CME Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Report for Friday July 13th

August crude oil prices established a higher high during the initial morning hours, helped by a rebound in risk taking sentiment in the wake of an as expected Chinese GDP report. While China's second quarter growth slowed to a pace not seen in three years, the reading appeared to inspire greater speculation for more economic stimulus. That is seen as a force bolstering the demand prospects for crude oil. The market also appears to be supported by reports of tighter North Sea supplies and greater US sanctions against Iran.

August natural gas prices traded in a tight overnight range as they consolidated yesterday's upside reversal action. This came after the market soldoff in reaction to yesterdays EIA storage data that showed a slightly larger than expected injection of 33 bcf. Total storage stands at 3,135 bcf or 19.7% above the 5 year average. Over the last four weeks natural gas storage has increased 191 bcf. Some traders viewed the EIA storage data as a positive because the weekly injection was about one third of the longer term average injection for this week of the year.

Gold traded nearly flat, but remained on course for a second consecutive week of losses as worries about the euro zone debt crisis and the absence of stimulus measures in the United States buoyed the dollar and its safe haven appeal. Spot gold was little changed at $1,570.14 an ounce, heading for a weekly decline of 0.8 percent.

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CME Recap Energy Market Report For Friday July 6th

August crude oil prices trended lower throughout the session, weighed down by rising Spanish borrowing costs and a weaker than expected read on June US Non Farm Payrolls. Added downside pressure in the crude oil market came on talk that the oil workers strike in Norway could be nearing a resolution. A rally in the US dollar and weakness in global equity markets put added pressure on the global oil demand backdrop.

This morning's EIA natural gas storage report showed a smaller than expected weekly injection of 39 bcf. August natural gas garnered modest support in the moments following the report, but concerns that prices near the $3.00 level could reduce demand, relative to coal, pressured prices back below $2.80.

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CME: Morning Crude Oil Market Report for Tuesday July 3rd

August crude oil prices traded sharply higher during the initial morning hours, supported by hopes for more global central bank intervention to stimulate growth and better than expected Chinese service sector data overnight. Other crude specific fundamentals supporting the morning gain come from the ongoing oil workers strike in Norway that has reduced North Sea output and a growing fear premium in the market in response to reports that Iranian lawmakers have drafted a bill to cut oil tanker traffic in the Straits of Hormuz. Expectations for this week's delayed EIA crude stocks report are for a draw in the range of 2.25 to 2.5 million barrels.

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CME: Natural Gas Prices Holding at Upper End of Trading Range

Natural Gas prices are continuing to trade around the upper end of the trading range on lighter than normal volume (likely related to the holiday this week in the US) as the very hot weather across major portions of the US results in a larger than normal call on Nat Gas for power related cooling demand versus the possible loss of Nat Gas demand as the economics of coal to gas switching continues to fade at current price levels. The economics of coal to gas switching are hovering around the unchanged level between coal and Nat Gas and at a level where utilities could begin to move back to coal in light of the overstocked coal inventory situation at many utility facilities.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Spikes as Euro Leaders Relax Spains Debt Conditions

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CME: August crude oil prices traded sharply higher during the early morning hours, helped by an EU agreement aimed at relaxing borrowing costs in Spain and Italy. Risk assets across the globe appeared to embrace an agreement, and that has fostered ideas that global oil demand could turn higher. In addition to easing concerns over the European debt debacle, the crude oil market has also drafted support from tightening North Sea supply concerns.

COT: Crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates around the 62% retracement level of the 2009-2012 rally crossing at 80.33. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.31 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August extends this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.31. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.32. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 77.28. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28.

Bloomberg: Crude posted its steepest intraday gain in eight months, increasing as much as 4.5 percent and trimming the biggest quarterly decline since the final three months of 2008. Oil gained after euro area leaders agreed to relax conditions on emergency loans for Spanish banks and possible help for Italy. Prices may advance after the European Union’s ban on the purchase, transport, financing and insurance of Iranian crude starts on July 1, a Bloomberg survey showed. Norway’s first industrywide energy strike since 2004 is in its sixth day.

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Crude Oil Market Commentary for Thursday Morning June 28th

CME: August crude oil prices waffled between gains and losses throughout the initial morning hours, amid uncertainty ahead of the EU summit and slowing global growth prospects. The outside market tone provided a modest drag for the crude oil, with global equity markets weaker and slight gains in the US dollar. Additionally, slowing growth concerns have offset concerns that North Sea supplies have come under added strain from an oil worker strike in Norway. August crude oil prices climbed to a new four day high in response to yesterday's EIA data that showed an inventory decline of 133,000 barrels last week. EIA crude stocks are 27.697 million barrels above year ago levels and 41.847 million barrels above the five year average. Crude oil imports for the week stood at 9.118 million barrels per day compared to 9.445 million barrels the previous week. The refinery operating rate was up 0.7% to 92.6%, which compares to 88.1% last year and the five year average of 88.55%.

COT: Crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates around the 62% retracement level of the 2009-2012 rally crossing at 80.33. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.56 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August extends this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.56. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.32. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 77.56. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28.

In other crude oil trading news.....

Venezuela wants OPEC to set an oil price band of $80 to $120 a barrel to stem crude's recent tumble, seeking to revive a policy the cartel scrapped seven years ago.

France is considering a one off tax on the oil sector before the end of 2012 that would raise around 500 million euros ($623.55 million), helping depleted French coffers but hurting its struggling refining industry.

Brazil's state led oil company Petrobras said on Wednesday that May output rose 1.9 percent to an average of 2.60 million barrels a day of oil and natural gas equivalent (boepd) as offshore fields in Brazil restarted after maintenance shutdowns.

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CME Recap Energy Market Report For Tuesday June 26th

Check out our latest Video, Market Analysis and Forecast for the Dollar, Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, and the SP500

August crude oil prices registered an inside day trading range that was slightly higher on the session. The market spent most of the session within a tight trading range, despite fractional improvement in outside market sentiment.

Early support for the market came from gains in Brent crude oil and from expectations that US weekly crude stocks drew down last week. Prices took a negative turn in the wake of US economic data that showed Consumer Confidence falling by more than expected in June.

Some traders pointed to gains in Brent crude oil and concerns over a workers' strike in Norway that could tighten up near term supply as a force providing a late morning turnaround. As a result, the price differential between Brent and WTI crude oil increased by nearly $2.00 on the session.

Expectations for this week's EIA crude oil report are for a draw in the range of 750,000 to 1.0 million barrels.

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Is this technical support for oil or a lift on tensions in Syria?

20 Survival Skills for the Crude Oil Trader

CME: August crude oil prices took a slightly higher track during the initial morning hours, helped by a modest lift in outside market sentiment and expectations that week's EIA inventory report will show a draw. August Brent crude oil broke out to a new three day high during the initial morning hours, supported by a modest level of short covering, as well as expectations that US crude oil inventories drew down last week. The crude oil market also appears to be getting a modest lift from rising tensions in Syria. Meanwhile, the supply situation looks more than ample given soft economic data that continues to weigh on demand prospects and as Saudi Arabia continues their active production pace.

COT: August crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. If August extends this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.31 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.31. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.32. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 77.56. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28.

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Crude Oil Opens Lower as Debby Loses Focus

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CME: August crude oil prices grinded higher during the Sunday evening trade but reversed course throughout the initial morning hours. It seemed that ongoing concerns over weakening global growth and European debt issues weighed on oil demand prospects. Fears over weakening demand took some of the focus away from Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico, which shuttered nearly 25% of oil and gas operations in the region. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of June 19th showed non commercial traders were net long 192,059 contracts, a decrease of 8,943. Non commercial and nonreportable traders combined held a net long position of 198,111 contracts, for a decrease of 15,830 in their net long positioning.

COT: August crude oil was lower overnight as it extends this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. If August extends this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.89 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.89. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.32. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 77.56. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28.

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CME: Crude Oil Steady Ahead of EIA Inventory Report

Crude oil prices have been steady over the last twenty four hours after a short covering rally driven by a recovery in the euro and equity markets in Europe and the US after Monday's post Spanish bailout sell off. We are now entering the major event period for the month of June with the OPEC meeting kicking off tomorrow and the Greek elections on Sunday. Also since yesterday the EIA, IEA and OPEC have all released their oil forecasts while today the EIA will release its weekly oil inventory report. Last night the API data showed a surprise build in crude oil and decline in gasoline stocks (see below for more details on all of the fundamental reports.

I am still expecting a rollover with no production cuts from the OPEC meeting. I am still of the view that the Saudi's will keep oil production high even if oil prices continue to decline. I believe part of the strategy is to add pressure on Iran with lower oil prices and thus hope that it motivates Iran and the West to eventually negotiate a deal over Iran's nuclear issues. The next Iran/West meeting is in Moscow early next week.

At the moment most risk asset markets are still in a downtrend even after a short covering rally yesterday. The technicals for all of the markets are also suggesting lower values going forward. However, event risk will take over as the main price driver for all of the risk asset markets including the oil complex as the macro correlations remain very tightly linked. I believe there is a lot of trading and investing dollars sitting on the sidelines which is likely to remain parked in bonds and money markets until more clarity emerges from the major market headwinds. Following are just some of the main questions clouding all of the markets

Who will win the Greek elections?

Will the Spanish bank bailout actually go forward?

Is Italy next on the agenda?

Will the EU move to eurobonds?

Will contagion spread around to other EU countries as well as outside the EU?

Will the EU slip back into recession?

Will the US economy continue to slow?

Will China's easing result in a growth spurt for this meteoric economy?

Will the US Fed announce another quantitative easing program at their June meeting?

What will be the outcome of the OPEC meeting...production cut or status quo?

Will any progress be made at the next round of talks between Iran and the West?

If no progress is made does it quickly increase the likelihood of military action in the region?

There are more but I trust you all get the point as to the magnitude of the event risk to all of the markets over the next two to three weeks. All of the above have implications for the market and are likely to impact the direction of the markets...at least for the short term. In addition to all of the normal technical and fundamentals approaches you use for trading and investing for the next two to three weeks you must pay close attention to not only the outcome of all of the events but the 30 second news snippets hitting the media airwaves leading up to all of the events. The only guarantee is markets will remain volatile with sudden price reversals as we saw during Monday's US trading session.....

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CME Releases 2012 Product Expiration Calendar

If you are serious about trading energy stocks and products you need to post this in or on your calendar. One of the main reasons for failure for all newcomers to the commodity trading world is lack of understanding expiration dates.

Here you will find key trading information, including last trade and notice days as well as Exchange holidays, in the annual Energy Expiration Calendar published by CME Group.

CME Group offers the most extensive and liquid energy complex in the world, including Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI), Natural Gas (Henry Hub), petroleum, and electricity products. Many of our contracts are benchmarks that set the price for these resources worldwide. From the world's largest industrial companies to financial institutions, our diverse universe of participants clear an average daily volume of 1.5 million energy contracts every day on CME Globex, through CME ClearPort or on our trading floor.

Here is the 2012 CME Energy Product Expiration Calendar

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How to Trade This Headline Driven Stock Market

With all eyes on the unemployment report and Europe, the CME Group’s PR Department nearly created an all out panic with their announcement after the market close on Friday relating to futures maintenance margin. The original statement was vague and I was quite concerned until I checked out the CME Group’s web page and the PR Department sent an update clarifying their position. At this point I think the crisis has been averted, but this is just another reminder that we live in “interesting times.”

Keep in mind that if the CME starts raising margin rates across the board for futures contracts in order to protect themselves stocks and commodities could collapse. Silver recently has is margin rates increased and silver since then dropped 25% in value. So imagine if they raised the rates for more commodities…

The current price action in the marketplace pales in comparison to the world’s geopolitical tensions and deteriorating social mood. 

In my trading career, I have never seen the price action in the indices react so violently to intraday headlines and rumors. Risk is high and the types of traders profiting from this market are day traders and very short term traders with trades lasting just a couple hours to 24 hours in length. Aggressive trading which small position sizes is all that can be done right now. This is not meant to be investment advice, but more as a function of the market environment in which we find ourselves currently trading within.

Right now it is hard to say where price action in the broader indices heads in the short run.  One headline out of Greece or Italy could dramatically alter economic history. In the intermediate term I remain neutral to bearish for a number of reasons. One indicator I follow is the bullish percent index on the S&P 500 which at this point is arguing for lower prices.

The chart below illustrates the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index:

As can be seen above, the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index is presently at an overbought status. When looking at the relative strength and full stochastics indicators one would argue that a pullback is warranted. Historically when the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index is this overbought, a pullback ensues which ultimately sees the S&P 500 Index selloff. The more arduous task is trying to determine just how deep the pullback on the S&P 500 Index might be.

It is critical to point out that while I do believe a pullback is likely, I will not rule out a rally into the holiday season. Much of the near term price action is going to be dictated by headlines coming out of Greece and the rest of Europe. In addition to Greece, Italy is also starting to see increased concern regarding an unsustainable fiscal condition. Depending on how the European Union handles the varying degrees of risk in the near term, we could see price action react violently in either direction.

With the market capable of moving in either direction, I wanted to point out some key price levels which should act as clues regarding potential future price action in the S&P 500. The two key support levels to monitor on the S&P 500 Index are the 1,240 and 1,220 price levels.

The daily chart of the S&P 500 Index below illustrates the price levels:

For bullish traders and investors the key price level to monitor is the recent highs on the S&P 500 around the 1,290 area. The weekly chart below demonstrates why this price level is critical and which overhead levels will offer additional resistance should the recent highs be taken out to the upside.

SP500 Weekly Chart Analysis:

While I am neutral in the intermediate to longer term presently, in the short run I have to lean slightly bearish simply because of the future headline risk and also because a major head and shoulders pattern has been carved out on the hourly chart of the S&P 500 Index. This type of chart pattern is synonymous with bearish price action.

The hourly chart of the S&P 500 Index is shown below:

Right now I remain slightly bearish, but should the head and shoulders pattern fail and/or we begin to see multiple positive reactions to news coming out of Europe a strong rally into the holiday season is likely. Unfortunately all we can do is monitor the key price levels and wait patiently for Mr. Market to tip his hand.

Until we see a breakout in either direction, we could see price action inhabit the 1,220 – 1,290 price range for several weeks before we get any more clarity of future direction. Until I see a breakout, I will remain relatively neutral with a slight short term bias to the downside based on price patterns in the shorter term time frames. This is a tough market to trade in, and I don’t want to get chopped around or do any heavy lifting. I’m going to focus my attention on high probability, low risk trade setups until directional biased trades make more sense.

In closing, I will leave you with the thoughtful muse of the late Texas Congresswoman Barbara Jordan,

“For all of its uncertainty, we cannot flee the future.”

Market Analysis and Thoughts By:

Chris Vermeulen – ETF Trading Videos & Trade Alerts

JW Jones – Options Trading videos & Options Alerts

CME: Rollover Dates For Equity Index Products

The following provides some important information about the Rollover dates for the suite of Equity Index Products listed and traded at CME Group exchanges.


• The Rollover date is generally defined as eight calendar days before a contract expires for most our equity index futures. This date differs slightly for Nikkei 225 contracts, as the rollover date has historically been the Monday before expiration.

• From the Rollover date on, it is customary to identify the second nearest expiration month as the “lead month” for the index futures, as the nearest expiring contract will terminate soon and will have a less liquid market than the new “lead month” contract.

• For certain contracts traded in open outcry and then traded electronically on CME Globex during the overnight (ETH) sessions, the rollover date will dictate which contract is listed for trading on Globex.

Note: The following contracts have only one contract listed at a time for trading during the overnight CME Globex session (these contracts are not available on CME Globex during the RTH session):

ƒ S&P 500
ƒ NASDAQ-100
ƒ S&P MidCap 400
ƒ S&P SmallCap 600 futures.

Therefore, the rollover date will determine what contract month is listed for trading during the CME Globex session.

For example, if the rollover date is Thursday, June 9, 2011, for the S&P 500 futures contract, the CME Globex session beginning that evening (at 3:30 p.m. Chicago time /CT) will list the Sep 2011 contract for trading and the Jun 2011 contract would no longer be available to trade on CME Globex.

On the trading floor, the Sep 2011 contract will become the lead month beginning at 8:30 a.m. on Thursday, June 9, 2011.

Upcoming Rollover Dates, Quarterly Equity Index Futures Contracts

June 2011 Rollover Dates

• Nikkei 225 futures: Rollover Monday, June 6, 2011 - Expire Friday, June 10, 2011

• All other equity index futures contracts: Rollover Thursday, June 9, 2011 - Expire Friday, June 17, 2011

• Reminder: As previously announced in CME Group Special Executive Report S-5662 from March 16, 2011, CME will delist the E-mini MSCI Emerging Markets futures and E-mini MSCI EAFE Index futures on June 19, 2011, for trade date Monday, June 20, 2011. For more information, please visit www.cmegroup.com/equities.

Sept. 2011 Rollover Dates

• Nikkei 225 futures: Rollover Tuesday, September  6, 2011 Expire Friday, September 9, 2011

• All other equity index futures contracts: Rollover Thursday, September 8, 2011 Expire Friday, September 16, 2011

Questions?
Phone     1-800-331-3332
Email       equities@cmegroup.com

Traders Always Let Us Know Where They Stand Before a Long Weekend...And it Doesn't Look Good!

The crude oil bears have a renewed advantage as bad news in employment numbers as well as a fresh round of "goal post moving" from Washington creates global investment anxiety. Falling the most it has in two weeks.

Crude oil closed lower on Friday due to the bad news and profit taking as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Make sure you know when the world is trading as this is a holiday weekend. Check out our post Labor Day CME Hours so you won't get tripped up.

The oil companies themselves will not be taking a holiday weekend as Tropical Storm Lee has producers working around the clock to secure platforms, rigs and personal in the Gulf of Mexico. If the storm lives up to predictions it could limit product flow out of the gulf to 50% of normal production. And oil prices still fell today?

Stochastics and the RSI remain overbought and closes above the reaction high crossing at 89.19 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If October renews this summer's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 71.72 is the next downside target.

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 89.90. Second resistance is the May-July downtrend line crossing near 93.88. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.51. Second support is August's low crossing at 76.15.

Labor Day CME Hours

The CME stock indexes close at 10:30 a.m. CST on Monday, September 5, 2010. If you intend on daytrading please make sure you are flat before this close as the market does not open up again until Tuesday night at 5 p.m. CST!

Here is a link for the upcoming CME holiday hours

Be very careful and aware of early closes. Every holiday we talk to experienced traders that get stuck in trades because they did not pay close enough attention to the CME holiday hours. And again, if you are using daytrade margins please make sure you are flat at the early close time.

CME Boss On Oil Speculation

CME chairman Terry Duffy talks to Fox Business about oil speculation and what effect government involvement could have on the commodities market.



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NYMEX Trading and Processing Schedule

Monday February 16, 2008 (President's Day)

* NYMEX and COMEX trading floors will be closed.
* The DME intraday settlement price (OSP) to be published at the normal
time of 3:30 AM for February 16 calendar date. No post-close
settlement to be published.
* NYMEX and COMEX products on CME Globex and NYMEX ClearPort (including
DME Direct) will open for trading/trade submission for the February 19
trade date until the trading halt at 5:15 PM.
* Day/session orders entered on CME Globex or DME Direct will be for the
February 17 trade date and will continue until Tuesday's close at
5:15 PM.
* NYMEX trading at settlement (TAS) products on CME Globex will be
available for trading for the February 17 trade date.
* NYMEX TMS will be available for trade management for February 19 trade
date.
* NYMEX cleared trades API will be available.
* Markets will not be settled and settlements will not be published, as
February 16 is not a trade or processing date.
* NYMEX intraday files will not be produced, no clearing will occur, and
no clearing functionality will be available.
* Daily SPAN and erosion files will not be produced (an additional
erosion file will be produced on February 17).
* Options cannot be exercised.
* There will not be any allocation of energy and metal deliveries or
delivery notices, and related forms will not be accepted.
* The first normal intraday file generated on calendar date February 17
will contain trades from calendar date February 16.
* NYMEX and COMEX products on CME Globex and NYMEX ClearPort (including
DME Direct) all reopen for trading/trade submission at 6:00 PM
(February 19 Trade Date).


Tuesday February 17, 2008

* Normal schedule resumes.
* Banking for February 15th clearing cycle will occur.
* Large trader reporting for NYMEX and COMEX for February 15th trade date
for any clearing members not holding DME positions are due by 8:00 AM.
* "Double Erosion" will occur to account for the February 18 Peak Day.
Two erosion files will be produced.