Webinar Replay...Low Risk Setups For Trading Precise Turning Points in Any Market

On September 6th John Carter of Simpler Options treated us to a special online training webinar. We discovered low risk option strategies for catching "bold and beautiful" reversal trades. John also showed us how to hunt for tops and bottoms using low risk setups for trading precise turning points in any market and so much more.

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Most traders have no idea how to capture the massive profit potential from trading major reversals. These days’ markets often turn on a dime and those who wait for ‘conservative’ setups either miss out or suffer steep losses.

Here's what you can expect to learn during this webinar session....

  *  A simple 3-step process to identify major market turning points in any market

  *  How to find low risk, high probability trades in today's volatile market conditions

  *  Why it’s finally possible to catch tops and bottoms in real time on almost any chart

  *  Why these ‘Bold and Beautiful’ reversal trades can be safer than ‘comfortable’ trades

  *  How to avoid getting suckered into the costly traps that most traders fall into

  *  How to adapt your trades automatically for choppy conditions AND big trends

  *  How to know when a support or resistance level is likely to hold or not


       Watch the FREE replay Right Here


       See you in the markets,
       Ray Parrish
       aka the Crude Oil Trader


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It Can’t Wait Any Longer – It's Deja Vu in the Markets

The stock market tends to repeat itself on a regular basis. Why? Because it moves mainly based on the emotions of market participants, with the exception of extreme times when the masses are moving the market with extreme fear or greed, at which point they are flooding the market with buy or sell orders to create a final pop or drop in the market just before a major market reversal.

As with everything in the universe, everything moves in cycles, periods of expansion and contraction, and there are regular wave like patterns that happen on a regular basis no matter the time frame one is reviewing on a stock chart.

Here are three charts, each showing a similar price pattern of extreme washout lows, followed by roughly a 1 1/2 month rally taking investors on a roller coaster ride from fear and complete panic to greedy "know it alls". In short [no pun intended] U.S. large cap stocks look and feel toppy here. I feel a correction is likely to take place any day now, and the big question is “how much will the stock market pullback? Will it be another 4-5% correction similar to the chart examples above? Or will it be something larger 8-15% correction?

Chris Vermeulen


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The Reversal of Fortunes Options System....Yours FREE!

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This powerful system will identify reversal patterns in today's hottest markets like Apple, Google, and the Dow. In this webinar, we'll give you specific, step by step instructions on how to use this setup day in and day out. You'll receive the software, trade plans and complete video training.

These killer indicators can be used to profit in the options markets in literally minutes per day at no cost to you. Only traders attending this webinar will be able to bring home this options system so make sure you get your seat in advance and we'll see you on Tuesday.

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Tuesday, April 8th @ 12:00pm EDT/9:00am PDT/4:00pm GMT.....Click Here to Register Now

Tuesday, April 8th @ 7:00pm EDT/4:00pm PDT/11:00pm GMT.....Click Here to Register Now

See you Tuesday evening,
Ray @ The Crude Oil Trader


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Weekly Futures Market Recap - SP 500, Bonds, Gold, Coffee

It's the weekend and that means it's time to check in with Michael Seery of INO.com for his weekly recap of the Futures market. Seery has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets......


The S&P 500 rose sharply this Friday afternoon after finishing lower for 5 consecutive trading days which is very rare in the month of December as this Friday afternoon prices finished up 19 points at 1803 and remember the fact we have not have a down day on a Friday since early October as Friday generally is a positive up day going into the weekend.

I’ve been recommending a long position in the S&P 500 for quite some time I do believe we will continue to move higher possibly up to the 1850 level here by New Year’s as there’s no other game in town with excellent earnings and the possibility of tapering coming after the monthly unemployment number which showed 203, 000 new jobs with an unemployment rate of 7.0% which was considered very bullish despite the fact that there could be tapering of US bonds soon , but that story is becoming old sending prices sharply higher right near all time highs once again.

The NASDAQ 100 is up 25 points at 3503 despite the fact that Apple Computer was down nearly $8 as investors are still in love with the technology sector especially after a minor setback that it had the last week and I still suggest you be bullish either with options or outright futures positions. The NASDAQ 100 cash index I believe will break 4500 which is the next stop which will take a couple of months in my opinion but prices remain strong.

Both of these markets are still trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average despite the five day losing streak & that just shows you how far prices have comes to the upside and I do think there’s more good news around the world which should prop up stock prices especially with low interest rates in Europe and the Japanese continuing their QE programs which will prop up the Nikkei so across the world bullish news will continue to push equity prices higher.

Bond Futures

The 5 year note sold off sharply this Friday afternoon hitting a 6 week low before rallying to finish down 3 ticks at 120-08 as the monthly unemployment was construed bullish the stock market and bearish bonds because of the possibility of tapering. I'm recommending a short position in the five year note as the government cannot continue to print forever and one day if you're a long-term investor this will pay off as interest rates will start to rise eventually as the five year note is only yielding 1.50% at the present time. This is an excellent market with low volatility compared to many of the other commodity markets and it has excellent chart structure and I'm recommending outright futures contract to the downside & If you are long term investor I would continue to sell the five year note futures and I would not place a stop because I would hold on continuing to rollover for years to come because the five year note eventually could go back up to 4% or 5% which would be a huge gain if you are short the futures for the entire time and that could take several years but will pay you off in the long run in my opinion. The five year note is now trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average and it looks like a possible head and shoulders top has been formed so take a shot at the downside.

The 10 year note is currently trading at 124-09 in the March contract finishing lower for the 3rd straight trading session and it also looks like its topped out so I'm recommending a short position placing your stop above 125.20 risking around $1,500 per contract as I do think prices will retest at 120 level down the road as the yield on the 10 year stands at 2.89% as people are rotating out of bonds and continue to pour money into the S&P 500 which I think will continue for the rest of the year so sell rallies in the bond market. Trend....mixed. Chart Structure....excellent.

Gold Futures

The monthly unemployment report came out at this morning stating that we added 203, 000 new jobs which was construed very bullish sending the stock market higher and gold lower due to the fact of tapering possibly happening as soon as March as the unemployment rate is now 7.0% as traders see no reasonable to own gold as the economy here in the United States and around the world are improving dramatically sending the S&P right near record highs once again today and selling off gold by $4 at 1,228 currently here on the night session this Friday afternoon in New York. Gold is trading below its 20 & 100 day moving average continuing its bearish trend hitting a 5 month low with major support at 1,210 which was hit twice this week and rebounded but it looks to me that we almost certainly have to retest 1,180 which was last summer’s low. Trend lower....Chart structure....excellant.

Coffee Futures

Coffee in the March contract closed down over 450 points this week at 106.40 reversing earlier gains hitting a 4 week high at 1 point trading up at 112.90 on Wednesday before a major reversal sent it right back down into its recent trading range as many the commodity markets were sharply higher this week but the coffee fundamentals still at this time remain bearish. If your bullish coffee prices as we’ve have had a nice sideways channel for over 4 weeks and that’s what to look for in a bottoming pattern so my recommendation would be to buy a futures contract at today’s price placing a stop below the contract low at 104 risking around $1,100 per contract but I remain neutral on coffee because there really is no trend right now. It would not surprise me if you get a snap back to the upside like we’ve gotten in oil, gold, and silver prices today as massive short covering is taking place and that could happen in coffee as well because of the short interest currently. Trend....neutral. Chart structure excellent.

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Upside Reversal in Crude Oil Gives the Bulls Momentum

October crude oil posted an upside reversal on Tuesday ending a two day decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 106.34 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If October renews this summer's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 114.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 112.24. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 114.83. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 106.34. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 103.50.

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October Henry natural gas closed higher on Tuesday and tested the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.680. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October extends this month's rally, the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.457 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.680. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.457. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.154.

Ready to start trading crude oil? Start right here....Advanced Crude Oil Study – 15 Minute Range

The September S&P 500 closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates above the 50% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1629.45. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1611.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1659.67 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1649.80. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1659.67. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 1625.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 1611.47.

Day Trading History of 16 Major Candlestick Patterns

October gold closed higher on Tuesday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1361.90 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 1489.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 1432.90. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1489.00. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1396.10. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1361.90.

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ONG: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook for Saturday August 18th

It's Saturday and as always we like to check in with the great staff at Oil N'Gold to get their call on where crude oil is headed.....

Crude oil's rally continued last week and reached as high as 96.28 so far. Further rally is expected to continue to 61.8% retracement of 110.55 to 77.28 at 97.84. Though, note that rise from 77.28 could be the fourth leg inside the triangle pattern from 114.83. Hence, we'll be cautious on topping between 100 and 110. On the downside, below 92.68 minor support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, we'll stay bullish even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 114.83 are viewed either a three wave consolidation pattern that's completed at 77.28, or a five wave triangle pattern that's still unfolding. In case, break of 110.55 resistance will strongly suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for above 114.83. While another fall could be seen before an eventual upside breakout, downside should be contained above 77.28 support.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

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CME Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Report for Friday July 13th

August crude oil prices established a higher high during the initial morning hours, helped by a rebound in risk taking sentiment in the wake of an as expected Chinese GDP report. While China's second quarter growth slowed to a pace not seen in three years, the reading appeared to inspire greater speculation for more economic stimulus. That is seen as a force bolstering the demand prospects for crude oil. The market also appears to be supported by reports of tighter North Sea supplies and greater US sanctions against Iran.

August natural gas prices traded in a tight overnight range as they consolidated yesterday's upside reversal action. This came after the market soldoff in reaction to yesterdays EIA storage data that showed a slightly larger than expected injection of 33 bcf. Total storage stands at 3,135 bcf or 19.7% above the 5 year average. Over the last four weeks natural gas storage has increased 191 bcf. Some traders viewed the EIA storage data as a positive because the weekly injection was about one third of the longer term average injection for this week of the year.

Gold traded nearly flat, but remained on course for a second consecutive week of losses as worries about the euro zone debt crisis and the absence of stimulus measures in the United States buoyed the dollar and its safe haven appeal. Spot gold was little changed at $1,570.14 an ounce, heading for a weekly decline of 0.8 percent.

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ONG: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook Saturday June 23rd

Gold and Silver on the Verge of Something Spectacular

From the staff at ONG......

Crude oil's decline resumed last week and dropped to as low as 77.56 before recovering mildly. As long as 84.34 resistance holds, deeper fall is still expected for 74.95 key support next. Though, we'd start to look for reversal signal below there. Meanwhile, break of 84.34 will argue that a short term bottom is at least formed, with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. In such case, stronger rebound should be seen back to 90 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 114.84 are developing into a three wave consolidation pattern with fall from 110.55 as the third leg. Deeper fall should eventually be seen to 74.95 low and possibly below. Though, we'd likely see strong support from 64.23 cluster level, 61.8% retracement of 33.20 to 114.83 at 64.38 and bring another medium term rise. Hence we'll look for reversal signal below 74.95.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

Nymex crude oil continuous contract 4 hour, daily, weekly and monthly charts

Gold Still at Risk of a Large Downward Move Before the Rally

ONG: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday February 25th

From the staff at Oil N Gold......

Crude oil's rally continued last week as expected and reached as high as 109.95 so far. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and current rise should target a test on 114.83 key resistance next. On the downside, below 107.95 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, the medium term up trend from 33.2 shouldn't be completed yet. Rise from 74.95 is indeed tentatively treated as resumption of such rally. Sustained break of 114.83 will target 61.8% projection of 33.2 to 114.83 from 74.95 at 125.40. On the downside, though, break of 95.44 support will indicate that correction pattern from 114.83 is going to extend further with another falling leg to 74.95 and below before completion.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly, Monthly Charts


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ONG: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday January 21st

Crude oil's recovery attempt was limited at 102.06 last week and weakened sharply since then. As noted before, consolidation pattern from 103.37 or 103.74 is still in progress. Initial bias is on the downside this week and break of 97.70 will target 100% projection of 103.74 to 97.70 from 102.06 at 96.02 and below. though, we'd expect strong support from 92.52 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 74.95 to 103.74 at 92.74). to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 102.06 will bring retest of 103.74 resistance.

In the bigger picture, pull back from 114.83 was completed at 74.95 already and medium term rally from 33.2 is not finished yet. We'd tentatively treat rise from 74.95 as resuming of such rally. Sustained break of 114.83 will target 61.8% projection of 33.2 to 114.83 from 74.95 at 125.40. On the downside, though, break of 92.52 support will indicate that correction pattern from 114.83 is going to extend further with another falling leg to 74.95 and below before completion.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

Gold Trend Forecast for the 1st Quarter of 2012

ONG: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday November 26th

Crude oil rose to as high as 103.37 last week but failed to sustain above 100 psychological level and retreated. A short term top should be formed and initial bias is mildly on the downside for deeper pull back towards 94.65 support. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 89.16/17 cluster support (50% retracement of 74.95 to 103.37) and bring rebound. On the upside, above 100.15 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 103.37 resistance is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, we'll stay near term neutral and expect more sideway trading first.

In the bigger picture, current development indicates the fall from 114.83 has finished at 74.95. The structure suggests it's merely a correction or part of a consolidation pattern. Hence, rise from 33.2 is not finished yet. As long as 89.16/7 support holds, we'd now favor a break of 114.83 resistance to resume the rally from 33.2. Meanwhile, break of 64.23 support is needed to confirm completion of the whole rise from 33.2. Otherwise, we'll continue to stay bullish in crude oil.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

Oil N' Gold: Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Thursday Oct. 20th

Crude oil's break of 85.55 minor support argues that whole rebound from 74.95 has completed at 89.51, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Intraday bias is back to the downside and break of 83.17 support should confirm this bearish case and target a test on 74.95 low. On the upside, in case of another rise, we'd continue to expect upside to be limited by 90.52 resistance (38.2% retracement of 114.83 to 74.95 at 90.18) and bring resumption of whole decline from 114.83. However, note that decisive break of 90.52 will argue that crude oil has completed a double bottom reversal pattern (75.71, 74.95) and would bring stronger rise through 100.62 resistance.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 33.2 is treated as the second leg of consolidation pattern from 147.24 and should have finished at 114.83 already. Current decline should target next key cluster support at 64.23 (61.8% retracement of 33.2 to 114.83 at 64.38) next. Sustained break will pave the way to retest 33.2 low. On the other hand, note that the fall from 114.83 is note clearly displaying an impulsive structure yet. Break of 90.52 will argue that price actions from 114.83 could merely be forming a sideway consolidation pattern and rise from 33.2 might still extend beyond 114.83 before completion.

Check out Oil N' Gold.Com for the Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily and Monthly Charts

Adam Hewison: Was Last Week’s Market Rally a Head Fake?

Last week, the equity markets rallied along with many other markets. We felt at the time this was a counter trend rally and with Monday’s action we have probably put in an interim top. We also expressed the feeling that professional traders would be selling against the recent highs around 1220 to 1230 basis the S&P 500 index.

The rally was pretty unusual in the fact that it was on very light volume and it took off to the upside very quickly without any kind of market consolidation.

This is going to be a big week! Are we going to continue going up? Or are we going to see the longer term downtrend kick in? A downside reversal could be quite dramatic. This also holds true for the crude oil market, which has been mirroring the US equity markets.

The problems in Europe remain and we see little reason to celebrate any victories on that front. Greece will eventually default, and it remains to be seen if Ireland, Spain and Italy will dodge a bullet.

Every week it seems we go from “the world is coming to an end” to euphoria. Eventually the markets will sort out this conundrum. Our view longer term remains with our Trade Triangle technology which remains negative on the equity markets indicating long term weakness.

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J.W. Jones: Is The S&P 500 on the Verge of a Big Rally

Only 5 short months ago the S&P 500 was trading at the 2011 highs around the 1,370 price level on the S&P 500 Index. Since then, the price action has devastated investors and traders alike. As of the close on Monday, the S&P 500 had worked over 270 handles lower in 5 months. The price action since September 27^th has been a bloodbath.

It is true that the S&P 500 could be carving out a double bottom on the daily chart, but I am of the opinion that there may be more work to do to the downside. We are oversold on the daily and weekly price charts, but I have yet to see the kind of panic level selling that typically precedes a price reversal. The chart below illustrates the number of stocks that are currently trading above the key 50 period moving average:



While most market participants are concerned about a trap door that causes prices to cascade lower, I am concerned that at some point news will come out that could rip the bears’ faces off. The majority of retail investors are running for cover. The sentiment levels are decidedly bearish and the last thing most traders are looking for is a rally. The contrarian trader in me cannot deny that a rally would do a lot of damage in the near future, but Mr. Market needs to suck in a few more bears in order to do the most harm.

One sound bite out of Europe could alter the price action almost instantly in favor of the bulls. The ECB could suddenly cut interest rates or announce that Eurobonds are going to be made available. Either two headlines or a combination of both headlines would most likely drive prices significantly higher.

After the nasty downside probe today, there are layers of buy stops above current price levels. If price worked high enough, the stops would be triggered and an all out rally could play out. Anything coming out of the Eurozone that appears to be either stimulative or that appears to push an ultimatum out on the time spectrum will be viewed as positive.

Often news and price action play out together at key support/resistance levels and it would make sense that some form of announcement will be made when the S&P 500 price is sitting right at a long term support level. As can be seen from the weekly chart of the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) below, the 1,008 – 1,050 price level is of critical importance.



The primary support levels I am watching on the S&P 500 if it continues lower are the 1,080 price level which should act as short term support. If that level breaks the 1,050 area will become a major support level that bulls will likely defend fervently. Additional long term support will come in around 1,008. I would be shocked to see the S&P 500 push through both the 1,050 and the 1,008 price level on the first attempt, but stranger things have happened.

If price works down to the 1,008 – 1,050 support zone it would not be shocking to see a strong reversal higher. With the recent carnage we have seen in the S&P 500, I find it hard to believe that we could see another 10 – 15% more downside before a reversal plays out. The 1,008 – 1,050 price zone seems ripe for a test, but one other scenario would be a test of the 1,080 support zone that fails intraday and by the close is regained. The chart below illustrates the two most probable scenarios:



Financial markets do not offer a sure thing, however it is without question that bulls will aggressively defend the 1,008 – 1,050 price level on the S&P 500. If that level fails, the price action is going to get far worse and an all out crash could be underway. For now, I am of the opinion we are within 7% – 8% of an intermediate term bottom which could produce a strong multi month rally into the holiday season.

As always anything could happen, but traders need to keep their eye on both sides of the price action. A rally would do a lot of damage to the bears as well as the under invested retail traders and investors. Ultimately the price action is in the hands of Mr. Market, but it is a well known fact that Mr. Market likes to trap traders and inflict pain on as many market participants as possible. A forthcoming rally  would offer yet another opportunity for a lot of traders to eat another slice of humble pie.

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Oil N' Gold: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Sunday Sept. 25th

Crude oil dropped sharply to as low as 77.55 last week and the development affirmed the case that consolidation from 75.71 is finished at 90.52 and whole decline from 114.83 is resuming. Initial bias remains on the downside this week with 82.21 minor resistance intact. Retest of 75.71 should be seen first. Break will target 70 psychological level and then 100% projection of 100.62 to 75.51 from 90.52 at 65.60. On the upside, above 82.21 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 85.68) and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 33.2 is treated as the second leg of consolidation pattern from 147.24 and should have finished at 114.83 already. Current decline should target next key cluster support at 64.23 (61.8% retracement of 33.2 to 114.83 at 64.38) next. Sustained break will pave the way to retest 33.2 low. On the upside, break of 90.52 resistance is needed to invalidate this view or we'll stay bearish in crude oil now.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2, second wave might be finished. Upon confirmation of medium term reversal, the third wave of the pattern should have started for a retest on 33.2 low.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Natural Gas Weekly Technical Outlook For Sunday Nov. 21st

Natural gas's strong rebound form 3.71 retained the bullish case. That is, it should have bottomed at 3.255 already. Break of 4.249 resistance will indicate that such rebound has resumed and should target falling trend line resistance (now at 4.4 level). On downside, however, break of 3.71 will now confirm that rebound from 3.255 has completed and will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 3.255 low.

In the bigger picture, current development raises the possibility that fall from 6.108 has indeed finished with three waves down to 3.255. That is, it's merely a correction to rebound from 2.409. There is no confirmation of reversal yet and key focus will be on mentioned trend line resistance from 6.108, now at around 4.4 level. Sustained break there will likely pave the way the another high above 6.108 in medium term. Though, a break below 3.255 will turn focus back to 2.409 low instead.

In the longer term picture, question remains on whether 2.409 is the long term bottom already. Downside momentum since 6.108 is so far not too convincing and it looks like 2.409 won't be violated even in case of another fall. On the other hand, natural gas is still limited well below 55 weeks EMA and 55 months EMA and there is no confirmation of reversal yet. We'll stay neutral before a break of 5.194 resistance.

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts


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Oil N' Gold: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday Nov. 20th

Crude oil dropped to as low as 80.06 last week before forming a temporary low there and turned sideway. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some consolidations would be seen first. However, note that another fall remains in favor as long as 84.52 minor resistance holds. Below 80.06 will target 61.8% retracement of 70.76 to 88.63 at 77.59 and below. Though, above 84.52 will flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 88.63 high.

In the bigger picture, the steeper than expected fall from 88.63 is mixing up the outlook and argue that rise from 64.23 is possibly finished with three waves up to 88.63. In other words, it could be the second wave of consolidation from 87.17 and the third wave might have just started. We'll now slightly favor more decline as long as 88.63 resistance holds. Nevertheless, medium term rise from 33.2 is treated as the second wave of the consolidation pattern that started at 147.27. As long as 64.23 support holds, medium term rise from 33.2 is still in favor to extend to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 and possibly higher before completion.

In the long term picture, rebound from 33.2 is not finished yet. But overall view remains unchanged. Crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2, second wave from there unfolding. Current development suggests that a breach of 61.8% retracement at 103.70 is likely. But we'll then start to focus on reversal signal again above 103.70.

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Natural Gas Weekly Technical Outlook For Sunday Nov. 14th

Natural gas edged higher to 4.269 last week but failed to sustain gain and pulled back into prior range. Initial bias remains neutral this week and we'd probably see some sideway trading. But after all, rise from 3.255 is in favor to continue as long as 3.743 support holds. Break of 4.249 will target falling trend line resistance (now at 4.4). However, break of 3.743 support will indicate that rebound is finished and flip bias back to the downside for retesting this low.

In the bigger picture, current development raises the possibility that fall from 6.108 has indeed finished with three waves down to 3.255, and failed 100% projection of 6.108 to 3.81 from 5.194 at 2.896. That is, it's merely a correction to rebound from 2.409. There is no confirmation of reversal yet and key focus will be on mentioned trend line resistance from 6.108, now at around 4.4 level. Sustained break there will likely pave the way the another high above 6.108 in medium term. Though, a break below 3.255 will turn focus back to 2.409 low instead.

In the longer term picture, question remains on whether 2.409 is the long term bottom already. Downside momentum since 6.108 is so far not too convincing and it looks like 2.409 won't be violated even in case of another fall. On the other hand, natural gas is still limited well below 55 weeks EMA and 55 months EMA and there is no confirmation of reversal yet. We'll stay neutral before a break of 5.194 resistance.

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Oil N'Gold: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday Nov. 6th

Crude oil finally broken out of the consolidations from 84.43 and resumed the up trend to as high as 87.43. The close above 87.15 key resistance indicates that medium term rise is resuming. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rally should be seen to 100% projection of 64.23 to 82.97 from 70.76 at 89.50 next. On the downside, below 85.96 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But break of 79.25 support is needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, the close above 87.15 key resistance indicates that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has resumed. Such rise is treated as the second wave of the consolidation pattern that started at 147.27. Further should now be seen towards 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 103.70. On the downside, break of 64.23 support is needed to confirm that crude oil has topped. Otherwise, we won't turn bearish.

In the long term picture, rebound from 33.2 is not finished yet. But overall view remains unchanged. Crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2, second wave from there unfolding. Current development suggests that a breach of 61.8% retracement at 103.70 is likely. But we'll then start to focus on reversal signal again above 103.70.

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Mid-Week Market Report on Equities and Metals

It's been an interesting week with stocks, commodities and currencies having a knee jerk reaction to the FOMC minutes released Tuesday afternoon. In short the Fed clearly said there must be more quantitative easing before things will get better. It was this news which triggered a rally in both stocks and commodities. Quantitative easing is a fast way to devalue the dollar and the Fed is doing a great job at that. As long as the dollar continues to decline the stock market will keep rising.

This week kicked off earning season with INTC and JPM beating analyst estimates. We usually see the market trade up the first week of earnings and then start to sell off by the end of earnings season. Both INTC and JPM sold off on strong volume today despite the good earnings and today’s broad market rally. This just goes to show the market has not forgot about buy on rumor sell on news… The big/smart money sold into the morning gaps exiting at a premium price. Is this foreshadowing for what is to come?

Take a look at the chart below which shows the falling dollar and how its helping to boost stocks and commodities.

While earnings season is trying to steal the spot light in the market, the fact is everything for the past 2 months has been about the US Dollar. If you put a chart of the dollar and the SP500 together they trade almost tick for tick in reverse directions. The amount of money getting pumped into the market cannot last and it will lead to a huge volume reversal day in due time. Until this happens the market will trade higher.

Taking a look at the SPY daily chart the 5, 10, and 14 simple moving averages tend to act as buy zones. The market was choppy from April until about 2 months ago. Now we are seeing the market smooth out and traders are switching to more of a trend trading strategy and not so much looking for extreme sentiment levels which typically signal short term tops and bottoms. Focusing on buying at these moving averages has been providing good support thus far. Stops should be set on a closing basis, meaning if the market is to close below the moving average then exiting the position is a safe play. It’s always best to layer your stops (scale out) in trending market. So stops below the 5, 10, 14 and even the 20ma will provide you with enough wiggle room to riding a trend.

Mid-Week Trading Conclusion:
In short, we are in a strong uptrend and until we get a major reversal day, buying the market is the way to go. The market as we all know is way over bought so if you decide to take a position on your own, be sure to keep it small. I would also like to note that financial stocks were the worst performing on the day so that could be telling us there could be some profit taking in the next day or two.

Chris Vermeulen
The Gold And Oil Guy.com

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