Did You See This Explosive Signal in PCLN?

Did you see how PCLN took off like a rocket the other day? Every trader dreams of catching a trade like that. But instead of making massive profits most traders get left behind. Or they get stopped out because they were on the wrong side of the move. It’s happened to all of us and this is what it looked like this time around in PCLN.....

So you gotta ask yourself..…

• How do you know when support or resistance is likely to hold?

• How do you know when to chase a ‘rocket trade’ like this move in PCLN?

• How do you know when a breakout is really a fake out?

The answer is hidden below the surface and you can’t see it just by looking at the chart. You can’t see it looking at volume or candlesticks or other popular indicators. And when you get these questions wrong you lose money. The good news is that now there is a way you can tell - in advance - whether a move is likely to fizzle out or take off like a rocket.

All you need do is spy on what Wall Street’s biggest funds are doing. You see small retail traders don’t generate explosive moves like that. When you see a ‘rocket trade’ it’s driven by huge institutional trade volume. The problem is that 9 out of 10 traders have no clue how to spot these opportunities. And that’s why they lose.

I’m telling you this because my friend John Carter’s been developing four all new indicators that reveal when a breakout is fueled by big money and when it’s likely to fizzle out. Listen, John’s the real deal. He’s been trading for more than 25 years and he’s famous for making profitable trades like this one in PCLN in front of a live audience. 

What you need to know now is that these four new indicators are crazy accurate but they haven’t been released to the trading public yet. However, you can actually check them out now because John just did a FREE training last night and I’ve scored you access to the recording.

Listen, you probably don’t want to take another trade until you watch this video. Once you see this training you won’t look at a price chart the same way ever again. Go ahead and get the whole story now because the recording will only be up for a few days.

>>> Click Here to Watch <<<

See you in the markets,

Ray C. Parrish

aka the Crude Oil Trader

P.S. Be sure to watch this ASAP because the training is coming down soon

Get John's latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!

Seven Questions Gold Bears Must Answer

By Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst

A glance at any gold price chart reveals the severity of the bear mauling it has endured over the last three years. More alarming, even for die hard gold investors, is that some of the fundamental drivers that would normally push gold higher, like a weak U.S. dollar, have reversed.

Throw in a correction defying Wall Street stock market and the never ending rain of disdain for gold from the mainstream and it may seem that there’s no reason to buy gold; the bear is here to stay.
If so, then I have a question. Actually, a whole bunch of questions.

If we’re in a bear market, then…..

Why Is China Accumulating Record Amounts of Gold?

Mainstream reports will tell you Chinese imports through Hong Kong are down. They are.
But total gold imports are up. Most journalists continue to overlook the fact that China imports gold directly into Beijing and Shanghai now. And there are at least 12 importing banks—that we know of.
Counting these “unreported” sources, imports have risen sharply. How do we know? From other countries’ export data. Take Switzerland, for example:

So far in 2014, Switzerland has shipped 153 tonnes (4.9 million ounces) to China directly. This represents over 50% of what they sent through Hong Kong (299 tonnes).

The UK has also exported £15 billion in gold so far in 2014, according to customs data. In fact, London has shipped so much gold to China (and other parts of Asia) that their domestic market has “tightened significantly” according to bullion analysts there.

Why Is China Working to Accelerate Its Accumulation?

This is a growing trend. The People’s Bank of China released a plan just last Wednesday to open up gold imports to qualified miners, as well as all banks that are members of the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Even commemorative gold maker China Gold Coin could qualify to import bullion. Not only will this further increase imports, but it will serve to lower premiums for Chinese buyers, making purchases more affordable.

As evidence of burgeoning demand, gold trading on China’s largest physical exchange has already exceeded last year’s record volume. YTD volume on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, including the city’s free trade zone, was 12,077 tonnes through October vs. 11,614 tonnes in all of 2013.

The Chinese wave has reached tidal proportions—and it’s still growing.

Why Are Other Countries Hoarding Gold?

The World Gold Council (WGC) reports that for the 12 months ending September 2014, gold demand outside of China and India was 1,566 tonnes (50.3 million ounces). The problem is that demand from China and India already equals global production!

India and China currently account for approximately 3,100 tonnes of gold demand, and the WGC says new mine production was 3,115 tonnes during the same period.

And in spite of all the government attempts to limit gold imports, India just recorded the highest level of imports in 41 months; the country imported over 39 tonnes in November alone, the most since May 2011.

Let’s not forget Russia. Not only does the Russian central bank continue to buy aggressively on the international market, Moscow now buys directly from Russian miners. This is largely because banks and brokers are blocked from using international markets by US sanctions. Despite this, and the fact that Russia doesn’t have to buy gold but keeps doing so anyway.

Global gold demand now eats up more than miners around the world can produce. Do all these countries see something we don’t?

Why Are Retail Investors NOT Selling SLV?

SPDR gold ETF (GLD) holdings continue to largely track the price of gold—but not the iShares silver ETF (SLV). The latter has more retail investors than GLD, and they’re not selling. In fact, while GLD holdings continue to decline, SLV holdings have shot higher.

While the silver price has fallen 16.5% so far this year, SLV holdings have risen 9.5%.

Why are so many silver investors not only holding on to their ETF shares but buying more?

Why Are Bullion Sales Setting New Records?

2013 was a record-setting year for gold and silver purchases from the US Mint. Pretty bullish when you consider the price crashed and headlines were universally negative.
And yet 2014 is on track to exceed last year’s record-setting pace, particularly with silver…

• November silver Eagle sales from the US Mint totaled 3,426,000 ounces, 49% more than the previous year. If December sales surpass 1.1 million coins—a near certainty at this point—2014 will be another record-breaking year.

• Silver sales at the Perth Mint last month also hit their highest level since January. Silver coin sales jumped to 851,836 ounces in November. That was also substantially higher than the 655,881 ounces in October.

• And India’s silver imports rose 14% for the first 10 months of the year and set a record for that period. Silver imports totaled a massive 169 million ounces, draining many vaults in the UK, similar to the drain for gold I mentioned above.

To be fair, the Royal Canadian Mint reported lower gold and silver bullion sales for Q3. But volumes are still historically high.

Why Are Some Mainstream Investors Buying Gold?

The negative headlines we all see about gold come from the mainstream. Yet, some in that group are buyers…..

Ray Dalio runs the world’s largest hedge fund, with approximately $150 billion in assets under management. As my colleague Marin Katusa puts it, “When Ray talks, you listen.”

And Ray currently allocates 7.5% of his portfolio to gold.

He’s not alone. Joe Wickwire, portfolio manager of Fidelity Investments, said last week, “I believe now is a good time to take advantage of negative short-term trading sentiment in gold.”

Then there are Japanese pension funds, which as recently as 2011 did not invest in gold at all. Today, several hundred Japanese pension funds actively invest in the metal. Consider that Japan is the second-largest pension market in the world. Demand is also reportedly growing from defined benefit and defined contribution plans.

And just last Friday, Credit Suisse sold $24 million of US notes tied to an index of gold stocks, the largest offering in 14 months, a bet that producers will rebound from near six-year lows.

These (and other) mainstream investors are clearly not expecting gold and gold stocks to keep declining.

Why Are Countries Repatriating Gold?

I mean, it’s not as if the New York depository is unsafe. It and Ft. Knox rank as among the most secure storage facilities in the world. That makes the following developments very curious:

• Netherlands repatriated 122 tonnes (3.9 million ounces) last month.

• France’s National Front leader urged the Bank of France last month to repatriate all its gold from overseas vaults, and to increase its bullion assets by 20%.

• The Swiss Gold Initiative, which did not pass a popular vote, would’ve required all overseas gold be repatriated, as well as gold to comprise 20% of Swiss assets.

• Germany announced a repatriation program last year, though the plan has since fizzled.

• And this just in: there are reports that the Belgian central bank is investigating repatriation of its gold reserves.

What’s so important about gold right now that’s spurned a new trend to store it closer to home and increase reserves?

These strong signs of demand don’t normally correlate with an asset in a bear market. Do you know of any bear market, in any asset, that’s seen this kind of demand?

Neither do I.

My friends, there’s only one explanation: all these parties see the bear soon yielding to the bull. You and I obviously aren’t the only ones that see it on the horizon.

Christmas Wishes Come True…..

One more thing: our founder and chairman, Doug Casey himself, is now willing to go on the record saying that he thinks the bottom is in for gold.

I say we back up the truck for the bargain of the century. Just like all the others above are doing.

With gold on sale for the holidays, I arranged for premium discounts on SEVEN different bullion products in the new issue of BIG GOLD. With gold and silver prices at four-year lows and fundamental forces that will someday propel them a lot higher, we have a truly unique buying opportunity. I want to capitalize on today’s “most mispriced asset” before sentiment reverses and the next uptrend in precious metals kicks into gear. It’s our first ever Bullion Buyers Blowout—and I hope you’ll take advantage of the can’t-beat offers.

Someday soon you will pay a lot more for your insurance. Save now with these discounts.

The article 7 Questions Gold Bears Must Answer was originally published at casey research.

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SP500 ETF Trading Strategies & Plan of Attack for This Week

Index ETF Trading Strategies: Stocks have kick started this week with a 0.85% pop in price but the big question is if the market can hold up. Last week stocks repeatedly gap higher and sold off with strong volume telling us that institutions are slowing phasing out of stocks (distribution selling) unloading shares into strength and passing them onto the a average investor to be left holding bag.

I want to show you a couple charts which show the price action, volume and money flow of the SP500 so you have a visual of what I am talking about.

30 Minute Intraday SP500 Chart – ETF Trading Strategies

In the chart below you can see the price gaps followed by selling. Why is this important? It is important because during a down trend the market makers and big money plays who have the money and tools to manipulate the markets will allow the market drift higher or they will run price up in overnight or premarket trading when volume is light. Once the 9:30am ET opening bell rings volume and liquidity spike which allows the big money player to sell remaining long positions and or add to short positions they have.

If you look at the blue on balance volume line at the bottom of the chart you can clearly see that more contracts are being sold than bought which is typically an early warning sign that the market is about to fall farther.


 

Automated Trading System – 30 Minute ES Futures Chart

Below is a marked up screen shot of my automated trading system which I use for timing both futures and ETF trading strategies. The color coded bars tell you the market trend along with the strength of buyers and sellers.

When you couple market cycles, trends, volume/money flow, along with chart patterns we can forecast and trade markets with a high degree of accuracy in terms of market direction and timing.


 
My Index ETF Trading Strategies Conclusion:
 
Just to be clear on the current market trend and my overall outlook let me explain a little more. Overall, the broad stock market remains in an uptrend. Thursday and Friday of last week we started getting orange bars on the chart telling us that cycles, volume, and momentum are now neutral. It’s 50/50 on which way the market will go from here, so until the market internals (cycles, volume, breadth) push the odds in our favor enough for a short sell trade or a new long entry we will not add new positions to our portfolio.

It is important to understand that nearly 75% of stocks/investments move with the broad market. So we don’t want to add more long positions when the odds are not in favor of higher prices. Trading in general is not hard to do, but creating, following, executing properly money and position management is. If you have trouble with following or creating an ETF trading strategy you can have my ETF trading system for rising, falling and sideways markets traded automatically in your trading account.

Learn more here about my Automated Trading Systems

See you in the market! 
Chris Vermeulen



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Are You Going to Catch the Next Big Move in Crude Oil? USO

It looks like a very powerful setup in crude oil, especially ticker USO, is right around the corner. We are looking for price action to move higher with a squeeze on higher volume in the making.

And here's how our trading partner John Carter of Simpler Options is playing the coming move.

In todays video John will show us his trade in detail and again this is a trade that can be done with any size account with limited risk. 

Click here to watch todays video "Are You Going to Catch the Next Big Move in Crude Oil?"

Precious Metals: Gold, Silver and Miners Are Trapped

The precious metal market has been stuck in a strong down trend since 2012. But the recent chart, volume and technical analysis is starting to show some signs that a bottom may have already taken place.

This report focused on the weekly and monthly charts which allow us to see the bigger picture of where the precious metals sector stands in terms of its trend. Let’s take a look at a few charts below for a quick overview, but if you want more interesting ...... Click here to Read More.

EIA: Underground Natural Gas Working Storage Capacity

Natural gas working storage capacity increased by about 2 percent in the Lower 48 states between November 2011 and November 2012. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has two measures of working gas storage capacity, and both increased by similar amounts:

*   Demonstrated maximum volume increased 1.8 percent to 4,265 billion cubic feet (Bcf)

*   Design capacity increased 2.0 percent to 4,575 Bcf

Maximum demonstrated working gas volume is an operational measure of the highest level of working gas reported at each storage facility at any time over the previous five years, according to EIA's monthly survey of storage operators. Working gas is the volume of natural gas in an underground natural gas facility available to be withdrawn, not including base gas.

The maximum demonstrated working gas volume is a practical measure of full storage. Filling storage, which requires compressors to inject the gas into the storage facility, becomes more difficult and expensive as storage volume nears its maximum and pressures inside the facility increase.

That's why the demonstrated maximum is generally less than the design capacity, averaging 93% over the past two measurement periods (see Table 1), and why any given week's storage inventory is generally less than the demonstrated maximum. The maximum demonstrated volume provides guidance to operators and market analysts on the economics of filling the system.

Last October, for example, when working gas in storage reached a record-high of 3,930 Bcf, a simple calculation using the then current maximum demonstrated volume (4,188 Bcf) showed storage to be 94% full.

Read the entire EIA Report


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The 30 Second Technical Flash Chart Report on U.S. Equities

Chris Vermeulen shows us how U.S. Equities opened higher on Monday and are, in his opinion,  setting up for a sharp pullback based on technical analysis using trends, cycles, momentum, volume, market breadth and key resistance zones.

Take a look at his chart work for a quick flash of what he thinks.

Entire article > "The 30 Second Technical Flash Chart Report on US Equities"



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Seven Keys in Timing Stock Market Tops – Part II

Timing stock market tops and bottoms is risky business and we all know the more the more risk we take the more potential gain would could also made. Correctly timing a top or bottom for any investment is flat out exciting not to mention financially rewarding. But this high risk trading tactic does come with some major issues which you must FULLY understand so that you can protect your capital and self confidence.

On May 13th I wrote a special report on how to spot market tops just before they happen and how to do it with a very high probability of success. I also explain the major pit falls to be aware of so you stay on the right side of the market.

I recommend you read this special report right now.... "How to Spot and Time Stock Market Tops"

That special report truly showed you what was going to happen a few weeks before it did. Much like how this report shows you what is likely to happen in June.

Looking at the market with my YOU ARE HERE type of using cycles, volume, price patterns and momentum to forecast what is likely to unfold in the coming weeks. Depending on the time frame used for my analysis I can figure out with a high probability where price will be in a few minutes, hours or days also. Mall Market Directory – You Are Here

Stock market tops are tough to trade and time. That is because there are so many things happening in the media and emotions running wild that it’s tough to get a grasp on what you should really be focusing on to keep a level head trade around it.

Market tops are typically not an event but rather a progression that takes much longer than most individuals expect. I still find myself jumping the gun at times and I know this and have been through this process hundreds of times in various investments. The human brain is a powerful tool but emotions can force you to override your rules/strategy still.

Stop Fighting! – Bulls & Bears are BOTH Correct at this Stage

It does not matter where you go to get your stock market news and reports… Everyone is arguing their bullish or bearish case more than EVERY. There is a reason for this and it’s because the SP500, DJIA, RUT and NASDAQ appear to be entering a cycle top. What does this mean? It means the uptrend is almost over from a technical analyst point of view, and those who are have been bearish for a long time feel the market topping out more now than ever in their gut that this is the top.

Keeping it simple removing news, economic data, emotions and biases we are left with one thing which is technical analysis. This is based on price alone and that is important to remember because the only thing that pays you money for an investment is when price moves in your favor. Believe it or not price only has blips on the charts here and there which is based off news, economic data etc… In the big picture stock prices tend to lead economic data by several months and in some cases years.

So the big question is this… If price action is the only thing that pays you when trading why bother worrying about all the other opinions, news out there. That stuff only adds to the confusion and in most cases gets you on the wrong side of the market.

Timing the Market Top Conclusion:

In short, from a technical point of view the SP500 remains in an uptrend. But according to technical analysis the upside momentum is starting to slow. If we get a few more down days then the trend will flip and be down but it has not yet happened.

When the trend does reverse down you must remember that 80% of the time price will bounce back up to test near the recent highs before truly rolling over and collapsing. Think of it like a zombie movie. Just when you think you killed one it comes back to life for one last scare before its dead.

Just to touch on stock market bottoms so you do not get confused. Stock market bottoms are little different than tops so they are traded differently. I will cover them when the time comes.

Trading the market is not easy during this type of condition, which is why members and myself got long SSO on the 23rd and two days later sold out for a 3.5% gain. I am now looking to reload this week for another bounce/rally play but only time will tell if we get another setup.

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Crude Oil Trade For This Week....Understanding Follow Through and Utilizing a Trailing Stop

From guest analyst Brian Booth.....

The chart shown below is a snapshot of the July Crude Oil futures. After spending the entire month slipping lower alongside of most of the major global markets, Crude Oil prices have tried to recover off of $82.00 a barrel in the first week of June.

One of the identifiable themes for this chart is the range that Crude traded in throughout May (see blue trendlines on chart). There were four days in the month when prices closed outside of this range, and this is what I feel is most important to highlight.

A common theme in market reports over the last few months has been the lack of volume in many of the futures, and markets overall. As Europe and China continue to disappoint, traders have been booking gains on their long term positions and have failed to return with the same enthusiasm that we saw when the US FED was actively easing the market.

Over the next few weeks, the markets will not only wait for the FED’s next FOMC policy statement but will also look for a final election decision out of Greece. This week, traders look to news from OPEC on Thursday as they meet to discuss oil output levels. The impact of these meetings and reports will be instrumental in determining whether many markets will recover from May’s slides, or whether they will endure another leg lower.

The reason that I chose the Crude Oil as the chart of the week is because I feel that the next time that Crude prices close outside of this range again, the move will show us a trend to trade. What I think is very important is to note how prices broke the trend on the upper end for two days, and then fell back into the range. Normally, closes above the range for multiple days would see follow through buying. Instead, prices quickly corrected lower.

Three days later, prices were not only lower; they closed outside of the range on the bottom end! Normally, traders would look for a follow through sell after two days below the range but were treated to an almost $5 rally in three days which was corrected twenty four hours later and almost corrected AGAIN twenty fours after that! If Johnny Carson were reporting on the technicals over the last eleven days, I imagine he would say, “This is some wild, weird stuff”!

With all of this in mind, I will be watching for Crude prices to close outside of the range again. I believe that the next time this happens, the trade will see follow through buying or selling instead of two days followed by a reversal. If Crude closes above the range, I will look for a continued move higher, but will definitely be recommending traders use stops below and in the range. If Crude prices begin closing below the range again, I will look for follow through selling and will recommend selling the futures with stop orders above and in the range. I will also recommend that traders utilize a trailing stop as the market allows.



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Monday Precious Metals and Equity Prices are Marked UP!

The past couple months have been a roller coaster ride for investors and traders. Overseas headline news has made investing and trading more difficult than normal because of prices gaping up or down at the opening bell several times per week. The next two weeks are going to be even crazier because of the Greek election and Spanish bank bailout.

This past weekend it looks as though the Spanish banks are getting bailed out which will be similar to the 2008 – 09 bailout we saw in the United States. This news has marked up stocks and commodity prices during overnight trading Sunday. The major indexes are up 1-2% across the board.

Looking at the technical and sentiment this is what I feel will take place and how it can be attacked…

Major stock indexes and commodities will be trading at resistance at the open on Monday.

And the dollar which was hit hard in overnight trading Sunday is now trading at support. A bounce in the dollar and sellers stepping in at resistance could pull the market down for session or two.

The big questions is what do traders do with this jump stocks and commodities?

The first 15 minutes of Monday’s session short sellers will be panicking out of their positions and getting stopped out. Once the dust starts to settle resistance and an oversold dollar may do their part and force the market lower later in the day.

Now if we add sentiment into this picture thinking of the masses covering their short positions in a big way we know from past events that when the masses all trade the same direction the market quickly reverses goes the opposite direction in the short term for 1-3 days.

So what does one do if they are short the market this week as I am in this boat?

Personally, I would wait 15-30 minutes to let things unfold and see what the price, volume and sentiment is doing. Keep in mind morning trends tend to stall out and roll over at 10am ET, or 11:30am ET. Knowing that; I will be watching price and volume to see if there is a bearish intraday pattern unfolding that looks as though it will unfold within those time frames. If so, I will hold my position and look for a reversal back down where I can exit at a lower price hopefully. But for all we know this news may just put the top market and we get much lower prices yet. Anyways, that is my plan as of Sunday night.

Stocks, Gold & Dollar Rising Together?

The recent few months I have been talking about how we could stocks, commodities and the dollar rise together. While is sounds crazy we just may start seeing that happen sooner than later. The Euro group appears to be willing to bailout the Spanish banks and that should cause the Euro lose more value and send the US dollar soaring.

Having more Euro liquidity is bullish for stocks and commodities along with the dollar. For all we know this just may be the financial storm for American’s next eggs (investments owned in Dollars) to rebound strongly over the next 12 months.

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The Dead Cat (SP500) Did Bounce Just As We Expected!

Stocks are pushing deep into a resistance level with very light volume… not a bullish sign. This is why we took profits yesterday with our SSO trade once we reached our dead cat bounce target of 2.5%. With it being Friday volume should only get lighter as the say progresses. I am starting to look at buying SDS as risk is low in my opinion but I’m going to let the morning play out first and re analyze in the afternoon.

Pre-Dead Cat Bounce Warning:

The rising market has sent the volatility index tumbling lower and this just goes to show why you must manage position and use protective stops. I know many of you were angry that I said to take partial profits and that we got stopped out yesterday on the VXX trade for a net gain of 2.9% in three days. Maybe one day emotional traders will see that you must trade with the market and adjust your trade outlook while in the trade. The market does not stop and wait for you to see the light, rather it will just steam roll you and never look back.

So with that being said I am starting to really like the VXX again for another buy signal. With any luck it could keep dropping for most of the session and we could go long this afternoon.

Crude oil is moving nicely in our favor today up another 2% on our 2x leveraged ETF’s. I am keeping my stop at breakeven for now as but that may change by the end of the day if we break the $109 level which is unlikely. Where to put your stops for any trade is always a tough call. It varies on the time frame, overall market condition and the size of your position so don’t think it’s just as simple s using the previous pivot high or low. That being said, those are good places for them if you have the timing correct or if the market co-operates with you…

*One key thing to point out today, the dollar bounced off support which is what I warned about last night and again this morning in pre-market. The strong bounce in the dollar has not caused any selling in oil or stocks this morning. I think that is based on the strong jobs report this morning. More jobs means businesses should be getting stronger and the more gas/oil will be consumed. But if the dollar keeps on moving higher and breaks above this key resistance level in the next few trading sessions then it will likely cause selling in stocks. Oil may hold up because demand will still be there.

Let’s see how this week unfolds!

Chris Vermeulen – Get our free Trade Ideas at Technical Traders.Com

Precious Metals, Equities and Crude Oil Long Term Outlook Part II

It’s that time of year again and I’m not talking about the holiday season...... What I am talking about is another major market correction which has been starting to unfold over the past couple weeks.

I have a much different outlook on the markets than everyone else and likely you as well. However, before you stop reading what I have to say hear me out. My outlook and opinion is based strictly on price, volume, inter market analysis, and crowd behavior and you should put some thought as to what I am saying into your current positions.

Two weeks ago I sent my big picture outlook to my subscribers, followers, and financial websites warning of a major pullback. You can take a quick look at what the charts looked like 2 weeks ago...... 

"The Currency War Big Picture Analysis for Gold, Silver & Stocks"

Since my warning we have seen the financial markets fall:
SP500  down 2.6%
Crude Oil down 4.4%
Gold down 9.6%
and Silver down 12.2%

If you applied any leverage to these then you could double or triple these returns through the use of leveraged exchange traded funds. The amount of followers cashing in on these pullbacks has been very exciting to hear. The exciting part about trading is the fact that moves like this happen all the time so if you missed this one, don’t worry because there is another opportunity just around the corner.

While my negative view on stocks and precious metals will rub the gold and silver bugs the wrong way, I just want to point out what is unfolding so everyone sees both sides of the trade. I also would like to mention that this analysis can, and likely will change on a weekly basis as the financial markets and global economy evolves over time. The point I am trying to get across is that I am not a “Gloom and Doom” kind of guy and I don’t always favor the down side. Rather, I am a technical trader simply providing my analysis and odds for what to expect next.

Let’s take a look at some charts and dig right i........

Dollar Index Daily Chart:

 

SP500 Futures Index Daily Chart:

Silver Futures Daily Chart:

Gold Futures Daily Chart:

Crude Oil Futures Daily Chart:

Mid-Week Market Madness Trend Analysis Conclusion:

In short, stocks and commodities are under pressure from the rising dollar. We have already seen a sizable pullback but there may be more to come in the next few trading sessions.

Overall, the charts are starting to look very negative which the majority of traders/investors around the world are starting to notice. With any luck they will fuel the market with more selling pressure pushing positions that my subscribers and I are holding deeper into the money.

Now that the masses are starting to get nervous and are beginning to sell out of their positions, I am on high alert for a panic washout selling day. This occurs when everyone around the world panics at the same time and bails out of their long positions. Prices drop sharply, volume shoots through the roof, and my custom indicators for spotting extreme sentiment levels sends me an alert to start covering my shorts and tightening our stops.

Hold on tight as this could be a crazy few trading session........

If you want to get these free weekly reports just  click here to join my free newsletter! 

Chris Vermeulen

Crude Oil Analysis & How To Trade Oil Report

How to trade oil is not an easy thing to do in today’s headline driven market. Even the best oil analysis which may have been correct will still be wrong at times. This is due to the fact that oil has many factors which play into its price. Things likes like extreme weather conditions, geopolitical events, currency fluctuations, economic conditions and supply and demand.

During any time of the day oil traders and their oil analysis stand a good chance of having one of these factors directly affect the price of crude oil messing up their charts.

But, I am a firm believer that these factors (news events) generally fall in line with the overall larger trend of oil. So understanding how to spot trends in oil is a vital part of the equation.

Another important aspect of trading crude oil along with stocks and commodities is for you to understanding how to trade price and volume at an intraday time frame. If you don’t understand candle sticks, chart patterns and volume will get your head handed to you more times than not.

Let’s take a look at some charts which cover everything you need to know in great detail…...

How to Trade Oil Daily Chart Analysis:

Below you can see clearly how the overall trend is down for oil. You can also see the repeated bearish patterns and key resistance levels. In my oil analysis I focus on finding and trading the trend. You will not find me trying to pick a major top or bottom with my strategy; rather I focus on low risk high probability continuation patterns within a trend.

Once the trend stops and reverses there will likely be one or two losing trades as the investment shakes things up and sentiment slowly comes around and shifts to support the new trend in oil.

Intraday Crude Oil Analysis:

This is a chart of Oct 19^th using a 5 minute interval. The annotations on the chart explain clearly what I saw and was hoping to see for an oil etf trade setup this week.

How To Trade Oil Conclusion:

In short, I have been waiting for this setup to unfold for a few days now. This report goes to show that if you have the patients to site back, watch and wait you will trade with much less risk. By doing this you reduce risk on your overall position because you can time your entry 1-3 days before oil moves in your favour getting you the best possible price. Also the less time you have to keep your money in a trade the better because of the factors (news events) I told you about earlier. Cash is king! Get my bi-weekly reports and videos by joining my free oil newsletter here at The Gold and Oil Guy.Com

Chris Vermeulen

It Looks Like Crash or Crush Time For Equities and Gold

The past couple weeks have been choppy in the equities market. While the strong intraday moves are great for day traders, it is extremely difficult for swing/position traders who normally hold positions for 3-60 days in length, which is my focus with this newsletter. That being said, we are reaching a do or die point for the equities market and next week there should be a strong move out of this trading range.

On the volume side of things, we have been seeing distribution taking place. Heavy volume continues to step into the market unloading large amounts of shares. The interesting part is that the majority of traders are bullish and sentiment levels are at extremes. Also, we are seeing the retail trader enter the market… What does this mean? It means we must trade very cautious and large positions on the long side shouldn’t be taken. The selling volume and extreme bullish sentiment are warning us that a correction is near.

There are a few things I watch to identifying trend reversals and they are accumulation or distribution of shares, Extreme sentiment readings, Market internals/breadth, and if the price relative to the 20 SMA. Currently we are seeing all the signs of a reversal to the down side, but it has yet to be confirmed.

My trading buddy JW Jones who focuses strictly on Options Trading has been cleaning up with the current volatility making 21%, 50% and 67% returns on his last threes trades. This guy loves volatility and always seems to put together an option play with very little risk yet big upside potential.

Just Click Here take a look at a couple charts that Chris Vermeulen has posted......


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Lack of Volume, Lack of Traders....It's Silly Season Again!

From guest blogger Adam Hewison.....

About a year ago I wrote a blog on the “silly season,” as I call it. The silly season starts on December 15 and extends through the first week of January. The silly season has nothing to do with telling jokes and laughing at funny things, but everything to do with trading. Trading is a serious business. If you want to be successful you have to practice, just like an athlete would. I don’t think there is an athlete out there who just woke up and said I’m going to be a world class athlete and achieved that goal without practicing. After December 15 most successful traders who made their money during the year are headed to either Florida, Palm Springs, or just taking a break to spend time with family. What makes the silly season, silly?

It has everything to do with the lack of volume in trading. When you have very little volume it is easy for markets to be, forgive me because I am about to say the M word, manipulated, by just a few traders. You do not want to be ending your year at the mercy of markets that are erratic at best. You may as well just head out to Las Vegas and take a shot at the roulette wheel.

So how can you avoid this trading trap? Here’s what I do every year:
After the 15th I close out all of my positions win, lose, or draw, and say thank you very much for another good year. Once I have cleared my trading book I’m free to enjoy the silly season without falling prey to the big M. I let the markets be the markets, because I know they will be there next year and I want to be prepared physically and mentally to take advantage of them.

That being said, here are my five key recommendations for you during silly season.....

1. Enjoy time with your family and friends.

2. Be appreciative what you have, not what you don’t have. There are a lot more folks that have a whole lot less than you than folks who have more.

3. Give something back. It doesn’t matter what it is, or how small, give something back; it will make you feel good.

4. Enjoy the season. Forget about the markets they will be there next year.

5. Take some quiet time for yourself to regenerate your spirit.

For me, number 5 means sitting in a quiet room by myself and thinking about all of the different things that have happened in the past year. Doing this keeps me grounded and prepares me for the year ahead. This quiet time helps me put everything into perspective and gets me in the right frame of mind for trading in the New Year. This quiet time restores your inner strength, which is something you need in trading.

So there you have it. That is how I avoid silly season and prepare myself for the new trading year.


Just click here for a free sample of the "Trading Triangles" that Adam relies on. Also take a minute to consider his "10 Free Trading Lessons". Get next years trading started on the right foot.

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