Crude Oils Have Different Quality Characteristics

Many types of crude oil are produced around the world. The market value of an individual crude stream reflects its quality characteristics. Two of the most important quality characteristics are density and sulfur content. Density ranges from light to heavy, while sulfur content is characterized as sweet or sour. The crude oils represented in the chart are a selection of some of the crude oils marketed in various parts of the world. There are some crude oils both below and above the API gravity range shown in the chart.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on Energy Intelligence Group—International Crude Oil Market Han

Crude oils that are light (higher degrees of API gravity, or lower density) and sweet (low sulfur content) are usually priced higher than heavy, sour crude oils. This is partly because gasoline and diesel fuel, which typically sell at a significant premium to residual fuel oil and other "bottom of the barrel" products, can usually be more easily and cheaply produced using light, sweet crude oil.

The light sweet grades are desirable because they can be processed with far less sophisticated and energy intensive processes/refineries. The figure shows select crude types from around the world with their corresponding sulfur content and density characteristics.

The selected crude oils in the figure are not intended to be comprehensive of global crude production. Rather, they were grades selected for the recurrent and recently updated EIA report, "The Availability and Price of Petroleum and Petroleum Products Produced in Countries Other Than Iran."

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 

Notes: Locations on the map are based on the pricing point, not necessarily the area of production. Locations are approximate. Points on the map are labeled by country and benchmark name. United States-Mars is an offshore drilling site in the Gulf of Mexico. WTI = West Texas Intermediate; LLS = Louisiana Light Sweet; FSU = Former Soviet Union; UAE = United Arab Emirates

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Rising Production in the Permian Basin

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The Permian Basin, a long time oil and natural gas producing region in west Texas and eastern New Mexico, is showing signs of new life. The active rig count has grown from 100 rigs in mid 2009 to over 500 rigs in May 2012. According to data from the Texas Railroad Commission and the New Mexico Energy, Minerals and Natural Resources Department, oil production from the Permian has increased fairly steadily over the past few years, reaching the 1 million barrels per day (bbl/d) threshold in late 2011, the first time since 1998.

Sources: U.S Energy Information Administration, based on Baker Hughes, Railroad Commission of Texas, and New Mexic

Growing oil production in the Permian Basin and other Texas plays, most notably the Eagle Ford shale, may be starting to strain existing takeaway capacity and is creating a need for Texas oil to serve more distant refineries. While new pipeline projects are scheduled to come online, current transportation constraints have caused Permian crude oil, which is priced in Midland, Texas, to sell at a significant discount to WTI beginning in January 2012.

Drop in U.S. Gasoline Prices Reflects Decline in Crude Oil Costs

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Since reaching a recent peak of $3.94 per gallon on April 2, the average retail price U.S. drivers paid for gasoline has fallen for 12 weeks in a row to $3.44 per gallon, according to EIA's weekly motor fuel survey. The drop in gasoline prices largely reflects the decline in crude oil prices (see chart below), which have historically comprised the biggest part of the pump price.

The national average price for regular unleaded gasoline fell 50 cents per gallon over the 12-week period, while the spot prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil declined the equivalent of 63 cents per gallon and Brent crude oil fell the equivalent of 81 cents per gallon. WTI and Brent are among the world's leading oil pricing benchmarks.



If crude oil price changes are fully passed through to consumers, for every $1 per barrel change in crude oil prices, consumers could expect to see a 2.4-cent-per-gallon change in retail gasoline prices. However, EIA analysis indicates that generally about 50% of the crude oil price change is usually passed on to consumers at the pump within two weeks, and 80% is generally passed on within four weeks. Gasoline prices are also sensitive to conditions affecting particular regional markets, such as significant refinery outages on the West Coast this spring that led to higher prices in that area.

The price of crude oil accounts for about two thirds of the retail price of gasoline. Refining costs, distribution and marketing costs, and state and federal taxes make up the rest of the retail gasoline price. Pump prices vary by region, with some drivers paying more or less for gasoline than the national average depending on where they live (see chart below).



Concerns that a weak global economy will lead to reduced petroleum demand has contributed to lower crude oil prices. However, part of the reason retail gasoline prices have not dropped as much as crude oil prices is that U.S. gasoline demand has started to show some growth in recent months. During the first quarter of 2012, monthly EIA data shows U.S. gasoline demand was down about 1.4% from the first quarter of last year. However, since the gasoline price peak, weekly EIA data indicate that gasoline demand has started to strengthen, with demand down only 0.9% in April compared to a year earlier and up by 0.2% in May.

The current 12 week drop in gasoline costs is the second longest period of declining pump prices recorded by EIA's weekly fuel price survey since the drop at the end of 2008, when pump prices fell for 15 straight weeks.

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North American Spot Crude Oil Benchmarks Likely Diverging Due to Bottlenecks

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West Texas Intermediate at Cushing, Oklahoma (WTI Cushing), a light, sweet crude grade, is North America's most closely observed crude oil price benchmark and the underlying commodity of the NYMEX crude futures contract. Until 2008, all North American crude grades broadly tracked fluctuations in WTI Cushing prices and were clustered within about $8 per barrel of the WTI Cushing price. Pricing differences between crude grades were largely explained by the different quality characteristics of the crude oil in each location and transportation costs to Cushing, the delivery point of the NYMEX contract.

Since 2008, however, the price differences between WTI Cushing and other North American crude oil benchmarks have increased sharply (see chart below). In addition to WTI, other crude grades have emerged as alternative benchmarks. In particular, the Argus Sour Crude Price Index (ASCI), a weighted average of prices for several offshore Gulf of Mexico sour crude grades, has become the benchmark or reference used for assessing the price of several imported grades sold on a long-term contract basis, including Saudi Arabian and Kuwaiti crude grades.



Transportation constraints in the wake of rising production from inland fields in Canada, North Dakota, and Texas are one of the main drivers of the growing price discrepancy between crude grades since 2008. Limited pipeline capacity has made it difficult to bring crude oil out of the center of the continent, lowering all the affected benchmarks compared to prices outside the area. But within the constrained area, prices have also diverged from each other, reflecting local transmission bottlenecks within the larger constrained area. For example, crude oil benchmarks for the Bakken, Western Canada, and West Texas Sour (Midland, Texas) have traded at a discount to WTI Cushing. Rising production in the Bakken and West Texas have exacerbated these price differences. Outside the constrained areas, benchmarks like Louisiana Light Sweet, Alaska North Slope, and Mars Blend in the Gulf of Mexico reflect premiums to WTI Cushing, sometimes significant.

The phrase "transportation constraints" refers to a broad range of logistic issues, with inadequate pipeline capacity being the most common issue. However, EIA is not aware of any crude oil production capacity being shut in because of a lack of capacity to move the oil. In the short term, production surges and/or pipeline shutdowns force oil producers to compete with each other for more expensive transport options: rail and then truck. In the longer term, additional transportation capacity (rail and pipeline) is likely to be built, which should lower the cost of transporting the oil to markets.

Some North American crude oil benchmark locations are identified in the map below.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 

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Working Crude Oil Storage Capacity at Cushing, Oklahoma Rises

As of March 31, 2012 working crude oil storage capacity at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage and trading hub was 61.9 million barrels, an increase of 6.9 million barrels (13%) from September 30, 2011 and 13.9 million barrels (29%) from a year earlier, as reported in EIA's recently released report on Working and Net Available Shell Storage Capacity.

Utilization of working storage capacity on March 31, 2012 was 64%, an increase from the 53% observed in September 2011, but lower than the 86% observed on March 31, 2011. The report also noted that operating shell storage capacity increased 8.1 million barrels (12%) from September 30, 2011 to reach 74.6 million barrels.

Both storage capacity and the level of inventories held at Cushing are closely watched market indicators, as Cushing is the market hub for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil that is the basis for crude oil futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange. High inventory levels at Cushing have been a symptom of transportation constraints that have resulted in WTI trading at a discount relative to comparable grades of crude oil since early 2011.

Growing volumes of U.S. crude oil production, along with a higher level of imports from Canada, have helped contributed to the record levels of inventories at Cushing. Increased flows of crude oil from these two sources, along with expectations for future increases, have consequently created the need for additional storage at the hub.

Weekly data show that as of June 1, 2012, crude oil inventories held at Cushing were 47.8 million barrels, the highest level on record and very close to total working storage capacity as of March 2011. However, due to the growth in storage capacity between March 2011 and March 2012, the utilization rate for working storage capacity at Cushing has actually declined over the past 14 months.

OPEC Spare Capacity in the First Quarter of 2012 at Lowest Level Since 2008

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The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that global spare crude oil production capacity averaged about 2.4 million barrels per day (bbl/d) during the first quarter of 2012, down about 1.3 million bbl/d from the same period in 2011 (see chart below). The world's spare crude oil production capacity is held by member countries of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Spare capacity can serve as a buffer against oil market disruptions, and it gives OPEC additional political and economic influence in world markets. There is little or no spare capacity outside of the OPEC member countries.



Spare crude oil production capacity is now less than 3% of total world crude oil consumption—the lowest proportion since the fourth quarter of 2008—based on EIA estimates.

Spare crude oil production capacity is an important indicator of producers' ability to respond to potential disruptions; consequently, low spare oil production capacity tends to be associated with high oil prices and high oil price volatility. Similarly, rising spare capacity tends to be associated with falling oil prices and reduced volatility. However, spare capacity must also be considered in the context of a number of other market factors that can drive crude oil prices, such as global supply, demand, and inventory levels.

EIA defines spare crude oil production capacity as potential oil production that could be brought online within 30 days and sustained for at least 90 days, consistent with sound business practices. This does not include oil production increases that could not be sustained without degrading the future production capacity of a field.


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Williston Basin Crude Oil Production and Takeaway Capacity are Increasing

Crude oil production from the Williston Basin (primarily the Bakken formation) recently increased to more than 600 thousand barrels per day (bbl/d), according to Bentek Energy, LLC (Bentek), testing the ability of the transportation system, oil pipelines, truck deliveries, and rail to move crude oil out of the area (see chart below). The current price gap between Bakken crude oil and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) shows the effects of this constraint. Bentek projects more transportation capacity coming online in 2012, potentially alleviating this constraint.




 Due to pipeline capacity constraints, Williston Basin producers rely on rail and trucks to move additional crude oil out of the region. Because of these transportation constraints, Bakken crude oil currently sells at a discount of $7.50 per barrel to WTI. This discount was as much as $28 per barrel in February 2012 and is expected to continue as long as transportation constraints persist.

Currently, North Dakota has only one refinery, which processes about 58 thousand bbl/d of crude oil. Crude oil is delivered to other markets using a combination of pipeline, rail, and truck. Delivery capability as of April 2012 was: 450 thousand bbl/d by oil pipeline; 150 thousand bbl/d by rail; and small volumes by truck. However, in 2012, incremental additions to rail and oil pipeline capacity for the Williston Basin could total 350 thousand bbl/d.

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EIA: U.S. Imports of Nigerian Crude Oil Have Continued to Decline in 2012

The trend of declining crude oil imports into the United States continued in the first month of 2012. There has been a particularly sharp decline in imports from Nigeria due to the idling in late 2011 of two refineries on the East Coast, which were significant buyers of Nigerian crude, and reduced imports by refiners on the Gulf Coast. Prior to the idling of the refineries, Nigeria typically accounted for about 10% of the crude oil imported into the United States; in January, that share dropped to about 5%.



 In January 2012, imports from Nigeria totaled just 449 thousand barrels per day (bbl/d), a 54% (519 thousand bbl/d) decrease from January 2011, marking the lowest monthly import total from the country since 2002. One third of this decline was the result of two idled Philadelphia area refineries. ConocoPhillips' Trainer refinery (idled in September 2011) and Sunoco's Marcus Hook refinery (idled in December 2011) imported a combined 173 thousand bbl/d of Nigerian crude in January 2011. Most of the remaining decrease in Nigerian imports was the result of several Gulf Coast refiners reducing Nigerian imports in favor of domestically produced crude.

The idled refineries were suited to run light-sweet crude oils, and Nigerian crude oils tended to match well with that requirement. However, because of their quality, Nigerian crude oils are often expensive compared to heavier or more sour crude oils used by many of the Gulf Coast refineries.

 Additionally, Nigerian crudes are currently expensive compared to some of the inland domestic light sweet crudes of similar quality such as West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Bakken, and Eagle Ford. Given the growing production from the Bakken and Eagle Ford formations and associated transportation constraints, these inland crudes have been selling at a discount to waterborne crudes on the Gulf Coast, providing refiners in that area further incentive to switch from imported crude to inland, domestically produced crude when available.

Preliminary weekly data indicate the trend of decreasing Nigerian imports continued in February and March with March imports averaging just 301 thousand bbl/d, which, if confirmed in the monthly data, would represent a 64% decrease compared to March 2011.

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Refinery Utilization Rates React to Economics in 2011

The divergence of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil prices in 2011 affected refinery utilization in the United States, particularly in the East Coast (PADD 1) and Midwest (PADD 2) regions. Historically, refineries in these districts operated at 80-90% of their capacity. Changes in refining economics last year contributed to real contrasts in refinery utilization in some of the PADDs (see Overview chart).

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Refinery Utilization and Capacity.

 Some key findings by PADD include:

• PADD 1. East Coast refining typically relies on imports of crude oil based on the Brent crude price, which, on average, increased to a $16-per-barrel premium over WTI spot prices in 2011. As a result, two East Coast refineries idled capacity due to poor economics, while another is considering selling or shutting down. PADD 1 utilization averaged only 68% of operable capacity in 2011, which includes the idle capacity of closed refineries. This utilization rate reflects both the drop in East Coast refining capacity and lower crude oil inputs.
• PADD 2. Midwest refineries benefitted from supplies of less expensive crude oil coming from Canada and increased production in the Bakken formation. Thus, PADD 2 refineries averaged about 91% utilization in 2011, even with increased refining capacity. As a result, PADD 2 average crude oil inputs of nearly 3.4 million barrels per day were at the highest level since 2000.
• PADD 3. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) continued capacity expansions as refineries upgraded infrastructure to maximize yields. Growing oil production in Texas and the Midwest contributed to increased inputs. The Gulf Coast refineries were able to use different types of crude oil to maximize production. Refineries in this region used cheaper sources of crude compared to the rest of the country.
• PADDs 4 and 5. Refinery closures, outages, and a lack of access to less expensive crude oil reduced inputs in 2011 to refineries in PADDs 4 and 5 and helped drive down utilization rates.