ONG: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Sunday August 5th

We like to drop in on the staff at Oil N'Gold to see where they think crude oil is headed. And they are looking neutral at this point.....

Crude oil rebounded strongly late last week but upside is still limited below 92.94 short term top. Initial bias remains neutral and more consolidation cannot be ruled out. But after all, even in case of another decline, near term outlook remains bullish as long as 83.65 support holds. As noted before, decline from 110.55 should have finished at 77.28 already. Current rebound from there should extend and break of 92.94 will target 61.8% retracement at 97.84 and above.

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In the bigger picture, price actions from 114.84 are viewed as a three wave consolidation pattern with fall from 110.55 as the third leg. Such decline could have finished earlier than we expected at 77.28. Sustained trading above 90 psychological level will bring stronger rally towards 114.83 resistance level. And break there will resumption whole up trend from 33.2. On the downside, another fall cannot be ruled out yet. But even in that case, strong support should be seen below 74.95 and above 61.8% retracement of 33.20 to 114.83 at 64.38 and bring another medium term rise.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

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Natural Gas Weekly Technical Outlook

Despite edging lower to 3.855 last week, Natural gas managed to stay above 3.81 support and basically engaged in sideway trading only. The development argues that down trend might not be ready to resume yet and we'll turn neutral first. Some more consolidations could be seen above 3.81 and stronger recovery cannot be ruled out. But after all, we'd expect upside to be limited by 4.386 resistance conclude the consolidation and finally bring down trend resumption. Decisive break of 3.81 low will target 3.0 psychological level next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 2.409 has completed at 6.108 and the three wave corrective structure of the rebound argues that it's merely a correction, or part of the consolidation in the larger down trend. Current fall from 6.108 might extend further for a retest on 2.409 low next after sustaining below 61.8% retracement of 2.409 to 6.108 at 3.822. Sustained trading above 4.386 resistance is needed to be the first sign that the trend in natural gas has reversed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, while the bounce from 2.409 was strong, it's been limited below 55 months EMA (now at 6.035) and reversed. The failure to sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 4.730) also argue that 2.409 might not be the bottom yet. We'll stay bearish as long as this year's high of 6.108 holds and favor a new low below 2.409 going forward.




From the staff at Oil N'Gold

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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Thursday

Crude oil continues to stay in tight range below 80.51 today and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Deeper retreat to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 78.12) cannot be ruled out. But after all, rise from 69.50 is in favor to continue as long as 75.69 support holds. Above 80.51 will target a retest on 83.95 high. However, note that Break of 75.69 will argue that rebound from 69.50 has completed and will turn focus back to this low.

In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above mentioned 68.59 key support and thus, there was no confirmation of medium term reversal. The strong rebound from 72.43 dampened our bearish view and argue that medium term rise from 33.2 might not be over yet. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish..... Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Friday Morning

Crude oil's rebound resumed after brief retreat and reached as high as 79.29 so far. The break of 78.04 resistance argues that fall from 83.95 has completed with three waves down to 69.50 already. Further rise is now in favor to retest this high first. On the downside, below 76.32 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral. Further break of 72.66 support will in turn indicate that rebound from 69.50 is finished and revive the case that fall from 83.95 is still in progress for another low below 69.50.

In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above 68.59 and the stronger than expected rebound from 69.50 mixed up the outlook. Fall from 83.95 could have completed already and whole medium term rise from 33.2 might be set to resume. Nevertheless, even in case of another rise, we'd still expect strong resistance as crude oil approaches 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to conclude the medium term rebound from 33.2. Hence, focus will remain on reversal signal.

On the downside, break of 69.50 will revive the case that medium term rise from 33.2, which is treated as a correction to fall from 147.27, should have completed at 83.95 already, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Further break of 68.50 will confirm and target next key cluster level at 58.32 (50% retracement of 33.2 to 83.95 at 58.58).....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook For Wednesday Morning

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil is still bounded in tight range below 82.0 resistance for the moment and with 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. Some more consolidations could be seen and a deeper retreat cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained by 77.83 support and bring rally resumption. Firm break of 82.0 will will confirm that whole medium term rise from 33.2 has resumed and should target next key resistance level at 90. However, considering mild bearish divergence condition 4 hours MACD, break of 77.83 will indicate that rise from 68.59 has possibly completed and will turn bias back to the downside and bring deeper fall.

In the bigger picture, the strong rally from 68.59 and sustained trading above 55 days EMA argues that whole medium term rise from 2009 low of 33.2 is still in progress for another high above 82.0. Above this 82.0 will target next key cluster resistance level at 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. Nevertheless, we'll continue to look for reversal signal as rise from 33.2, which is treated as correction to whole fall from 147.27, is expected to conclude inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone. On the downside, though, break of 68.59 is needed to revive the case that crude oil has topped out in medium term. Otherwise, outlook will be neutral at worst even in case of deep pull back.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Intraday bias in natural gas is still neutral as consolidation from 6.035 continues. Some more sideway trading could be seen but after all, we'd expect 5.29 resistance turned supprot, which is close to 38.2% retracement of 4.157 to 6.035 at 5.319, to hold and bring rally resumption. Break of 6.035 will target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005 and might have completed at 2.409 already. Rise from 2.409 is still in progress and should target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. On the downside, break of 4.157 support is needed to indicate that medium term rise from 2.409 has completed. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at worst even in case of deep pullback..... Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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