The chart shown below is a snapshot of the July Crude Oil futures. After spending the entire month slipping lower alongside of most of the major global markets, Crude Oil prices have tried to recover off of $82.00 a barrel in the first week of June.
One of the identifiable themes for this chart is the range that Crude traded in throughout May (see blue trendlines on chart). There were four days in the month when prices closed outside of this range, and this is what I feel is most important to highlight.
A common theme in market reports over the last few months has been the lack of volume in many of the futures, and markets overall. As Europe and China continue to disappoint, traders have been booking gains on their long term positions and have failed to return with the same enthusiasm that we saw when the US FED was actively easing the market.
Over the next few weeks, the markets will not only wait for the FED’s next FOMC policy statement but will also look for a final election decision out of Greece. This week, traders look to news from OPEC on Thursday as they meet to discuss oil output levels. The impact of these meetings and reports will be instrumental in determining whether many markets will recover from May’s slides, or whether they will endure another leg lower.
The reason that I chose the Crude Oil as the chart of the week is because I feel that the next time that Crude prices close outside of this range again, the move will show us a trend to trade. What I think is very important is to note how prices broke the trend on the upper end for two days, and then fell back into the range. Normally, closes above the range for multiple days would see follow through buying. Instead, prices quickly corrected lower.
Three days later, prices were not only lower; they closed outside of the range on the bottom end! Normally, traders would look for a follow through sell after two days below the range but were treated to an almost $5 rally in three days which was corrected twenty four hours later and almost corrected AGAIN twenty fours after that! If Johnny Carson were reporting on the technicals over the last eleven days, I imagine he would say, “This is some wild, weird stuff”!
With all of this in mind, I will be watching for Crude prices to close outside of the range again. I believe that the next time this happens, the trade will see follow through buying or selling instead of two days followed by a reversal. If Crude closes above the range, I will look for a continued move higher, but will definitely be recommending traders use stops below and in the range. If Crude prices begin closing below the range again, I will look for follow through selling and will recommend selling the futures with stop orders above and in the range. I will also recommend that traders utilize a trailing stop as the market allows.
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