Crude oil's rally continued last week and reached as high as 96.28 so far. Further rally is expected to continue to 61.8% retracement of 110.55 to 77.28 at 97.84. Though, note that rise from 77.28 could be the fourth leg inside the triangle pattern from 114.83. Hence, we'll be cautious on topping between 100 and 110. On the downside, below 92.68 minor support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, we'll stay bullish even in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 114.83 are viewed either a three wave consolidation pattern that's completed at 77.28, or a five wave triangle pattern that's still unfolding. In case, break of 110.55 resistance will strongly suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for above 114.83. While another fall could be seen before an eventual upside breakout, downside should be contained above 77.28 support.
In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.
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