Traders and their Retirement....a Three Part Video Series/Download

Wendy Kirkland reached out to us at The Crude Oil Trader a few weeks ago and shared her "Merit Paycheck" video series with us to review. Our review is in and the results are....All of our readers should watch this video.

She's a very smart lady with some tips for those traders and investors looking at retirement and she has bonus downloads and reports once you start watching to make sure you get the most out of it. In fact, what you learn in this training series can be easily duplicated by you right away without you buying a single thing.

Just click here to hear from Wendy and get her videos

As always we want to know what our readers are thinking so please feel free to leave a message and let us know what you think about Wendys methods.

See you in the markets,
Ray @ the Crude Oil Trader

Traders and their Retirement....a Three Part Video Series/Download

The 2 Energy Sectors You Should Invest in This Year

Top energy analyst Marin Katusa, frequently featured in the financial media such as Forbes, Business News, Financial Sense News Hour, and the Al Korelin Show, says two highly undervalued energy sectors will provide windfalls for smart investors this year.

Read his assessment, including which two energy sectors you should be bullish on for 2013....and which two you'd only lose money on. Click here for Marin's free report, The 2013 Energy Forecast.


Read "Fortune Favors the Bold Energy Investor"

Is Gold Close to Confirming a Breakout to All Time Highs

Is late summer or fall of 2012 going to be remembered for gold making a run to all time highs. Today David Banister gives us his take on where this gold market is headed in the near future......

Back in the fall of 2011 I was warning my subscribers and the public via articles to prepare for a large correction in the price of GOLD. The metal had experienced a primary wave 3 rally from $681 per ounce in the fall of 2008 to the upper $1800’s at the time of my warnings in the fall of 2011. A 34 Fibonacci month rally was sure to be followed by an 8-13 month consolidation period, or what I would term a Primary wave 4 correction pattern.

We have seen GOLD drop at low as the $1520’s during this expected 8-13 month window, but at this time it looks to me like a break over $1630 on a closing basis will put the nail in the wave 4 coffin. I expect GOLD to rally for about 8-13 months into at least June of 2013 and our longstanding target has been in the $2300 per ounce arena in US Dollar terms. Some pundits have much higher targets in the $3,500 per ounce or higher area but I am using my low end targets for reasonable accuracy.

This 5th wave up can be difficult to project because 5th waves in stock or metals markets can be what are called “Extension” waves. This means they can have a potentially much larger percentage movement relative to the prior waves 1 and 3 of the primary bull market since 2001. You can end up with a parabolic move at the end of wave 5, where those $3000 plus targets are possible. I expect the 5th wave to be about 61% of the amplitude of wave 3, which ran from 681 to 1923, or about $1242 per ounce. If we were to apply that math, we come up with $767 per ounce of rally off the wave 4 lows. $1520 plus $767 puts us at $2287 per ounce, or roughly $2300 an ounce low end target.

In summary, crowd behavior is crucial to the next coming movement in GOLD and it could be a sharp rally that catches many off guard, much like the downdraft last fall did the same to the Bulls. Be prepared to go long GOLD once over $1630 per ounce and buy dips along the way up to $2300 into the summer of 2013.

Receive our free weekly reports, just click here to sign up for a discounted subscription and get our reports daily on the SP 500 and GOLD.

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Natural Gas Steals The Headlines on EIA Injection Report

Today's story in Nat Gas is all about the weekly EIA injection report which came in below all of the market expectations today sending the market into an instant short covering rally that is still underway as of this writing. The inventory injection was below the market consensus as well as below last year and the five year average for the same week.

So far the weekly injections have underperformed for the entire injection season so far. This pattern will have to continue to avoid storage from hitting maximum capacity limitations before the end of the injection season (normally around the end of November to early December). Keep in mind in the short term the market will have limited upside as rising prices will eliminate the economic advantage of Nat Gas over coal for power generation.

This switching has contributed strongly to injections underperforming for the last three months. I still view this market as trading most of the time in the $2.25 to $2.50/mmbtu trading range.

Today's EIA report was bullish from the perspective that the injection was below the consensus level and bullish when compared to last year and the five year average injection level for the same week. The EIA injection was 7 BCF below the consensus (74 BCF) and below last year's injection and below the injection level for the five year average for the same week.

The net injection of 67 BCF was less than my model forecast (70 BCF) this week and at the very low end of the range of market projections. The inventory surplus narrowed modestly versus both last year and the more normal five year average also. The current inventory level is now 666 BCF above the five year average.

Video

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses todays spike in natural gas prices and the day's activity in the commodities markets and looks at where crude oil and precious metals are likely headed tomorrow.

David Banister: The Market Could Soon Bottom and Nobody Knows It

The prevailing universal sentiment is neutral to bearish by advisors and the general investing public.  Who can really blame them given the Euro Zone mess, the potential bank contagion collapse effect, and the weak economic trends both here and overseas.  However, the work I do is almost entirely behavioral based analysis looking at crowd or herd behavioral patterns. 

Right now, things are adding up to a market bottom as early as the October 7^th - 11^th window of time and no later than October 28^th . The figures I have had for a long time are 1088 for a bottom with a possible worst case spillover of 1055-1062 in the SP 500.  We are already eyeing the Gold stocks as bottoming out as well and have begun to nibble and will add on further dips.

Let’s examine some of the evidence and then look the charts as well:

1. Sentiment in recent individual investor surveys had only 25% of those polled bullish. Historically that average is 39% or higher.
2. The volatility index has been pegging  the 43-45 window recently and historically markets have major reversals anywhere from 45-50, with rare cases of that index  going over 50 without a major reversal
3. The German DAX index is carving out what looks like a bottom channel, and if it can hold the 5300 plus ranges, it could be a leading indicator of a US stock market run
4. Seasonally, markets tend to bottom in the September-October window with favorable patterns from November into March/April.
5. Historically, markets tend to correct hard with a “New Moon in Libra” which occurred last Tuesday, the same day the market peaked at 1196 and rolled over hard.  They often bottom with the following Full moon, which is scheduled for October 11^th.
6. Elliott Wave patterns I use indicate we are in the final 5^th wave stage since the 1370 Bin Laden highs, with a gap in the SP 500 chart at 1088 from September 2010 still to fill. That gap happens to coincide as 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2010 lows to the 2011 highs.  It’s also has a 50% Fibonacci correlation with the 1356 high to 1101 swing move this summer.

Bottom line is the SP 500 has withstood a ton of pots and pans and bad news over the past 8 weeks.  The market tends to price in a soft patch in the economy way before it becomes evident in the data. To wit, when we topped at 1370 in May of this year, it was an exact 78.6% retracement to the upside of the 2007 highs to 2009 lows.  The pullback to 1101 is an exact 38% Fibonacci retracement of the 2011 highs and the 2009 lows.  

Markets are not as random as everyone things, and if you can lay out a roadmap in advance and understand where key pivots are, you can swing the opposite direction of the herd and profit quite handsomely.  This is what I do every week at my Active Trading Partners.com trading service; go against the crowd for handsome profits.

Below are two charts showing two likely outcomes in the SP 500 index in the coming several days to few weeks:

Forewarned is forearmed as they say.  If you’d like to stay ahead of the curve on Gold, Silver, and the SP 500 on a consistent basis, take a look at Market Trend Forecast.com, where you can sign up for occasional free reports and/or take advantage of a temporary 33% off coupon to join us!

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EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.0 million barrels per day during the week ending October 30, 233 thousand barrels per day below the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 80.6 percent of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.0 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.0 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 8.1 million barrels per day last week, down 764 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 8.6 million barrels per day, 1.5 million barrels per day below the same
four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 1.1 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 197 thousand barrels per day last week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.0 million barrels from the previous week. At 335.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are near the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.3 million barrels last week, and are above the upper limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.4 million barrels, and are above the
upper boundary of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 1.4 million barrels last week and are in the upper half of the average range.....Read the entire report.

Crude Oil Falls, Lower Open Possible On Tuesday

Crude oil closed sharply lower on Monday and closed below the 20 day moving average crossing at 68.59 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If July extends today's decline, the 25% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 65.56 is the next downside target. Closes above last Friday's high crossing at 72.30 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 70.60
Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 72.30

First support is today's low crossing at 66.25
Second support is the 25% retracement level at 65.56

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Natural gas closed lower on Monday as it extended last week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If July extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.550 is the next downside target. From a broad perspective, July needs to close above 4.721 or below 3.395 to confirm a breakout of this spring's trading range and point the direction of the next trending move.

First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 4.387
Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.690

First support is today's low crossing at 3.860
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.550

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