From the staff at ONG......
Crude oil's decline resumed last week and dropped to as low as 77.56 before recovering mildly. As long as 84.34 resistance holds, deeper fall is still expected for 74.95 key support next. Though, we'd start to look for reversal signal below there. Meanwhile, break of 84.34 will argue that a short term bottom is at least formed, with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. In such case, stronger rebound should be seen back to 90 psychological level.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 114.84 are developing into a three wave consolidation pattern with fall from 110.55 as the third leg. Deeper fall should eventually be seen to 74.95 low and possibly below. Though, we'd likely see strong support from 64.23 cluster level, 61.8% retracement of 33.20 to 114.83 at 64.38 and bring another medium term rise. Hence we'll look for reversal signal below 74.95.
In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.
Nymex crude oil continuous contract 4 hour, daily, weekly and monthly charts
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