Gold Option Trade – Will Gold Continue to Consolidate?

Until recently, the world has forgotten about gold and gold futures prices it would seem. A few years ago, all we heard about was gold and silver futures making new highs on the back of the Federal Reserve’s constant money printing schemes.

However, after a dramatic sell off the world of precious metals it became very quiet.


Gold prices have been in a giant basing or consolidation pattern for more than one year. As can clearly be seen below, gold futures prices have traded in a range between roughly 1,175 and 1,430 since June of 2013.





The past few weeks we have heard more about gold prices as we have seen a five week rally since late May. I would also draw your attention to the fact that gold futures also made a slightly higher low which is typically a bullish signal.


At this point in time, it appears quite likely that a possible test of the upper end of the channel is possible in the next few weeks / months. If price can push above 1,430 on the spot gold futures price a breakout could transpire that could see $150 or more added to the spot gold price.


Clearly there are a variety of ways that a trader could consider higher prices in gold futures. However, a basic option strategy can pay handsome rewards that will profit from a continued consolidation. The trade strategy is profitable as long as price stays within a range for a specified period of time. Ultimately this type of trade strategy involves the use of options and capitalizes on the passage of time.


The strategy is called an Iron Condor Strategy, however in order to make this trade worth while we would consider widening out the strikes to increase our profitability while simultaneously increasing our overall risk per spread. Consider the chart of GLD below which has highlighted the price range that would be profitable to the August monthly option expiration on August 15th.





As long as price stays in the range shown above, the GLD August Iron Condor Spread would be profitable. Clearly this strategy involves patience and the expectation that gold prices will continue to consolidate. This trade has the profit potential of $37 per spread, or a total potential return based on maximum possible risk of 13.62%. The probability based on today's implied volatility in GLD options for this spread to be profitable at expiration (August 15) is roughly 80%.


Our new option service specializes in identifying these types of consolidation setups and helps investors capitalize on consolidating chart patterns, volatility collapse, and profiting from the passage of time. And if you Advanced options trades are not your thing, we also provide Simple options where we buy either a call or put option based on the SP500 and VIX. The nice thing about buying calls and puts is that you can trade with an account as little as $2,500.


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Chris Vermeulen

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Chart of The Week - June Crude Oil Futures

As the week starts, our attention turns to the June Crude Oil futures (NYMEX:CL.M14.E). After gaining nearly $7/barrel in less than a month, the market has recently consolidated around $103.50/barrel as it begins to decide which direction it will take. It appears that some of the recent slowing of the market is due to profit taking, as the recent sharp up trend may have gained too much too soon.

There are a number of fundamental factors at play in the market, many of which seem to work in contrast with each other: support from Russia-Ukraine uncertainty, resistance from ample supply concerns, and improved demand prospects following solid U.S. Economic data last week. With a number of different fundamental factors in play – and uncertainty over which fundamental factor the market will focus on moving forward – I will focus on the technical aspects of the market for a potential trading opportunity.

Thursday’s range last week was consolidated within the previous day’s range and a move above or below that range should give us good direction to go off of. The market has started off weak this morning, and being close to $105/barrel resistance, I think that a correction off of this recent move is the more likely direction.

In the case of a move below last Thursday’s low print of 102.75, I would be a seller in this market as it will have broken this consolidation. If filled, I would place a protective stop order above Thursday’s high of $103.92. My short term target would be back down to the recent up trend line, rolling stops behind the position accordingly.

To take advantage of this move with a long term viewpoint, I would look to purchase relatively inexpensive call options and option spreads where risk on the position is limited to what you pay for the option.

Each week our trading partners at INO.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.


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Gold, Silver and Miners Remain Junk Grade Investments

Since silver and gold topped in 2011 investors have been struggling with these positions hoping this cyclical bull market for metals continues. The simple truth is no one knows for sure if prices will continue and make new highs and those who say its a for sure thing we all know deep down is full of bull crap.

All investments move in cycles, waves or trends which ever you want to call it. The market has 4 simple yet distinct stages each require a completely different skill set and trading tactics to navigate.

Stage 1 – After a period of decline a stock consolidates at a contracted price range as buyers step into the market and fight for control over the exhausted sellers. Price action is neutral as sellers exit their positions and buyers begin to accumulate the stock.

Stage 2 – Upon gaining control of price movement, buyers overwhelm sellers and a stock enters a period of higher highs and higher lows. A bull market begins and the path of least resistance is higher. Traders should aggressively trade the long side, taking advantage of any pullback or dips in the stock’s price.

Stage 3 – After a prolonged increase in share price the buyers now become exhausted and the sellers again move in. This period of consolidation and distribution produces neutral price action and precedes a decline in the stock’s price.

Stage 4 – When the lows of Stage 3 are breached a stock enters a decline as sellers overwhelm buyers. A pattern of lower highs and lower lows emerges as a stock enters a bear market. A well positioned trader would be aggressively trading the short side and taking advantage of the often quick declines in the stock’s price. More times than not all of stage 2 gains are given back in a short period of time.



Now that you know the stages and what it looks like its time to review the gold, silver and miners charts.

Gold Chart – Weekly

Gold has been in a bull market for several years but is starting to show its age in terms of the size of the price patterns, volume levels and extreme bullish sentiment. Back in 2011 a week before price topped we exited precious metals because the short term charts and volume levels were warning of a sharp drop. Since then I have not done many trades in either gold or silver because I do not like shorting in bull markets. Waiting for a bullish setup/price pattern before getting involved is my focus.

Gold has pulled back with a bullish 5 wave correction the last 5 months and at key support. While the long term charts are pointing to higher gold prices you must be aware that if gold and silver start to breakdown things will likely get ugly quickly. To be honest I do not care which way it goes, I just want it to either rally from support here and make new highs or breakdown and crash. Both will be very profitable if traded properly.



Silver Chart – Weekly

Silver has a very similar chart to that of its big sister (yellow gold). This shiny metal has the energy of a 3 year old making it a very volatile investment. I have touched on the topic of gold and silver being so called safe havens and if you have been reading my work for a while you know that any investment that can move 18-45% in value within 1 month is NOT a safe haven.

While it has done well in the past decade and boosted a lot of retirement accounts the day will come with these things collapse and most people holding them will give back most if not all the gains they had simply because people get attached to large positions and most do not know when to just exit a position.



Gold Miners Chart – Monthly

This chart gives me cold sweats because I know how many people own gold mining stocks and I know how fast these things can move. If the price closed below the green support line the bottom could fall out and be very painful for those who get paralyzed by denial and do nothing but watch their accounts lose value week after week.



Precious Metals Investing Conclusion:

In short, this report is to show you the very basics of how investments move in stages. It is also to show a warning that precious metals are technically very close to a major breakdown which the big money players are watching closely. This thinly traded sector can move extremely fast when everyone rushes for the door.

Do not get me wrong, I am not saying a crash is about to happen, actually it’s the opposite. All I am doing is planning the idea in your subconscious so that if prices continue to move lower you will remember that these price levels and take action with your investments. Remember, you can always buy the investment back at any time again if the outlook changes in a week, month or year.

Just click here to get My FREE Weekly Gold, Silver and Mining Reports and Trade with the Stages

Chris Vermeulen

ONG: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook for Saturday August 18th

It's Saturday and as always we like to check in with the great staff at Oil N'Gold to get their call on where crude oil is headed.....

Crude oil's rally continued last week and reached as high as 96.28 so far. Further rally is expected to continue to 61.8% retracement of 110.55 to 77.28 at 97.84. Though, note that rise from 77.28 could be the fourth leg inside the triangle pattern from 114.83. Hence, we'll be cautious on topping between 100 and 110. On the downside, below 92.68 minor support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, we'll stay bullish even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 114.83 are viewed either a three wave consolidation pattern that's completed at 77.28, or a five wave triangle pattern that's still unfolding. In case, break of 110.55 resistance will strongly suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for above 114.83. While another fall could be seen before an eventual upside breakout, downside should be contained above 77.28 support.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

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ONG: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook Saturday June 23rd

Gold and Silver on the Verge of Something Spectacular

From the staff at ONG......

Crude oil's decline resumed last week and dropped to as low as 77.56 before recovering mildly. As long as 84.34 resistance holds, deeper fall is still expected for 74.95 key support next. Though, we'd start to look for reversal signal below there. Meanwhile, break of 84.34 will argue that a short term bottom is at least formed, with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. In such case, stronger rebound should be seen back to 90 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 114.84 are developing into a three wave consolidation pattern with fall from 110.55 as the third leg. Deeper fall should eventually be seen to 74.95 low and possibly below. Though, we'd likely see strong support from 64.23 cluster level, 61.8% retracement of 33.20 to 114.83 at 64.38 and bring another medium term rise. Hence we'll look for reversal signal below 74.95.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

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Gold Still at Risk of a Large Downward Move Before the Rally

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday June 9th

From the staff at Oil N'Gold......

Crude oil turned into sideway consolidation after edging lower to 81.21 initially. Recovery was limited by 4 hours 55 EMA but there was no follow through selling. Initial bias is neutral this week and we'd likely see more consolidative trading ahead. Above 87.03 will bring another rise but upside should be limited by 92.21 resistance and bring fall resumption eventually. Below 81.21 will send crude oil through 80 psychological level to test on 74.95 key support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 114.84 are developing into a three wave consolidation pattern. And, the third leg should have already started at 110.55. Deeper fall should eventually be seen to 74.95 low and possibly below. Though, we'd likely see strong support from 64.23 cluster level, 61.8% retracement of 33.20 to 114.83 at 64.38 and bring another medium term rise. Hence we'll look for reversal signal below 74.95.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

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ONG: Gold Weekly Technical Outlook For Sunday April 15th

Gold's rebound last week was limited at 1681.3 and retreated. With 4 hours MACD crossed below signa line, initial bias is mildly on the downside this week. Also, note that with 1696.9 resistance intact, near term outlook remains bearish and fall from 1792.7 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1613 will target 1523.9 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, price actions form 1923.7 high are viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern. Fall from 1792.7 is viewed as one of the falling leg inside the pattern and should head back to 1478.3/1577.4 support zone. Nonetheless, we'd still expect strong support from 1478.3/1577.4 support zone to contain downside to finish the consolidation and bring up trend resumption to another high above 1923.7 eventually. On the upside, break of 1696.9 resistance will now argue that fall from 1792.7 is finished and turn focus back to this resistance instead.

In the long term picture, with 1478.3 support intact, there is no change in the long term bullish outlook in gold. While some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psychological level in the long run

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ONG: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Sunday April 1st

Crude oil dropped to as low as 102.13 last week as correction from 110.55 extended. Deeper fall could be seen initially this week but downside is expected to be contained by 61.8% retracement of 95.44 to 110.55 at 101.21 and bring rebound. Above 108.25 will indicate that such correction is finished and rally from 74.95 should then be resuming for 114.83 key resistance. However, sustained break of 101.21 fibo level will dampen this bullish view and turn focus back to 95.44 support.

In the bigger picture, the medium term up trend from 33.2 shouldn't be completed yet. Rise from 74.95 is indeed tentatively treated as resumption of such rally. Sustained break of 114.83 will target 61.8% projection of 33.2 to 114.83 from 74.95 at 125.40. On the downside, though, break of 95.44 support will indicate that correction pattern from 114.83 is going to extend further with another falling leg to 74.95 and below before completion.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

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ONG: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday March 10th

Crude oil dipped to 104.35 last week but drew support form 38.2% retracement of 95.44 to 110.55 at 104.78 and recovered. However, the recovery was weak so far and looks corrective. The development suggest that another decline would be seen as correction from 110.55 extends. Below 104.35 will target 61.8% retracement at 101.21. On the upside, break of 110.55 will confirm rally resumption for 114.83 key resistance. But before that, more consolidative trading would be seen first.

In the bigger picture, the medium term up trend from 33.2 shouldn't be completed yet. Rise from 74.95 is indeed tentatively treated as resumption of such rally. Sustained break of 114.83 will target 61.8% projection of 33.2 to 114.83 from 74.95 at 125.40. On the downside, though, break of 95.44 support will indicate that correction pattern from 114.83 is going to extend further with another falling leg to 74.95 and below before completion.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

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ONG: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday March 3rd

Crude oil attempted to extend recent rally last week and hit as high as 110.55. But upside was limited there on steep loss in momentum. A short term top is likely formed. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations. At this point, we'd expect downside of the consolidation to be contained by 38.2% retracement of 95.44 to 110.55 at 104.78 and bring rally resumption. Above 110.55 will target a test on 114.83 key resistance next.

In the bigger picture, the medium term up trend from 33.2 shouldn't be completed yet. Rise from 74.95 is indeed tentatively treated as resumption of such rally. Sustained break of 114.83 will target 61.8% projection of 33.2 to 114.83 from 74.95 at 125.40. On the downside, though, break of 95.44 support will indicate that correction pattern from 114.83 is going to extend further with another falling leg to 74.95 and below before completion.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

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ONG: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday February 25th

From the staff at Oil N Gold......

Crude oil's rally continued last week as expected and reached as high as 109.95 so far. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and current rise should target a test on 114.83 key resistance next. On the downside, below 107.95 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, the medium term up trend from 33.2 shouldn't be completed yet. Rise from 74.95 is indeed tentatively treated as resumption of such rally. Sustained break of 114.83 will target 61.8% projection of 33.2 to 114.83 from 74.95 at 125.40. On the downside, though, break of 95.44 support will indicate that correction pattern from 114.83 is going to extend further with another falling leg to 74.95 and below before completion.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

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Crude Oil Finding Support, Bulls Must Defend $93.50 to Avoid Major Chart Damage

It would appear that for the short term crude oil is finding support around the $95.50 a barrel area. A close below the $93.50 level seen on December 18th would confirm a double top, pivot point formation which would cause major chart damage and risk trading down into the $84 a barrel level. We do remain longer term positive on this market, however it needs to move and close over resistance at $100 to get its upside momentum into high gear. With only our monthly Trade Triangle positive, we expect we will see further market consolidation in crude oil. Long term traders should be long this market with appropriate money management stops.

Crude oil posted an inside day on Monday with a lower close. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If March extends January's decline, December's low crossing at 92.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 101.39 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 101.39. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 102.24. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 95.44. Second support is December's low crossing at 92.95.

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ONG: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday January 21st

Crude oil's recovery attempt was limited at 102.06 last week and weakened sharply since then. As noted before, consolidation pattern from 103.37 or 103.74 is still in progress. Initial bias is on the downside this week and break of 97.70 will target 100% projection of 103.74 to 97.70 from 102.06 at 96.02 and below. though, we'd expect strong support from 92.52 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 74.95 to 103.74 at 92.74). to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 102.06 will bring retest of 103.74 resistance.

In the bigger picture, pull back from 114.83 was completed at 74.95 already and medium term rally from 33.2 is not finished yet. We'd tentatively treat rise from 74.95 as resuming of such rally. Sustained break of 114.83 will target 61.8% projection of 33.2 to 114.83 from 74.95 at 125.40. On the downside, though, break of 92.52 support will indicate that correction pattern from 114.83 is going to extend further with another falling leg to 74.95 and below before completion.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

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Gold Trend Forecast for the 1st Quarter of 2012

Crude Oil Bulls Gaining Much Needed Momentum

Crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off last Friday's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2011 decline crossing at 105.23 is the next upside target.

If March renews this month's decline, December's low crossing at 92.95 is the next downside target. First resistance is this month's high crossing at 103.90. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2011 decline crossing at 105.23. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 97.93. Second support is December's low crossing at 92.95.

The consolidation in crude oil above the $98 a barrel level continues. We are longer term positive on this market, however it must move over resistance at $104 to get upside momentum into high gear. With a Chart Analysis Score of +90, this market is in a strong trend and with all our Trade Triangles in a positive mode we expect we will see this market breakout to the upside. Long and intermediate term traders should be long this market with appropriate money management stops.

Check out our gold trend forecast for the 1st quarter of 2012

ONG: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Sunday Jan. 8th

Crude oil rose further to as high as 103.74 last week but failed to sustain above 103.37 resistance and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week for some consolidations first. Nonetheless, near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 98.30 minor support holds. We'd expect rise form 74.95 to resume sooner or later. Above 103.74 will target 114.83 key resistance next. Though, break of 98.30 will dampen this bullish view and turn bias back to the downside for 92.52 support instead.

In the bigger picture, recent development indicates that pull back from 114.83 was completed at 74.95 already and medium term rally from 33.2 is not finished yet. We'd tentatively treat rise from 74.95 as resuming of such rally. Sustained break of 114.83 will target 61.8% projection of 33.2 to 114.83 from 74.95 at 125.40. On the downside, though, break of 92.52 support will indicate that correction pattern from 114.83 is going to extend further with another falling leg to 74.95 and below before completion.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

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ONG: Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Wednesday Jan. 4th

The retreat from 101.77 was relatively brief and crude oil got strong support from 4 hours 55 EMA. Subsequent rally sent crude oil back to 103.18 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 103.37 resistance. Break there will confirm that rise from 74.95 has resumed and should target 114.83 resistance next. On the downside, below 98.30 minor support will dampen this immediate bullish view and flip bias back to the downside to extend the consolidation from 103.37 instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 114.83 has finished at 74.95 already. The structure suggests it's merely a correction or part of a consolidation pattern. Hence, rise from 33.2 is not completed yet. As long as 89.16/17 support holds, we'd favor a break of 114.83 resistance to resume the rally from 33.2. However, break of 89.16/17 will indicate that rebound from 74.95 has completed and whole fall from 114.83 is possibly resuming for another low below 74.95.

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ONG: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Sunday Dec. 18th

Crude oil dropped to as low as 92.52 last week as correction from 103.37 resumed. Further decline is expected this week as long as 95.99 minor resistance holds. Current fall should extend to 138.2% projection of 103.37 to 94.99 from 102.44 at 90.86. On the upside, above 95.99 will indicate that a temporary low is at least formed and should flip bias back to the upside for rebound back to 100 psychological level and above.

In the bigger picture, fall from 114.83 has finished at 74.95 already. The structure suggests it's merely a correction or part of a consolidation pattern. Hence, rise from 33.2 is not finished yet. As long as 89.16/17 support holds, we'd favor a break of 114.83 resistance to resume the rally from 33.2. However, break of 89.16/17 will indicate that rebound from 74.95 has completed and whole fall from 114.83 is possibly resuming for another low below 74.95.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

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Precious Metals, Equities and Crude Oil Long Term Outlook

ONG: Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Tuesday Dec. 13th

Crude oil continues to stay in tight range above 97.36 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. As noted before, more consolidative trading would likely be seen below 103.37 high. Below 97.36 minor support will flip bias to the downside for 94.99 and possibly below. But in such case, downside is expected to be contained by 89.16/17 cluster support (50% retracement of 74.95 to 103.37) and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 103.37 will confirm resumption of recent rally and should target 114.83 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 114.83 has finished at 74.95 already. The structure suggests it's merely a correction or part of a consolidation pattern. Hence, rise from 33.2 is not finished yet. As long as 89.16/17 support holds, we'd favor a break of 114.83 resistance to resume the rally from 33.2. However, break of 89.16/17 will indicate that rebound from 74.95 has completed and whole fall from 114.83 is possibly resuming for another below 74.95.

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Gold’s 4th Wave Consolidation Nears Completion and Breakout

ONG: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook

Crude oil dipped to as low as 97.36 last week but recovered since then. Nonetheless, crude oil remains bounded in range of 94.99/103.37 and near term outlook remains neutral. More choppy sideway consolidation could still be seen. Below 97.36 minor support will flip bias to the downside for 94.99 and possibly below. But in such case, downside is expected to be contained by 89.16/17 cluster support (50% retracement of 74.95 to 103.37) and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 103.37 will confirm resumption of recent rally and should target 114.83 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 114.83 has finished at 74.95 already. The structure suggests it's merely a correction or part of a consolidation pattern. Hence, rise from 33.2 is not finished yet. As long as 89.16/17 support holds, we'd favor a break of 114.83 resistance to resume the rally from 33.2. However, break of 89.16/17 will indicate that rebound from 74.95 has completed and whole fall from 114.83 is possibly resuming for another below 74.95.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

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Gold’s 4th Wave Consolidation Nears Completion and Breakout

ONG: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday November 26th

Crude oil rose to as high as 103.37 last week but failed to sustain above 100 psychological level and retreated. A short term top should be formed and initial bias is mildly on the downside for deeper pull back towards 94.65 support. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 89.16/17 cluster support (50% retracement of 74.95 to 103.37) and bring rebound. On the upside, above 100.15 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 103.37 resistance is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, we'll stay near term neutral and expect more sideway trading first.

In the bigger picture, current development indicates the fall from 114.83 has finished at 74.95. The structure suggests it's merely a correction or part of a consolidation pattern. Hence, rise from 33.2 is not finished yet. As long as 89.16/7 support holds, we'd now favor a break of 114.83 resistance to resume the rally from 33.2. Meanwhile, break of 64.23 support is needed to confirm completion of the whole rise from 33.2. Otherwise, we'll continue to stay bullish in crude oil.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

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