The New Normal for Crude Oil?

By Marin Katusa, Chief Energy Investment Strategist

You may have come across the word “contango” in an oil related news report or article recently and wondered, “What’s contango?”

It isn’t the Chinese version of the tango.

Contango is a condition in a commodity market where the futures price for the commodity is higher than the current spot price. Essentially, the future price of oil is higher than what oil is worth today.

The above forward curve on oil is what contango looks like. There’s more value placed on a barrel of oil tomorrow and in the future than over a barrel today because of the increased value of storage.

I personally believe our resource portfolios are in portfolio contango—but that’s an entirely separate discussion that I’ll get to later. In today’s missive, I want to focus entirely on oil contango.

Crude oil under $50 per barrel may seem to put most of the producers out of business, but many oil and gas exploring and producing (E&P) companies are sheltered from falling prices in the form of hedges.

Often, companies will lock in a price for their future production in form of a futures commodity contract. This provides the company with price stability, as it’s sure to realize the price it locked in at some future date when it must deliver its oil.

But the market will always figure out a way to make money—and here’s one opportunity: the current oil contango leads to plenty of demand for storage of that extra oil production.

With US shale being one of the main culprits of excess crude oil production, storage of crude in US markets have risen above seasonally adjusted highs in the last year. This abundance of stored crude has pushed the current spot price of crude oil toward five year lows, as current demand is just not there to take on more crude production.

When in contango, a guaranteed result is an increase in demand for cheap storage of the commodity, in order to clip the profit between the higher commodity price in the future versus what’s being paid for the commodity at present. This is precisely what’ playing out in oil today.

Contago, Five Years Later

Looking back at the similarities of the 2009 dramatic free fall in oil prices to $35 per barrel, after a five year hiatus, crude has returned to a similar price point, and the futures market has returned to contango (green shows oil in contango).

Floating Storage Is Back in Vogue

Oil traders are now taking advantage of the contango curve through floating storage in the form of waterborne oil tankers.

This is what a big oil tanker looks like:

I’m personally reminded of contango whenever I look out my living room window:

Here’s a photo taken out my living room window—and this is non-busy part of the harbor. At times when I do my runs along the seawall, there have been up to 30 large oil tankers just sitting in the harbor. (On a side note, Olivier and I went for a run in July along the Vancouver seawall, and we counted 26 oil tankers.) All that pricey Vancouver waterfront will have an incredible view of even more oil tankers in the years to come when the pipelines are eventually built. I can only imagine what the major import harbors of China and the US look like… never mind the number of oil tankers sitting in the export nations’ harbors and the Strait of Hormuz. Multiply the above by at least 50 red circles.

As the spread between future delivery of oil and the spot price widened, traders looking to profit from the spread would purchase crude at spot prices and store it on oil tanker ships out at sea. The difference between the spread and the cost to store the crude per barrel is referred to as the arbitrage profit taken by traders. Scale is a very important factor in crude storage at sea: therefore, traders used very large crude carriers (VLCC) and Suezmax ships that hold between 1-2 million barrels of crude oil.

In the late summer of 2014, rates charged for crude tankers began to climb to yearly highs because of the lower price that spurred hoarding of crude oil. This encouraged VLCCs to lock in one year time charter rates close to and above their breakeven costs to operate the ship.

Time charter rates share similarities to the oil futures market, as ships are able to lock in a daily rate for the use of their ships over a fairly long period of time. VLCC spot rates have reached around $51,000 per day; however, these rates tend to be booked for a shorter period of around three months. These higher spot rates tend to reflect the higher cost paid to crew a VLCC currently against locking in crew and operating costs over a longer-term charter that could last a year. Crude oil is often stored on floating VLCCs for periods of six months to a year depending, on the contango spread.

Floating Storage: Economics

Many VLCCs are locking in yearlong time charter rates at or above $30,000-$33,000 per day, as that tends to be the breakeven rate to operate the vessel. If we assume that a VLCCs charge their breakeven charter rate and we include insurance, fuel, and financing costs that would be paid by the charterer, storage on most VLCCs in the 1-2 million barrel ranges are barely economic at best.

However, they’ll soon become profitable across the board once the oil futures and spot price spread widens above $6-$7 per barrel.

The red star depicts the current spread between the six-month futures contract from the futures price in February 2015. Currently companies are losing just under $0.20 per barrel storing crude for delivery in six months. However, once that $6-$7 hurdle spread is achieved, most VLCCs carrying 2 million barrels of crude will be economic to take advantage of the arbitrage in the contango futures curve.

The VLCC and ULCC Market

VLCC= Very Large Crude Carrier
ULCC=Ultra-Large Crude Carrier

VLCCs store 1.25-2 million barrels of oil for each cargo. Globally, there are 634 VLCCs with around 1.2 billion barrels of storage capacity, or over one-third of the US’s total oil production. The VLCC market is fairly fractioned, and the largest fleet of VLCCs by a publicly traded company belongs to Frontline Ltd. with 25 VLCCs. The largest private company VLCC fleet belongs to Tankers International with 37 VLCCs. In early December, Frontline and Tankers International created a joint venture to control around 10% of the VLCC market. Other smaller VLCC fleets belong to DHT with 16 VLCCS, and Navios Maritime with 8 VLCCs.

The lowest time charter breakeven costs of $24,000 per day are associated with the largest VLCC fleet from Frontline Ltd. and Tankers International. This is followed by the smaller fleets that have time charter breakeven costs of around $29,000 per day. Of course, on average the breakeven costs associated with most VLCCs is around $30,000 per day, and current time charter rates are around $33,000.

Investing in companies with VLCC fleets as the contango trade develops can generate great potential for further profits for investors. The focus of these investments would be between the publicly traded companies DHT Holdings, Frontline Ltd., and Navios Maritime.

But one must consider that investing in these companies can be very volatile because of the forward curve’s ability to quickly change. It isn’t for the faint of heart.

However, if current oil prices stay low, there will be an increase in tanker storage and thus a sustained increase in the spot price of VLCCs. However, eventually low prices cure low prices, and the market goes from contango to backwardation. It always does and always will.

Shipping companies have been burdened by unprofitable spot and charter pricing since the financial crisis, and these rates have only recently started to increase.

Warning!

As I sit here on a Saturday morning writing this missive, I want to remind all investors now betting on this play that they’re actually speculating, not investing.

There’s a lot of risk for one to think playing the tankers is a sure bet. I have a pretty large network of professional traders and resource investors, and I do not want to see the retail crowd get caught on the wrong side of the contango situation.

In the past, spot rates for the VLCCs usually decline into February and have dropped to as low as under $20,000 per day. It is entirely possible that if the day rates of VLCCs go back to 2012-2013 levels, operators will lose money.

Conclusion: this speculation on tankers is entirely dependent on the spot price and the forward curve.
The risk of this short term trade is that these companies are heavily levered, and some are just hanging on by a thread. Although this seasonal boost to spot rates has been a positive for VLCCs and other crude carriers, the levered nature of these companies could spell financial disaster or bankruptcy if spot rates return to 2012-2013 levels.

What should be stressed are the similarities to the short-lived gas rally in the winter of 2013-‘14, and the effect these prices have had on North American natural gas companies. A specific event similar to the polar vortex has occurred in the oil market, which has spurred a seasonal increase in the spot price tankers charge to move and store oil.

However, much like the North American natural gas market, the VLCC market is oversupplied; a temporary increase in spot prices that have led to increased transport and storage of oil will not be enough to lift these carriers from choppy waters ahead. Future VLCC supplies are expected to rise, with 20 net VLCCs being built and delivered in 2015 and 33 in 2016. This is much more than the 17 net VLCCs added in 2013 and 9 in 2014.

Another looming and very possible threat to these companies is the same debt threat that affected energy debt markets as global oil prices plummeted. If VLCC and other crude carriers experience a fall in spot prices, these companies’ junk debt could be downgraded to some of the lowest debt grades that border a default rating. This will increase financing costs and in turn increase the operating breakeven costs to operate these crude carrying vessels. The supply factor, high debt, and potentially short-lived seasonally high spot market could all affect the long-term appreciation of these VLCC stock prices. Investing in these companies is very risky over the long run, but a possible trade exists if storage and transport of oil continues to increase for these crude carriers.

Portfolio Contango—An Opportunity Not Seen in Decades

If you talk to resource industry titans—the ones who’ve made hundreds of millions of dollars and been in the sector for 40 years—they’re now saying that they’ve never seen the resource share prices this bad. Brokerage firms focused on the resource sector have not just laid off most of their staffs, but many have shut their doors.

The young talent is the first group to be laid off, and there’s a serious crisis developing in the sector, as many of the smart young guns have left the sector to claim their fortunes in other sectors.
There’s blood in the streets in the resource sector.

Now if you believe that, as I do, to be successful in the resource sector one must be a contrarian to be rich, now is the time to act.

I have invested more money in the junior resource sector in the last six months than I have in the last five years. I believe we’re in contango for resource stocks, meaning that the future price of the best juniors will be worth much more than they are currently.

I have my rules in speculating, and you’ll learn from my experience—and more important, my network of the smartest and most successful resource mentors whom I have shadowed for many years.

So how can we profit from the blood in these markets? Easy.

Take on my “Katusa Challenge.” You’ll get access to every Casey Energy Report newsletter I’ve written in the last decade, and my current recommendations with specific price and timing guidance. There’s no risk to you: if you don’t like the Casey Energy Report or don’t make any money over your first three months, just cancel within that time for a full, prompt refund, no questions asked. Even if you miss the three month cutoff, cancel anytime for a prorated refund on the unused part of your subscription.

As a subscriber, you’ll receive instant access to our current issue, which details how to protect yourself from falling oil prices, plus our current top recommendations in the oil patch. Do your portfolio a favor and have me on your side to increase your chances of success. I can’t make the trade for you, but I can help you help yourself.

I’m making big bets—are you ready to step up and join me?

The article The New Normal for Oil? was originally published at caseyresearch.com

Get our latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!

Growing Oil and Natural Gas Production Continues to Reshape the U.S. Energy Economy

The Annual Energy Outlook 2014 reference case was released today by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) presents updated projections for U.S. energy markets through 2040.

"EIA's updated Reference case shows that advanced technologies for crude oil and natural gas production are continuing to increase domestic supply and reshape the U.S. energy economy as well as expand the potential for U.S. natural gas exports," said EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski. "Growing domestic hydrocarbon production is also reducing our net dependence on imported oil and benefiting the U.S. economy as natural-gas-intensive industries boost their output," said Mr. Sieminski.

Some key findings:

Domestic production of oil and natural gas continues to grow. Domestic crude oil production increases sharply in the AEO2014 Reference case, with annual growth averaging 0.8 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d) through 2016, when domestic production comes close to the historical high of 9.6 MMbbl/d achieved in 1970 (Figure 1). While domestic crude oil production is projected to level off and then slowly decline after 2020 in the Reference case, natural gas production grows steadily, with a 56% increase between 2012 and 2040, when production reaches 37.6 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). The full AEO2014 report, to be released this spring, will also consider alternative resource and technology scenarios, some with significantly higher long-term oil production than the Reference case.

Low natural gas prices boost natural gas-intensive industries. Industrial shipments grow at a 3.0% annual rate over the first 10 years of the projection and then slow to a 1.6% annual growth over the balance of the projection. Bulk chemicals and metals-based durables account for much of the increased growth in industrial shipments. Industrial shipments of bulk chemicals, which benefit from an increased supply of natural gas liquids, grow by 3.4% per year from 2012 to 2025, although the competitive advantage in bulk chemicals diminishes in the long term. Industrial natural gas consumption is projected to grow by 22% between 2012 and 2025.

Higher natural gas production also supports increased exports of both pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG). In addition to increases in domestic consumption in the industrial and electric power sectors, U.S. exports of natural gas also increase in the AEO2014 Reference case (Figure 2). U.S. exports of LNG increase to 3.5 Tcf before 2030 and remain at that level through 2040. Pipeline exports of U.S. natural gas to Mexico grow by 6% per year, from 0.6 Tcf in 2012 to 3.1 Tcf in 2040, and pipeline exports to Canada grow by 1.2% per year, from 1.0 Tcf in 2012 to 1.4 Tcf in 2040. Over the same period, U.S. pipeline imports from Canada fall by 30%, from 3.0 Tcf in 2012 to 2.1 Tcf in 2040, as more U.S. demand is met by domestic production.

Car and light trucks energy use declines sharply, reflecting slow growth in travel and accelerated vehicle efficiency improvements. AEO2014 includes a new, detailed demographic profile of driving behavior by age and gender as well as new lower population growth rates based on updated Census projections. As a result, annual increases in vehicles miles traveled (VMT) in light-duty vehicles (LDV) average 0.9% from 2012 to 2040, compared to 1.2% per year over the same period in AEO2013. The rising fuel economy of LDVs more than offsets the modest growth in VMT, resulting in a 25% decline in LDV energy consumption decline between 2012 and 2040 in the AEO2014 Reference case.

Natural gas overtakes coal to provide the largest share of U.S. electric power generation. Projected low prices for natural gas make it a very attractive fuel for new generating capacity. In some areas, natural-gas-fired generation replaces power formerly supplied by coal and nuclear plants. In 2040, natural gas accounts for 35% of total electricity generation, while coal accounts for 32% (Figure 3). Generation from renewable fuels, unlike coal and nuclear power, is higher in the AEO2014 Reference case than in AEO2013. Electric power generation from renewables is bolstered by legislation enacted at the beginning of 2013 extending tax credits for generation from wind and other renewable technologies.

Other AEO2014 Reference case highlights:

• The Brent crude oil spot price declines from $112 per barrel (bbl) (in 2012 dollars) in 2012 to $92/bbl in 2017. After 2017, the Brent spot oil price increases, reaching $141/bbl in 2040 due to growing demand that requires the development of more costly resources. World liquids consumption grows from 89 MMbbl/d in 2012 to 117 MMbbl/d in 2040, driven by growing demand in China, India, Brazil, and other developing economies.

• Total U.S. primary energy consumption grows by just 12% between 2012 and 2040. The fossil fuel share of total primary energy demand falls from 82% of total U.S. energy consumption in 2012 to 80% in 2040 as consumption of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls, largely as a result of slower growth in LDV VMT and increased vehicle efficiency.

• Energy use per 2005 dollar of gross domestic product (GDP) declines by 43% from 2012 to 2040 in AEO2014 as a result of continued growth in services as a share of the overall economy, rising energy prices, and existing policies that promote energy efficiency. Energy use per capita declines by 8% from 2012 through 2040 as a result of improving energy efficiency and changes in the way energy is used in the U.S. economy.

• With domestic crude oil production rising to 9.5 MMbbl/d in 2016, the net import share of U.S. petroleum and other liquids supply will fall to about 25%. With a decline in domestic crude oil production after 2019 in the AEO2014 Reference case, the import share of total petroleum and other liquids supply will grow to 32% in 2040, still lower than the 2040 level of 37% in the AEO2013 Reference case.

• Total U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions remain below their 2005 level (6 billion metric tons) through 2040, when they reach 5.6 billion metric tons. CO2 emissions per 2005 dollar of GDP decline more rapidly than energy use per dollar, to 56% below their 2005 level in 2040, as lower-carbon fuels account for a growing share of total energy use.

Get our "Gold and Crude Oil Trade Ideas"

Platts: ICE Brent futures lose previous quarter's premium to NYMEX WTI, Dubai

After a strong performance at the beginning of the year, the forward Brent complex lost some of its strength to WTI and Dubai crude futures in the second quarter of 2013 on a combination of European demand woes and stronger East and West crudes.

The narrowing of the spread between the ICE Brent futures and NYMEX light sweet contract, known as Brent/WTI spread, was a notable change in the quarter.

Toward the end of June, the ICE Brent front-month futures contract narrowed its premium to front-month NYMEX crude to below $6/barrel, more than halving from the beginning of the quarter. (A trend which of course has continued, with the spread tumbling below $5/b and even $4/b in just the first three days of July.)


Here's a short video in which John Carter shows how he trades oil and how he identifies targets when to take profit.

Brent Crude Oil Trades $115...Where are commodities headed on Tuesday?

CNBC's Bertha Coombs discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets and looks at where oil and precious metals are likely headed tomorrow.

Test drive our video analysis and trade idea service for only $1.00

CME Recap Energy Market Report For Tuesday June 26th

Check out our latest Video, Market Analysis and Forecast for the Dollar, Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, and the SP500

August crude oil prices registered an inside day trading range that was slightly higher on the session. The market spent most of the session within a tight trading range, despite fractional improvement in outside market sentiment.

Early support for the market came from gains in Brent crude oil and from expectations that US weekly crude stocks drew down last week. Prices took a negative turn in the wake of US economic data that showed Consumer Confidence falling by more than expected in June.

Some traders pointed to gains in Brent crude oil and concerns over a workers' strike in Norway that could tighten up near term supply as a force providing a late morning turnaround. As a result, the price differential between Brent and WTI crude oil increased by nearly $2.00 on the session.

Expectations for this week's EIA crude oil report are for a draw in the range of 750,000 to 1.0 million barrels.

Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!

Drop in U.S. Gasoline Prices Reflects Decline in Crude Oil Costs

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

Since reaching a recent peak of $3.94 per gallon on April 2, the average retail price U.S. drivers paid for gasoline has fallen for 12 weeks in a row to $3.44 per gallon, according to EIA's weekly motor fuel survey. The drop in gasoline prices largely reflects the decline in crude oil prices (see chart below), which have historically comprised the biggest part of the pump price.

The national average price for regular unleaded gasoline fell 50 cents per gallon over the 12-week period, while the spot prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil declined the equivalent of 63 cents per gallon and Brent crude oil fell the equivalent of 81 cents per gallon. WTI and Brent are among the world's leading oil pricing benchmarks.



If crude oil price changes are fully passed through to consumers, for every $1 per barrel change in crude oil prices, consumers could expect to see a 2.4-cent-per-gallon change in retail gasoline prices. However, EIA analysis indicates that generally about 50% of the crude oil price change is usually passed on to consumers at the pump within two weeks, and 80% is generally passed on within four weeks. Gasoline prices are also sensitive to conditions affecting particular regional markets, such as significant refinery outages on the West Coast this spring that led to higher prices in that area.

The price of crude oil accounts for about two thirds of the retail price of gasoline. Refining costs, distribution and marketing costs, and state and federal taxes make up the rest of the retail gasoline price. Pump prices vary by region, with some drivers paying more or less for gasoline than the national average depending on where they live (see chart below).



Concerns that a weak global economy will lead to reduced petroleum demand has contributed to lower crude oil prices. However, part of the reason retail gasoline prices have not dropped as much as crude oil prices is that U.S. gasoline demand has started to show some growth in recent months. During the first quarter of 2012, monthly EIA data shows U.S. gasoline demand was down about 1.4% from the first quarter of last year. However, since the gasoline price peak, weekly EIA data indicate that gasoline demand has started to strengthen, with demand down only 0.9% in April compared to a year earlier and up by 0.2% in May.

The current 12 week drop in gasoline costs is the second longest period of declining pump prices recorded by EIA's weekly fuel price survey since the drop at the end of 2008, when pump prices fell for 15 straight weeks.

Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!

Is this technical support for oil or a lift on tensions in Syria?

20 Survival Skills for the Crude Oil Trader

CME: August crude oil prices took a slightly higher track during the initial morning hours, helped by a modest lift in outside market sentiment and expectations that week's EIA inventory report will show a draw. August Brent crude oil broke out to a new three day high during the initial morning hours, supported by a modest level of short covering, as well as expectations that US crude oil inventories drew down last week. The crude oil market also appears to be getting a modest lift from rising tensions in Syria. Meanwhile, the supply situation looks more than ample given soft economic data that continues to weigh on demand prospects and as Saudi Arabia continues their active production pace.

COT: August crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. If August extends this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.31 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.31. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.32. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 77.56. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 73.28.

Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!

CME: Simplest Way to Describe Oil Market....Uncertainty

Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!

The simplest way to describe the oil markets as well as the broader risk asset markets is in one word "uncertainty". Uncertainty is coming from many different directions all at the same time. June is the month of events and thus the month of above normal uncertainty. In the last five trading sessions oil prices have reversed direction each day demonstrating the lack of conviction by the majority of market participants. Each 30 second news snippet hitting the media airwaves sends the market in different directions as traders and investors try to sort out what is the next issue to emerge from the growing risk pyramid.

Today the first of the many June events will become clearer as OPEC decides what their forward production levels will be. There has been a group of OPEC members or the hawks...Iran & Venezuela in particular who are calling for a cut in production to bolster prices after about a $25/bbl decline over the last month or so. On the other hand the doves led by Saudi Arabia are looking to actually increase the official production ceiling and were showing no signs of agreeing to a cut ahead of the official meeting. History has told us that the position the Saudi's take heading into the meeting is generally the outcome of the meeting. All signs suggest history will repeat itself today and there will be no cuts in production with the official ceiling staying the same of raised marginally. I am expecting a rollover of the existing agreement.

This seems to be the outcome that the consensus of market participants has been expecting for the last several weeks and if the expectations are met I do not expect any major move in oil prices after the meeting communiqué is issued solely based on the outcome of the OPEC meeting. Oil prices are likely to remain in the $80 to $90/bbl range basis WTI and $95 to $105/bbl trading range basis Brent until the next round of events hit staring on Sunday. The outcome of the OPEC meeting...especially one that is likely to be a status quo meeting is certainly not the most important issue facing all of the risk markets in the short term and certainly not the main price driver for oil or the major risk asset markets.....Read the entire report.

Get 4 FREE Trading Videos from INO TV!

Another Oil Price Shock, Another Global Recession?

Brent crude ended trading above $120 a barrel on Friday, April 13, while WTI crude on NYMEX for May delivery settled at $102.83 a barrel.  Oil has traded above $100 for all but a couple of days in the past year (see chart below).  This persistent high oil price has many concerned to start threatening a nascent recovery of the global economy.

Studies show that historically, around 90% of US recessions post World War II were preceded by oil price shocks.  The most recent occurrence took place when oil more than doubled in price from January 2007 to July 2008 due to a sharp increase in Chinese demand.  The pullback of US consumer and corporate spending already put a drag on economic growth before the subprime induced financial crisis closed the deal on the Great Recession.

Analysts generally see the $120-130 level as a price that would prompt consumer and corporate to cut back on spending sharply, and hurt the recovery and growth of key economic sectors. A recent Reuters survey of 20 equity strategists put $125 a barrel as the point economy and stock markets could start to suffer.

The most recent study on the link between oil price and economic recession came from energy industry consultancy Wood Mackenzie (WoodMac) published earlier this month.  The chart below from WoodMac illustrates "the mechanism" of how an oil price shock would derail the global economy. 

According to WoodMac's model,

".... the US will fall into recession within 12 months if WTI increases to $130 per barrel and the price remains elevated. If WTI reaches $150 per barrel and remains elevated, recession will be more pronounced with US GDP estimated to contract 0.4% in 2013."

U.S. domestic petroleum products are priced off of Brent since WTI has become a less relevant oil price marker due to the inventory glut at pipeline capacity challenged Cushing, OK depressing the WTI price.  So using the current spread between WTI and Brent of around $15-$20, WTI $130 would suggest Brent at about $150 range.  Brent futures already hit $128.40 a barrel, the highest since 2008, in early March, but has since given back some of the gains.. 

However, the difference between now and 2008 is that when oil spiked to almost $150 in 2008, there was a strong demand from China and a real shortage of supply, whereas the current world oil market is a lot more balanced than the current Brent oil price suggests.

IEA (International Energy Agency) said in its monthly report that there had potentially been a rise in global oil stocks of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) over the last quarter, and the impact on prices had not yet been fully realised.  Reuters quoted the IEA that:

"Easing first quarter 2012 fundamentals have seen prices recently lose most of the $5 per barrel they gained in March. The muted impact so far is partly because much of this extra supply has been stockpiled on land or at sea."

Rather than reflecting market fundamentals, dollar prices for Brent crude, up more than 15% this year, has been pushed up mainly by fears about Iran, and the loss of supply from three relatively small oil producing countries--Syria, Yemen and South Sudan--adding to the supply worries.  In other words, the oil price is bid up primarily by trading actions on the geopolitical factors (chiefly Iran). 

Meanwhile, Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al Naimi said on Friday, April 13 in a statement during a visit to Seoul that

“We are seeing a prolonged period of high oil prices. We are not happy about it. (The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia) is determined to see a lower price and is working towards that goal.” 

“Fundamentally the market remains balanced — there is no lack of supply.  Saudi Arabia has invested a great deal to sustain its capacity, and it will use spare production capacity to supply the oil market with any additional required volumes.”

Naimi earlier this year indicated $100 a barrel as an ideal price for producers and consumers earlier this year.

Chart Source: Reuters.com

Typically, oil price shock occurs when price goes out of the normal range.  Currently, oil is not trading at an unprecedented level as in the case of 2008, which is hard to hit given the projection of a subdued global GDP, weak oil demand outlook, and an eventual resolution of the Iran situation.

Thus we believe oil has gotten way ahead of itself, and could experience a correction later this year and in the next three years or so.  End user behavior change is starting to manifest, and the latest CFTC trading position reports already showed that money managers cut their net-long position roughly 12% in light, sweet crude-oil futures and options (see chart above).  (Brent already went down to $118.57 on Monday, April 16.)

So no, unless something totally unexpected shocks the oil price into no man's land, WTI and Brent are unlikely to hit the levels that could possibly bring about a global recession any time soon.  In fact, among the major possible drivers of a global recession, European economic and debt crisis looks to be the greater risk than an oil price shock. 


Posted courtesy of AsiaBlue at Econmatters

Refinery Utilization Rates React to Economics in 2011

The divergence of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil prices in 2011 affected refinery utilization in the United States, particularly in the East Coast (PADD 1) and Midwest (PADD 2) regions. Historically, refineries in these districts operated at 80-90% of their capacity. Changes in refining economics last year contributed to real contrasts in refinery utilization in some of the PADDs (see Overview chart).

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Refinery Utilization and Capacity.

 Some key findings by PADD include:

• PADD 1. East Coast refining typically relies on imports of crude oil based on the Brent crude price, which, on average, increased to a $16-per-barrel premium over WTI spot prices in 2011. As a result, two East Coast refineries idled capacity due to poor economics, while another is considering selling or shutting down. PADD 1 utilization averaged only 68% of operable capacity in 2011, which includes the idle capacity of closed refineries. This utilization rate reflects both the drop in East Coast refining capacity and lower crude oil inputs.
• PADD 2. Midwest refineries benefitted from supplies of less expensive crude oil coming from Canada and increased production in the Bakken formation. Thus, PADD 2 refineries averaged about 91% utilization in 2011, even with increased refining capacity. As a result, PADD 2 average crude oil inputs of nearly 3.4 million barrels per day were at the highest level since 2000.
• PADD 3. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) continued capacity expansions as refineries upgraded infrastructure to maximize yields. Growing oil production in Texas and the Midwest contributed to increased inputs. The Gulf Coast refineries were able to use different types of crude oil to maximize production. Refineries in this region used cheaper sources of crude compared to the rest of the country.
• PADDs 4 and 5. Refinery closures, outages, and a lack of access to less expensive crude oil reduced inputs in 2011 to refineries in PADDs 4 and 5 and helped drive down utilization rates.

 

WTI and Brent Price Spread Narrows

Between October and November, the spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil increased $23 per barrel partly on signs that transportation constraints out of the U.S. Midwest, the main market for WTI, are beginning to ease. At the same time, the price of European benchmark Brent crude oil was up much less, only about $7 per barrel. As a result, the WTI-Brent crude oil price difference has narrowed. The WTI-Brent crude oil price difference was smaller earlier in the year. While the WTI-Brent oil price narrowed, gasoline prices continue to track the price of Brent as they have for much of the year. The average price for gasoline moved about 6 cents a gallon from early October through mid November and then fell 13 cents during the last two weeks of November.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on Bloomberg.  

Gold’s 4th Wave Consolidation Nears Completion and Breakout

Phil Flynn: Can Turkeys Lay Eggs?

Well can turkeys lay eggs? We know that can't fly. Can they? Well even if they can't, there is plenty of egg laying going on whether you are focusing on the purchasing manger data in China and Europe and perhaps what may be a bit more disturbing is the subpar German bund auction.

China PMI readings fell to 48 from 51 in October, the biggest month over month drop in over 32, hitting the lowest level since march of 2009. Germany's 10 year auction was not well received to say the least with 35% of the bunds unsold. Still the yield in Germany at 1.98%. is much better than say a country like Spain which currently is around 7%, yet Germany is supposed to be the strong economy in Europe. The lack of interest in this auction shows that the market believes it will be up to Germany to take on the debt of its less than, shall we say, industrious neighbors. Or is it because German Chancellor Angela Merkel challenged the effectiveness of the common European bond.

Add to that a subpar reading on Eurozone manufacturing that surprisingly contracted coming it at a less than expected at 47.9, below a forecast of 50.1. But the country’s flash services PMI was up at 51.4 against an expected 46.6. What was more disturbing was that industrial new orders showed the largest decline since records began in 2005, coming in at a -6.4 and was only expected to fall -2.4.

After data like that it is no wonder that the US is calling for more stress tests on our banks to head off what might be a crisis in the Euro Zone that may be already impacting China and may threaten the economic data in the US that, as of late, has been over whelming positive. With all of this uncernatainty is it any wonder why OPEC is trying to hang onto their existing production quotas despite the fact that if Europe rolls over and China slows, there might be a slowdown in demand. Oh sure, in the short term despite the slowdown in manufacturing China demand will remain solid as the country is trying desperately to keep ahead of distillate demand ahead of winter. Yet perhaps the flattening of the crude curve may be signaling tougher demand times ahead.

OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem el-Badri told said, "Prices are comfortable" for both producers and consumers. What consumers he talked to I am not sure. They are probably not in China or Europe. Ali Naimi, the Oil Minister of Saudi Arabia, said he is "very happy" with oil prices. If Ali is happy then OPEC is happy. Don't you feel better?

Dow Jones says that in the first half of 2012, demand for OPEC crude is expected to fall by more than 1.3 million barrels a day, compared with the fourth quarter of 2011, to an average of 29.29 million barrels day, according to the group's latest report. That is lower than OPEC's current production of about 30 million barrels a day.

Now all of this bad economic news and uncertainty, while bearish, might have been wildly bearish if it were not for the worries surrounding Iran and Egypt. Sanctions and increased pressure on Iran, as well as the uncertainty surrounding Egypt, is raising the geopolitical risk premium. So instead of oil prices crashing we may see the market try to stabilize or rebound. That may be even more true because of the impending turkey day holiday as traders give thanks that they are not Europe. Besides, with the geo-political risk, being short over an extended holiday with global supply risk possibilities does not go well with cranberries or pumpkin pie. We should see some short covering before the end of the day.

Products have been getting support because of the renewed interest in Brent as well as strong global demand for distillate and a rebounding appetite for gas ahead of the holiday. Today we get both the Energy Information Agency petroleum stocks as well as the natural gas storage. The American Petroleum Institute reported that crude oil inventories tanked by a stunning 5.57 million barrels. Yet what we lost in crude we gained in gas, rising by 5.42 million barrels. That increase is the bonus from strong distillate production that led to a drop of 886,000 barrels.

Get a trial to Phil's daily trade levels by emailing him at pflynn@pfgbest.com

How to Trade Using Market Sentiment & the Holiday Season

EIA: Recent Gasoline and Diesel Prices Track Brent and LLS, not WTI

Since the beginning of 2011, the spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, a traditional benchmark for the U.S. market, has trailed the spot price of other crude oils, including Brent, a global benchmark, and Louisiana Light Sweet (LLS), a Gulf Coast crude oil similar to crudes run by many U.S. refiners. Because few U.S. refiners have easy access to WTI crude oil, this price divergence has not directly translated to lower prices for U.S. refined petroleum products, such as gasoline and heating oil.

Instead, these product prices have more closely tracked the prices of Brent and LLS. Through October 25, the prices of Brent and LLS are up 20% and 18% in 2011, respectively; the prices of wholesale diesel fuel and gasoline on the U.S. Gulf coast are up 21% and 13%, respectively; meanwhile, the price of WTI is up just 2%.

Might be a good time to check out Secrets of the 52 Week High Rule

Phil Flynn: Meeting Madness

Meeting or no meeting West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil continued to fly and the spread between the Brent crude continued to come in. The upward momentum in WTI was slowed a bit when European finance ministers sent chills down trader's spines. With the Euro Zone in termoil it is another reason why the WTI/ Brent spread has come in recent days.

The other reasons are as follows:
The market is pricing in the faster than expected return of Libyan crude. We continue to get reports from Libya that the damage to some of the major oil and gas fields are not that bad and the market expects production to ramp up quickly. The price of Brent was pricing in some worst case scenarios for the return of Libyan crude.

The other reason is that we have seen the spread come in is because of the continued decline in stocks of crude in Cushing, Oklahoma since the beginning of this conflict. In April Cushing stocks were at 41.9 million barrels in the beginning of the conflict and are now close to 31.1 million. That was ok when we thought the US was sinking into recession but now the US will have to see a higher price for WTI if we are going to be competitive for imports.

The other reason is that the Fed is laying the groundwork for QE3D! That will support oil as it has the gold and the silver markets.

The market will focus on Europe today but also the weekly supply reports from the Energy Information Agency. The API reported crude oil stocks up 2.7 million barrels. Gasoline up 153,000. Distillates down 1.8 million barrels. Stay tuned.

Phil Flynn

Sign up for a free trial to Phil's daily trade levels. email Phil Flynn at pflynn@pfgbest.com


Here is a preview of our MarketClub Trade Triangle Chart Analysis and Smart Scan technology

Phil Flynn: Seven Days

It's now 7 days to fiscal sanity, or is it the alternative? It is do or die with an October 23rd deadline. A deal to save Europe which has to be done in seven days and France and Germany have to do the heavy lifting.

The G20 told the EU that they have one week to come up with a "comprehensive plan" that includes the details on how much of a haircut Greek bondholders will have to take and a plan to recapitalize all of the debt ridden European banks. It seems that all are agreed and Europe will be saved yet again.

Yet not so fast. Perhaps that 7 day deadline is not as hard and fast as the markets at first believed. Dow Jones said that German Finance Minister Schauble said the upcoming EU summit will not present an ultimate solution for the crisis. What?

The bottom line is that oil is living and dying with the twists and turns in this European nightmare. If Europe fails to come up with a viable plan then the word sinks back into crisis mode and the demand for oil will plummet.

Iranian revelations are also disturbing. Fears that perhaps this could escalate to some type of military conflict could keep some upward pressure on the Brent WTI spread.



You can get a free trial of Phils daily trade levels. Just email him at pflynn@pfgbest.com.