Here We Go - Get Ready for the Breakout Pattern Setup

We are writing this post today with a few forward-looking expectations while attempting to warn traders that some extended rotation is likely to enter the markets over the next 30+ days. If you’ve been following our research, you’ll know that we’ve been calling these move months in advance of other researchers and analysts. Our September 17, 2018 research post highlighting our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive modeling system suggested the U.S. stock markets were poised for a massive price rotation followed by a very unique price setup that we are experiencing now.

Currently, the YM (Dow Futures Contracts) are leading the pack on a dramatic upside breakout move. This is likely a result of the US government spending bill that is recently working its way towards approval and the fact that this new spending bill clears the way for at least 8+ months of uninterrupted market optimism (or at least we hope). This 300+ point upside move clearly breaks price highs and puts the U.S. stock market, at least the Dow/Blue-Chips, back into “new high trending mode”. As many of you are likely aware, our Fibonacci price study teaches us that price must ALWAYS seek to establish new price highs or new price lows AT ALL TIMES. Thus, these new price highs are a very strong indication that the upside trend is dominant and should continue for a while.

Additionally, we want to highlight what we believe will be a similar price pattern to 2015/2016 in the U.S. markets – a multiple Price Wedge formation that could ultimately set up another price leg (which we believe will be higher, to the upside, at this time).

In the next article “PART II” pay close attention to the charts and images as we are attempting to clearly illustrate how and why price rotation is about to hit the US markets and why you need to be prepared for this move.

We continue to read that large amounts of capital are sitting on the sidelines or have been pulled from the markets over the past 12+ months. We understand this as the rotation in early 2018 frightened many investors and the continued sideways price action, global market concerns and geopolitical issues have caused international investors to want to protect their investments from risk – thus they move their capital into cash. We get it. But we also believe the next breakout in the U.S. markets will be a great opportunity for skilled traders to identify and prepare for an incredible profit potential no matter which way the market breaks up or down because technical analysis allows us to closely follow the direction of the market.

The amount of capital that is sitting on OUTSIDE the markets, currently, represents a massive amount of resources that could re-enter the markets when traders/investors decide the timing is right. We’ve termed this a “Capital Shift”.

In simple terms, it reflects capital/cash moving from one market to another or from actively invested to cash, then back to actively invested. Our belief is that capital operates in a manner to always protect itself from risk while attempting to identify suitable returns. The best environment for capital is always a relatively safe investment with protective values and a high probability of decent returns. Therefore, this massive amount of capital not being deployed in the global markets will, at some time, re-enter the markets and will likely increase pricing valuations.

How and when will this capital re-enter the markets? What will price activity look like and how will we know when the timing is right for our own strategic deployment of our trading capital? Continue reading to learn why we believe we are only 30~45 days away from an incredible trading setup. You won’t want to miss this one.

Please take a minute to visit The Technical Traders to learn how we can help you find and execute better trade in 2019 and stay ahead of these market moves. We are confident that you will find our Daily Video, Detailed Market Research, Proprietary Research Tools and Detailed Trading Signals will help you make 2019 an incredibly successful year.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

How to Trade as We Near March Top in Equities

Our focus is to provide you with updated and accurate market price predictions for all of 2018, we believe we are entering a period that will be fantastic for traders and active investors. We believe this recent volatility has shaken out the low volatility expectations and will allow the markets to start moving in a more normal rotational mode going forward. This means we’ll have lots of trading opportunities to profit from.

For those of you who have not been following our research over the past 2 to 3 months, we urge you to visit our Technical Traders Ltd. website to read our published research and to learn how we’ve been calling these moves in the markets for our members. We called the early 2018 market rally weeks before it started. We called the lower price rotation over a month before it happened. We called the bottom in this price correction almost to the day and told our members that we believed a very quick Pennant price formation was set up that will drive prices higher which we have seen this week.

Members know price should move higher leading to a March 15 price cycle peak. After that point, we’ll refresh our analysis for our members and attempt to provide further guidance. Today/Friday we closed our Short position in UVXY for a quick 50% in 9 days.

In this post, we are going to focus on one of our price modeling systems based on Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling and show you why we believe this recent price move will likely stabilize within a range while attempting future moves. Let’s start with the INDU.

WEEKLY DOW JONES CHART

This first chart is the INDU Weekly chart with our Fibonacci Modeling system at work. We’ve highlighted certain areas with notes to help you understand it in more detail. This adaptive modeling system tracks price high and low points in various cycle lengths, then attempts to adapt a major and moderate cycle analysis model to key Fibonacci predictive points. The end result is that we can see where key Fibonacci price trigger levels are and also see what our predictive modeling system is telling us where prices is likely headed.

This weekly, chart shows us that the current support level (originating from near April 2017) is nearly exactly where the current price correction found support. This level is currently acting as a strong base for current price action and will likely continue to provide very strong support going forward. You can also see the Bearish Fibonacci Price Level near 25,776 that is acting like Resistance. Notice that this Bearish Fibonacci Price Level also coincides with the BLUE Fibonacci projected price level.

It is still our opinion that the US major markets will continue moderate price rotation within these levels for the next 5+ days before reaching an intermediate price low cycle near February 21. After this price low cycle is reached, we believe a new price advance will begin to drive the US majors higher reaching a peak near March 15.

DAILY DOW JONES CHART

This next INDU Daily chart provides more detail of our projected analysis. Again, please read the notes we’ve made on this chart to assist you in understanding how we are reading it and interpreting it. The most recent price peak and trough clearly show the volatility spike that happened last week. It also shows us that the recent trough in price aligned almost perfectly with a Bullish Fibonacci Price Level from November 2017. We interpret this as a clear “double bottom” formation at Fibonacci Support.

The purple horizontal line is the Support Level originating from the earlier, Weekly, chart for reference.

This Daily chart shows more detail in terms of the Fibonacci Projected Price Levels and also shows the wide range of price that we are currently experiencing. Over time, this wide range will likely diminish a bit as the trend continues to consolidate price rotation into more narrow bands, but right now we have a very wide range of price volatility that we have to deal with.

Additionally, the current upward price rotation is above the Bullish Fibonacci Price Level from the recent lows. This is a clear indication that prices want to continue to push higher till some new price peak is in place. We expect that will happen fairly soon.

Notice how the Fibonacci Projected Price Levels are quite a way away from the current price levels? This is because the recent increase in volatility is alerting the price modeling system that we expect larger range price rotation. As newer and more moderate price rotations form, these levels will begin to consolidate a bit with new price levels.

As of right now, our analysis has really not changed much since last week. We believe the Feb 21 price low will prompt a rally into the March 15 price peak. At that time, we’ll take a fresh look at these modeling systems to see what they can tell us about the future.

DAILY SP500 (SSO ETF) CHART

The last chart I wanted to share with you is the Daily SSO chart. This chart helps to firm up our analysis of what to expect in the immediate future as well as continues to support our analysis that the US Majors will likely stall near current levels and retrace slightly headed into the Feb 21 price low. Remember, we don’t believe this Feb 21 price low will be anywhere close to the recent lows. This move lower will be much more subdued and moderate in size and scope.

With this SSO chart, the Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is showing a potential “Major Bottom” near the recent lows. This happens when the system identifies a potentially massive or major price bottom. Over time, the modeling system will confirm this trigger or replace it with a new trigger when it forms.

We still see the massive price volatility in this chart. We still see the Fibonacci Price Trigger Levels that tell us we are below the Bearish Price Trigger (near the recent top) and above the Bullish Price Trigger (near the recent bottom), so what should expect price to do? At this point, the most recent Price Trigger Breach is the Bullish Price Trigger – thus we are expecting prices to continue higher overall. The new Bearish Fibonacci Price Trigger, below the current prices, is what we would watch for any signs of price weakness. When that level is breached, then we begin a new potential down leg.

Right now, we will issue this one simple warning – the upside move is likely to be ending soon and preparing for our February 21 price low point. The fact that prices are showing that they’ve already reached the Fibonacci Projected Price Level is telling us this upside leg may be over for now which is the reason we exited our short UVXY position here for a 50% profit.

Next, we expect the US majors to rotate lower for a few days headed into a February 21 price low. This will be following by an almost immediate and strong upside push to a March 15th price peak.

This means we will be setting up for some great trades over the next few days/weeks. Imagine being able to know that near February 20-22, we should be able to “pick” the best opportunities for quick trades where the US majors begin a new up leg? Also, imagine how critical this type of information can be to you going forward?

Our research team at The Technical Traders site has a combined 53 years of trading and analysis experience. We develop specialized and proprietary price modeling systems, like these, to assist us in being able to provide our members with an “edge” in the markets. Of course, we are not always 100% accurate with our predictions – no one can be 100% accurate. We simply do our best to make sure our members get the best we can offer them each and every day. We want them to understand the opportunities that are playing out and we help them find the best trade triggers for profits each week.

Stay tuned for our next post on Sunday with an instant trade setup, 

so be sure to join our free mailing list!

If you find this information valuable and would like to include it in your daily trading activities, visit here and sign up for the Technical Traders Wealth Building Newsletter today!

Chris Vermeulen

How Much Will a 15% Hair Cut Cost Your Investment Capital?

Over the past few weeks I have been watching the DOW and Transportation index closely because it looks and feels like the Dow Theory may play out this year and the stock market could take a 15% haircut.

But what if you skipped on the haircut and opted for a 40% refund?  What? Keep reading to find out how.

Keeping this post short and sweet, I think the U.S. stock market is setting up for a sharp selloff. And it will look a lot like the July 2011 correction. If my calculations are correct this will happen in the next 3-9 weeks and we will see a 15% drop from our current levels. Only time will tell, but I have a way to hedge against this with very little downside risk to you ETF portfolio.

The Dow Theory Live Example for ETF Portfolio

The daily chart of the SP500 index below shows our current trend analysis with green bars signaling an uptrend, orange being neutral, and red signaling bearish price action. Currently the bars are green and we can expect prices to have an upward bias.

The Dow Theory could be  in play. When both the Transports (IYT) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) cannot make higher highs and start making lower lows, according to the Dow Theory the broad stock market is topping.

We are watching the market closely because they have both made lower highs and lows.  This rally could stall in the next couple weeks and if so we expect a 15% correction.







Take a look at the 2011 Stock Market Crash



The chart above shows how fearful traders have a delayed reaction to moving money from stocks to a mix of risk-off assets.

The choppy market condition during August and September clearly helped in frustrating investors and created more uncertainty. This helped prices of this ETF portfolio fund rally long after the initial selloff took place. This is something I feel will take place again in the near future and subscribers of my ETF newsletter will benefit from this move.

Because we have a Dow Theory setup, our risk levels are clearly defined as to when to exit the trade if it does not play out in our favor. But with the potential to make 40% and the downside risk only being 4%, it’s the perfect setup for a large portion of our ETF portfolio. And just so you know this is not a precious metals trade as we are already long that sector and up 10% in that position already.

Get My Daily Video Forecasts & ETF Trades Today

Chris Vermeulen
The Gold & Oil Guy.com

Mish's Mid Week Market Minute $SPY $IWM $DIA $QQQ

Michelle "Mish" Schneider gives a quick run down of this market like no one else can. Here's her Free Market Minute for Wednesday....

Flat has several meanings. 1. Smooth and even, without marked lumps or indentations. I wonder how many can say that about their equity after Tuesday’s session? 2. Lacking interest or emotion; dull and lifeless. That’s a yes! 3. In or to a horizontal position. Describes the market internals or McClellan Oscillator.

The S&P 500 is flat. Flat as a word has several more urban definitions; but I will leave that to your own curiosity to look up online. Speaking of, Google (GOOG), far from flat, did make new highs.

Volume equally flat with an exception to the small caps, Russell 2000s, which posted a rather small distribution day. Remember, when you’re flat on your back, everything looks up!

S&P 500 (SPY) Held the fast moving average, which by the way, is flat.

Russell 2000 (IWM) Broke the fast moving average with 111 an important support level

Dow (DIA) Closed just shy of the fast moving average but also on support. Also have to mention that IWM SPY and DIA did not make new highs recently while QQQs did

Nasdaq (QQQ) Marginally worked off overbought conditions

XLF (Financials) Volcker rule announcement had an impact. Sitting on support

SMH (Semiconductors) Holding the runaway gap

XRT (Retail) With a 6 day correction, 85.60 is pretty much the risk should this start to turn up

IYT (Transportation) Marginally held 128.40

IBB (Biotechnology) Held 219 and still digesting

IYR (Real Estate) 63.20 is the place to hold now

XHB (Homebuilders) Floundering around above the 50 DMA

GLD Gapped up so that reversal candle was good after all-now, 122 great resistance

USO (US Oil Fund) Cleared the 200 DMA-and baby, it’s cold outside!

XLE (Energy) 2 inside days-good one to focus on for range break

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs doesn’t believe taper talk it seems

EWG (Germany) 30.33 is the low of the island top to clear to negate that pattern


Click here...To Get Michelle's Market Minute in your inbox every morning.


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But truthfully, it’s not your fault…

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Amazing when you really think about it, the only difference between now and then is the revealing way in which they've perfected the methodology for reduced risk, increased profitability, and more consistency.

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Why Investors Must Be Cautious At These Prices

Last week on October 8th the financial market experienced a broad based sell off. Every sector was down with utilities being the only exception.

The individual leadership stocks, which are typically small to mid-cap companies (IWM – Russell 2K) that have a strong history and outlook of earnings growth, were hit hard as well.

Whenever the broad market experiences a price correction, one of the most important factors I analyze is how well leading stocks hold up and show relative strength to the broad market.

So, where does this leave us going forward?

When stocks that have been leading the market higher and only pausing during market corrections in the S&P500, Dow, and NASDAQ, it’s a positive sign. This tells us investors and big money continues to flow into the risk on assets (stocks).

Conversely, when these leading stocks/sectors begin succumbing to the selling pressure of the broad market, it quickly grabs my attention and tells us it’s time to be aware that a major top may be forming.

It looks as though the broad market rally is just barely hanging on. If the leading stocks and sectors begin breaking below their 50 day moving averages, my proprietary SP500 Market Timing & Trading System will shift to sell mode and things could get ugly for those who do not know how to trade a bear market.

Here's our chart work including videos for "Why Investors Must Be Cautious At These Prices"



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Leading Sectors, Cycles and Momentum Point To Drop This Week

Chris Vermeulen's trade set up for the first week of July.....

As talked about almost two weeks ago when the SP500 trend reversed to the down side we have been waiting for a bounce in price to short the market (buy and inverse ETF). That happened last week and now we are waiting for the market to shake out the short positions and suck in as many traders to get long before the next wave of major selling takes place.

It seems traders are becoming bullish again as prices rise and they are dumping their precious metal positions and rotating into equities again from the looks of things. Also if you know the Dow Theory then you know the industrial and transportation sectors tend to lead the broad market. Well today the only two sectors trading lower are just those two.

See the charts for a visual

Adam Hewison: Don’t Underestimate Yesterday’s Market Action

Yesterday’s action in the equity markets is a grim reminder of just how fragile the economic and financial system is globally. We would not dismiss the market action as just another pullback in the market.

The sharp down move should not be ignored, in my opinion. We are looking at a key support level on the S&P 500 at $1220. A close below that level will accelerate the decline to the next key level of support, which is $1180. That move may have to wait until Friday as traders jockey for positions today. For the year, the S&P at the moment is down, the NASDAQ is flat, and the DOW is barely higher with gain of 3%.

The copper market gave a pretty strong negative signal yesterday, as it moved below the $3.50 level. The copper market is telling us that demand is just not there for this industrial metal. For some time now, we have been discussing the trials and tribulations of Europe and all the drama that has become a Greek tragedy. The fact that they have a new prime minister in Greece does not change one thing, in my opinion.

Italy is now the star of the show, and we are not convinced that Prime Minister Berlusconi is going to step down off his pedestal anytime soon. Politicians still have a “quick fix” mentality and are counting on that to solve this mega financial mess. The reality is, there is no quick fix. It is going to take years for this mess to be cleaned up, and in all likelihood it will get ugly.

The best thing a trader can do at the present time is to watch the market action, as it will tell you exactly what to do. We believe the rest of this week is going to be a very important one, particularly where we close tomorrow. If we have a negative close on Friday below $1220 on the S&P 500, we would then expect to see this index move lower for the balance of November.

Now let's take a look at our trend analysis for crude oil........

We suspect that the crude oil market, basis the December contract, will have problems between the $97 a barrel to $100 a barrel level. With a Chart Analysis Score of +70, this market may be trying to move out of its broad trading range and reach the $100 mark. The $100 level represents a 61.8% retracement of the entire down move starting from the highs seen earlier this year in April. Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines. Long term traders should continue to be short the crude oil market.


Get your favorite symbols' Trend Analysis TODAY!

J.W. Jones: The SP 500 and the Dollar Ahead of the Fed Meeting

The Federal Reserve is holding a two day meeting Tuesday and Wednesday of this week. Market participants are expecting the Federal Reserve to prop up financial markets yet again with some grand new plan. The fact is the Federal Reserve is running out of bullets.

Interest rates cannot move much lower in terms of the Federal Funds rate, additional quantitative easing seems redundant since Treasury yields are close to all time lows, and finally a twisting of maturities will do little to alter the current economic conditions. The Federal Reserve is just repeating practices which have proven over a long term do little to create jobs or get the economy moving in the right direction. A stock market rally does not help a person looking for a job!

It is possible that even if the Federal Reserve proposes additional stimulus the market could sell off. I have been trading less in this environment and have been focusing on looking for trade setups that could work regardless of price action. For now I am sitting predominantly in cash waiting to see how price action reacts to the news flow tomorrow.

S&P 500
If I had to guess, I continue to believe that the S&P 500 will get back to test the key 1,250 – 1,280 price level. While this resistance level is apparent, Mr. Market will be able to tear up traders if price jams into that resistance zone. Mr. Market loves nothing more than to shake people out of positions. If price works higher I would expect the 1,250 – 1,280 price range to offer just enough risk / reward to get investors and traders involved in a choppy trading environment. The key upside levels on the S&P 500 are shown below on the daily chart of the S&P 500 Index ($SPX):



The flip side of that argument would see the S&P 500 jamming into recent resistance around the 1,230 price level. If prices rolled over and momentum picked up, a test of the recent August lows would likely transpire and could produce a breakdown and a lower low.

When looking at recent price action, the S&P 500 Index has put in a series of higher lows which is a bullish signal, however the S&P 500 has a long road ahead to break out above the 2011 highs. If the S&P 500 carves out a lower high on the S&P 500 Index at 1,230, 1,250, or even 1,280 and subsequently takes out the August lows then the secular bear will be back. The weekly chart of the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) shown below illustrates key support levels:



For now I am just going to sit in cash and wait for Mr. Market to provide me with some better clues. The trading range is pretty wide going from around 1,100 to 1,280. What I will be watching for is a strong move supported with volume that pushes price out of this range. As of the close today, price action was trading around the middle of this range but depending on how price action reacts to the news that comes out Wednesday it is possible that in coming days we could see a breakout in either direction.

Dow Jones Industrial Average
It will likely surprise long time readers that I am actually going to comment on the Dow. I will keep this brief, but I wanted to point it out to readers as I have not heard much mention of this pattern in the main stream financial media.

Over the weekend I was looking at some longer term charts and I accidentally stumbled across this head and shoulders pattern on a weekly chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. I rarely pay much attention to the Dow as I monitor the S&P 500 closely. However, I could not ignore what I was seeing. I also noted that a similar pattern also exists on the S&P 500.

I am generally not the kind of trader who tries to predict where price action will arrive in the distant future. However, I am not going to ignore clear chart patterns that I recognize regardless of the time frame I am looking at.

For those not familiar with a head and shoulders pattern, it is a very ominous signal. Head and shoulders patterns are generally topping formations that if triggered result in violent selloffs. On this chart the pattern is obvious and if the pattern were triggered the forthcoming price action would be decisively negative for domestic equities. The long term monthly chart of the Dow is shown below:



If the pattern is triggered on an undercut of the March 2009 lows, the head and shoulders formation would produce selling pressure that would target the 3,800 – 4,000 level on the Dow. Yes, you read that right! I want readers to recognize that this pattern is not a given and it could play out over a long period of time. The pattern would suggest that a test of the 2009 lows is possible, but I will leave the likelihood of that test up to Mr. Market.

I view this pattern as a potential warning signal for long term equity positions. Consequently, it is far too early to jump into a plethora of short positions or sell every equity position owned simply because of this pattern. While I do not know where price goes from here or if this pattern will ever trigger, I think market participants should be aware of its existence.

It would take the perfect concatenation of events to push prices down to the March 2009 lows, but unfortunately the condition of social mood paired with all of the risks facing financial markets is notable. The recent selloff in August came on the heels of a head and shoulders pattern that was triggered. We all know how August played out, but this pattern on the Dow Jones Industrial Average has a long way to go before it can even trigger. Time will tell, but readers should at the very least put this chart pattern on your radar!

U.S. Dollar Index
The U.S. Dollar Index has ripped higher by more than 5% since August 29th. The strength in the Dollar has likely been precipitated by fear based on the European sovereign debt and banking crisis. While the Dollar certainly has long term flaws, it may simply be the best of the worst.

If the situation in Europe begins to break down further based on any number of events it could likely push the U.S. Dollar Index considerably higher. My trading partner Chris Vermeulen has been riding this strong impulse wave with his subscribers Swing trading the UUP etf and thinks there is big potential still if  Euro Land fears continue to rise.

The daily chart of the Dollar Index futures is shown below:



Mid-Week Market Trend Conclusion
Wednesday will be filled with a variety of news and headlines. The Greek government is meeting and a news release regarding the conference will likely come out around the time domestic markets in the United States open. The news has the potential to move markets considerably.


In addition, the Federal Reserve is set to end its September meeting and market participants will be sitting on the edge of their seats waiting to hear from the Federal Reserve about any stimulus the central bank may provide.


Overall, the news and headlines on Wednesday will certainly impact the current conditions of financial markets. Right now I am pleased to be sitting primarily in cash. I have a few positions open, but for the most part the trades are not directional and are profitable based on time decay.

The one directional trade I have on presently is a remaining sliver of a position I have already taken profits from and stops are in place. While I have been risk averse the past few trading sessions, I am flush with cash and ready to accept new risk if high probability setups emerge.

However, the best trade can sometimes be no trade at all and I intend to remain patient. Risk is extremely high!

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How to Gauge the Equities Market so You Don’t Buy to Early!

From Chris Vermeulen at The Gold and Oil Guy......

Over the years I have found an indicator/trading tool which I find help spot intermediate trend reversals. I am going to quickly cover in this report. As most of you know the 20 simple moving average is a great gauge for telling you if you should be looking to buy the dips or sell the bounces. It’s an indicator I keep on the broad market charts like the SP500, Dow and NASDAQ.

The chart below shows the percentage of stocks trading above the 20 moving average. When this indicator falls below 20%, I make sure I start to protect my short positions with more aggressive protective stops and keep an eye on short term sentiment, volume ratios, options and price action as a bottom can take place at any time and very quickly. Bottoms tend to be more of an event happening quickly with a washout/panic selling day followed by a sharp rally, while intermediate market tops drag out taking weeks if not months to roll over and are very difficult to trade which is what we have been experiencing so far this year.

Mr. Jones once of my trading buddies who focuses strictly on Options Trading has been cleaning up with the current volatility making 21%, 50% and 67% returns on his last threes trades. This guy loves volatility and always seems to have an options strategy for every situation the market dishes out. Check out his service at OptionsTradingSignals.com

As you can see this indicator is currently trading in the lower reversal zone and I feel a bottom will form before March is over.

SP500 Daily Chart
The SP500 continued lower today, which is what I mentioned, would most likely take place in my pre market video this morning. The trading session was a roller coaster with news on Japans reactors causing large waves of buy and selling throughout the day. I have not seen traders follow the news so close like this in some time… Everyone has their fingers hovering over the buy and sell button these days.

Looking at the bottom indicator which is my gauge of panic selling within the market, it has yet to close above 15 which is the minimum number I typically look for before I start zooming into the intraday charts for a long entry (market bottom). We still could see much lower prices before we see that.

Gold 4 Hour Chart
This chart is the same one I showed in my Sunday night report, which explained why gold should test the $1380-1390 level in the coming days. We did see that unfold this week but now the chart is pointing to possibly even lower prices with a support range between $1360-1380 taking place this week. Keep an eye on it as it should be swift if it does occur.

Mid-Week Trend Report:
In short, we are finally getting the correction everyone has been waiting for and now that it’s started and we are short, we must start watching closely for a bottom because they can take place very quickly.

My focus is still on playing the short side but I have my antennas up just in case signs of a bottom start showing up.

If you would like to get my free weekly reports just Click Here to visit The Gold and Oil Guy.Com


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New Video: How A Japanese Chart Formation Could DOOM the DOW

It's déjà vu all over again". Is one of Yogi Berra's famous original quotes and the same can be said for the DOW right now.

The weekly chart on the DOW is flashing the same Japanese candlestick signal that it had earlier in April of this year. Back then the DOW dropped from 11,200 to 9,700 in the space of just 10 weeks!

If nothing else watch this video as this could be one of the most important weeks for the DOW and its future. The video runs three minutes. You will find it both interesting and educational from both a Fibonacci and Japanese candlestick point of view.

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements needed. Please feel free to leave a comment and let us know what you think of the video and the future of the Dow and the markets in general.

Watch How A Japanese Chart Formation Could DOOM the DOW

Want to trade like Adam? Click here for FREE lessons.

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Did You Pull the Trigger on The Dow?

We have been concerned for some time that the market was in a rotational phase and that some key levels were being tested on the upside. The yesterday's action, Tuesday, can only be viewed one way, and that is negative. We do not expect this market to make a miraculous recovery to new highs and would not be surprised if we have seen the highs for the year.

In today's short video on the Dow, we look at potential downside targets that this market may be headed for. One of the key things to remember in trading, and this applies to all markets, is perception. This is why technical analysis plays such an important part in detecting shifts in market perceptions. Our "Trade Triangles" have done extraordinarily well in this environment.

Just click here to watch Did You Pull the Trigger on The Dow? and as always you can watch our videos without registration and there are no fees involved. Please take a minute to leave a comment and let us know if you pulled the trigger on the DOW.


Watch: The S&P 500 Went South....Did You Cash in Your Chips?


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Technical Analysis Video: The Line Is Drawn In the Sand In the Equity Markets?

To many technicians, it is very clear where the equity markets will reverse, and for those folks who don't follow the technicals, this is a key reversal area in the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and the Dow.

In our new short video we show you the exact levels that we think will reverse this market, if in fact it's ever going to reverse to the downside.

Currently the major trend remains positive for all the indices and we would only become negative on the these markets should the key levels we show you today, are broken.

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. We would really like to hear your thoughts on this video and the markets, so please feel free to leave a comment.


Technical Analysis Video: The Line Is Drawn In the Sand In the Equity Markets?




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New Video: Is This a Repeat performance....Dow in 2010 = Dow of 1929, a Video Analysis

There is never any shortage of chart comparisons between recent and current recessions and it's time we make our own in todays short video analysis.

Today we examine the crash of 1929 and the similarities to today’s Dow. This video is not meant to scare anyone, but to educate investors and traders of the possibilities that may exist in today’s market.

We could be, repeat, could be very close to a tipping point similar to that of 1930 when the Dow had ended a 50% correction to the upside. I invite you to watch my latest video and see what makes sense to you.

Just click here to watch the video and as always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. If you agree or disagree with this video please feel free to comment.

Do you know how to play this possible slide? Get Started Trading Now....With 10 FREE Trading Lessons

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New video: Are These Markets in Trouble?

The recent run up in the markets and the fact that the markets have exceeded some key Fibonacci retracement levels has lured many investors into believing that this will be a "V" shaped recovery this time around.

For months now we have voiced our concerns that all the major indexes are in the "thin air". This new short video explores that and looks at a key Japanese candlestick formation that could really make a difference and be the first clue in the demise of the Dow.

We also want to share with you a specific number to look for in February. Should this level be broken, then it will signal a major reversal to the downside for the Dow.

Just click here to watch the new video and as always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to sign up or register to watch them. Please take a minute to leave a comment and let us know what you think.


Check out the new "Trend TV"

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New Video: How Long Will The Dow Stay Bullish?

The Dow jumped to new highs for the year, extending its gains from the lows seen in March.

What does this mean for the future?

The Dow is now within 100 points of being into thin air as it has retraced close to 50% of its down move. The NASDAQ has already done this, and the S&P 500 has come very close to achieving this goal. Clearly the trend continues to be positive for the Dow with today’s new highs. The other two indices, while closing very well and on an upbeat note, must clear their previous highs to start another push to the upside. It remains to be seen whether or not that will take place.

Clearly this is an emotional market that’s been driven more by sentiment then hard economic news.

Having said that, one must take into consideration the perception of the marketplace, and as of right now that perception continues to be friendly towards the long side of these markets.

In our new video we show you some of the key points to look at in terms of where these markets could potentially break down, and possibly reverse to the downside.

Just Click Here to watch the video, and as always please feel free to leave a comment and let us know where you think the Dow is headed.


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Double Tops and Pivot Points Explained

Today we want to share with you a chart pattern that the pro’s use everyday to great effect. The chart pattern we will be looking at, is one of my favorites as it has a high reliability factor.

The chart pattern in this short video is well known inside the professional trading community. However, outside of the pro circle it seems to be shrouded in mystery.

In this short 3 minute video, we peel away the layers of mystery and show you step by step how you can personally benefit from this chart pattern that occurs in all time frames.

What’s amazing to me about this chart pattern, is the fact that after over 3 decades of real world trading, it continues to repeat itself.

Click Here To Watch The Video

With that fact on our side, we think it’s a safe bet that this chart pattern is likely stick around for the next generation of traders.

Please feel free to leave a comment to let us know what you think of the video.

The Psychology of Commodity Price Movement

From guest blogger Adam Hewison...

The price of a futures contract is the result of a decision on the part of both a buyer and a seller. The buyer believes prices will go higher; the seller feels prices will decline. These decisions are represented by a trade at an exact price.

Once the buyer and seller make their trade, their influence in the market is spent except for the opposite reaction they will ultimately have when they close the trade. Thus, there are two aspects to every trade: 1) each trade must ultimately have an opposite reaction on the market, and 2) the trade will influence other traders.

The price of a futures contract is the result of a decision on the part of both a buyer and a seller. The buyer believes prices will go higher; the seller feels prices will decline. These decisions are represented by a trade at an exact price.

Once the buyer and seller make their trade, their influence in the market is spent except for the opposite reaction they will ultimately have when they close the trade. Thus, there are two aspects to every trade: 1) each trade must ultimately have an opposite reaction on the market, and 2) the trade will influence other traders.....Read Complete Article

New Video For The DOW...."Perception Indicates That the Bear is Back"

We have just finished a new video on the Dow Jones Industrial Index (DOW) that we would like to share with you.

This may be a short video, but I think you’ll get a lot out it. We will analyze what’s going on right now in the DOW, how it has developed over the last six months, and where we expect the DOW to go in the next six months.

As we have discussed before, perception is everything in the marketplace. We believe that perception is beginning to change in this market and the bears are back.

You can watch this video with our compliments and there is no registration requirements. We would love to get your feedback about this video, so comment away!

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Crude Oil Lower On Demand Concerns

Crude oil was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this spring's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 67.38 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If July extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 70.94

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 73.23
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38

First support is the overnight low crossing at 69.66
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 67.38

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