Natural Gas Weekly Technical Outlook For Sunday Nov. 14th

Natural gas edged higher to 4.269 last week but failed to sustain gain and pulled back into prior range. Initial bias remains neutral this week and we'd probably see some sideway trading. But after all, rise from 3.255 is in favor to continue as long as 3.743 support holds. Break of 4.249 will target falling trend line resistance (now at 4.4). However, break of 3.743 support will indicate that rebound is finished and flip bias back to the downside for retesting this low.

In the bigger picture, current development raises the possibility that fall from 6.108 has indeed finished with three waves down to 3.255, and failed 100% projection of 6.108 to 3.81 from 5.194 at 2.896. That is, it's merely a correction to rebound from 2.409. There is no confirmation of reversal yet and key focus will be on mentioned trend line resistance from 6.108, now at around 4.4 level. Sustained break there will likely pave the way the another high above 6.108 in medium term. Though, a break below 3.255 will turn focus back to 2.409 low instead.

In the longer term picture, question remains on whether 2.409 is the long term bottom already. Downside momentum since 6.108 is so far not too convincing and it looks like 2.409 won't be violated even in case of another fall. On the other hand, natural gas is still limited well below 55 weeks EMA and 55 months EMA and there is no confirmation of reversal yet. We'll stay neutral before a break of 5.194 resistance.

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts


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Natural Gas Weekly Technical Outlook For Sunday Oct. 3rd

Natural gas continued to stay in sideway consolidations in familiar range last week and outlook remains unchanged. While another rise cannot be ruled out, we'd expect upside to be limited by 4.288 support turned resistance and bring resumption of the whole fall from 5.196. Below 3.732 minor support will suggest that such consolidation is completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 3.61 support. Break will target 3.0 psychological level next. However, decisive break of 4.288 will indicate that a short term bottom is at least formed and will bring stronger rise to 5.007 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 6.108 is still in progress and further fall should be seen to 100% projection of 6.108 to 3.81 from 5.194 at 2.896 next. More importantly, recent development revived the case that medium term rebound from 2.409 is completed at 6.108 already. Also, fall from 6.108 might indeed be resuming the long term down trend for a new low below 2.409. We'll pay attention to the structure of the current decline for more hints. On the upside, break of 4.288 resistance will be the first signal of reversal. Further break of 5.007/194 resistance zone will in turn argue that fall from 6.108 has finished.

In the longer term picture, while the bounce from 2.409 was strong, it's been limited below 55 months EMA (now at 5.814) and reversed. The failure to sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 4.498) also argue that 2.409 might not be the bottom yet. We'll stay bearish as long as this year's high of 6.108 holds and favor a new low below 2.409 going forward.

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Charts



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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Thursday

Crude oil continues to stay in tight range below 80.51 today and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Deeper retreat to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 78.12) cannot be ruled out. But after all, rise from 69.50 is in favor to continue as long as 75.69 support holds. Above 80.51 will target a retest on 83.95 high. However, note that Break of 75.69 will argue that rebound from 69.50 has completed and will turn focus back to this low.

In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above mentioned 68.59 key support and thus, there was no confirmation of medium term reversal. The strong rebound from 72.43 dampened our bearish view and argue that medium term rise from 33.2 might not be over yet. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish..... Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook Wednesday Morning

Intraday bias in crude oil remained neutral for the moment and retreat from 80.51 could extend further to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 77.69) But still, rise fro 69.50 is in favor to continue as long as 75.69 support holds. Above 80.51 will target a retest on 83.95 high. However, note that Break of 75.69 will argue that rebound from 69.50 has completed and will turn focus back to this low.

In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above mentioned 68.59 key support and thus, there was no confirmation of medium term reversal. The strong rebound from 72.43 dampened our bearish view and argue that medium term rise from 33.2 might not be over yet. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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