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John Carter of Simpler Options is going to teach you more in this one hour webinar, than you could learn in 3 months. And he's doing it just for you....our readers. Register here asap since John does limit seating.

Here's what he'll be covering...

*     How to be on the same side as the Market Maker
*     How to protect yourself in a trade
*     How to pick the right stock at the right time
*    What Wall Street doesn't want you to know about weekly options
*    The one simple trick to put the odds in your favor

And much more

This timely webinar will take place online but seating is limited due to the high demand.

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After you register you will receive reminder emails automatically so you don't miss the webinar. I don't know if they'll be recording this, or if he'll ever share this information again, so don't miss out.

See you in this free training class.

Then we'll see you in the markets, as we put John's methods to work,

Ray @ The Crude Oil Trader


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Annual Energy Outlook 2012.....Three Cases for the Future of World Oil Prices

The Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (AEO2012) presents three alternative paths for world oil prices based on different production and economic assumptions. Among these cases, the real (constant 2010 dollars) oil price in 2035 ranges from $62 per barrel in the Low Oil Price case to $200 per barrel in the High Oil Price case, with the Reference case at $145 per barrel.

The oil price in AEO2012 is defined as the average price of light, low-sulfur crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma, which is similar to the price for light, sweet crude oil traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (West Texas Intermediate, or WTI).



Factors considered in AEO2012 that affect supply, demand, and prices for petroleum in the long term are:

* World demand for petroleum and other liquids

* Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) investment and production decisions

* The economics of non OPEC petroleum supply

* The economics of other liquids supply

The Reference case of AEO2012 indicates a short term increase in oil price, returning to price parity with the Brent oil price by 2016, as current constraints on pipeline capacity between Cushing and the Gulf of Mexico are moderated.

The Low Oil Price case results in a projected oil price of $62 per barrel in 2035. The Low Oil Price case assumes that economic growth and demand for petroleum and other liquids in developing economies (which account for nearly all of the projected growth in world oil consumption in the Reference case) is reduced.

Specifically, the annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the world, excluding the mature market economies that are members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), is assumed to be 1.5 percentage points lower than that of the Reference case in 2035 (only a 3.5% annual increase from 2010 to 2035), which reduces their projected oil consumption in 2035 by 8 million barrels from the Reference case projection.

While non OECD oil consumption is more responsive to lower economic growth than to prices, oil use in the OECD region increases modestly in the Low Oil Price case. In this lower price case, the market power of OPEC producers is weakened, and they lose the ability to control prices and to limit production.

In contrast, the High Oil Price case assumes prices rise to $186 per barrel by 2017 (in 2010 dollars) and then increase to $200 per barrel by 2035. These higher prices result from higher demand for petroleum and other liquid fuels in non OECD regions than projected for the Reference case. In particular, the projected GDP growth rates for China and India are 1.0 percentage point higher in 2012 and 0.3 points higher in 2035 than the rates in the Reference Case.

Overall, in 2035 it is projected that 4 million barrels per day will be produced above the Reference Case level, even though projected oil consumption in the mature, industrialized economies is reduced.

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Crude Oil Declines the Most in Five Weeks

Crude oil fell the most in more than five weeks as U.S. orders for durable goods dropped in January by the most in three years, signaling slower economic growth and lower fuel demand.

Futures declined 1.9 percent in New York as data from the Commerce Department showed bookings for goods meant to last at least three years slumped 4 percent. An Energy Department report tomorrow will show U.S. crude supplies rose to the highest level in five months last week, according to the median of analyst responses in a Bloomberg News survey.

“The durable goods numbers do not paint a picture of robust demand going forward,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “We’re going to see builds in this week’s report, which is also putting downward pressure on prices.”

Read the entire Bloomberg article

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EIA: Asia is the World's Largest Petroleum Consumer

2010

Asia surpassed North America as the largest petroleum consuming region in 2008. Asian demand surged nearly 15 million barrels per day from 1980 to 2010, an increase of 146%. North America's petroleum consumption increased 16% between 1980 and 2010. Global petroleum consumption increased 36%, nearly 23 million barrels per day, during the period.

Together, the Middle Eastern, Central & South American, and African share of total global oil demand grew from 11% in 1980 to 20% in 2010 (see chart below). European demand for petroleum decreased 5% from 1980 to 2010, while consumption in the Former Soviet Union fell 55% in the same period.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics.

Note: Percents on graph represent that region's share of global petroleum production in that year. Percents do not sum to 100% for each year because the graph does not include Oceania, which only accounted for 1% of global consumption each year. 

Musings: Imagining The Future for The Natural Gas Industry

A week ago Monday, the December natural gas futures contract traded on the CME exchange closed out its existence at $3.36 per thousand cubic feet of gas (Mcf), down $0.18 from the closing price of $3.54/Mcf posted the previous trading day, which happened to be the Friday after Thanksgiving and a notoriously light trading day. Natural gas prices had been buoyed in the period immediately before Thanksgiving by expectations that colder than normal weather over large parts of the gas consuming areas of the country would hike demand.

Futures prices were higher despite large and growing natural gas storage volumes. On that last trading day, cold weather prospects had shifted in favor of expectations for warmer than anticipated temperatures and thus depressed gas demand. The price drop, one of the largest daily corrections in a long time, brought further pain to industry participants. But as one private equity investor very active in the upstream oil and gas business put it, "It's got to change!" Yes, it will. The problem is that it could get worse!

The price drop, one of the largest daily corrections in a long time, brought further pain to industry participants

We've been spending considerable time wrestling with trying to define the natural gas industry's outlook as it is very important for this country's economy and for those people who are actively engaged in the business. Could it get worse? Can it get better? Current industry conditions reflect a certain Jekyll and Hyde quality, activity is up and growing but the price for the product is low and falling. What would it take for natural gas prices to recover? Would those actions help or hurt future industry activity?

Beyond those immediate concerns, we are wrestling with what the next phase for the industry might look like? How will the industry change as it transitions from its current state to whatever that next phase is? Will natural gas play an even greater role in our nation's power generation business? Can natural gas power a meaningful segment of our future car and truck fleet? Will the U.S. remain a natural gas importer or become a significant gas exporter?

These and many other questions have been filling our head and dominating our discussions with people in the business. To try to make sense of what is happening now, but more importantly what might happen in the future, we felt we needed to step back and take a very high level perspective of the business and current trends. It meant we needed to get away from the trees that restrict our view of the forest. (It will take several articles to examine these issues and attempt to define how the future might unfold.)

So far this year, it becomes clear we have experienced two distinctly different outlooks for the industry.

When we look at a chart of the price of the near month natural gas futures contract (Exhibit 1) so far this year, it becomes clear we have experienced two distinctly different outlooks for the industry. One was predicated on optimism about a growing economic recovery coupled with anticipation for falling natural gas production. The other view was marked by a weak economy with a potential for it getting worse given global economic and credit market uncertainties, coupled with growing frustration over continuing production growth despite weak natural gas prices.......Read the entire "Musings From The Oil Patch" article


Is This December Similar to 2007 & 2008 for Gold & Stocks?

Crude Oil Market Commentary For Monday October 3rd

Crude oil is trading lower this morning as it extends the trading range of the past two months. Traders are all but convinced that Greece will default on debt payments, leading the way to slower global economic growth and less demand for fuel. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible near term.

If November extends last week's decline, August's low crossing at 76.61 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.13 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.89. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.13. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 77.11. Second support is August's low crossing at 76.61. If crude cannot hold the 75.71 level we see a quick move to the psychological 70 dollar level. Crude oil pivot point for Monday morning is 80.32.


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Saudi Arabia: Peak Oil Forecasts Are Ridiculous Because We'll Keep Prices Cheap For A Very Long Time

Saudi Arabia's Prince Turki Al Faisal Al Saud has thrown cold water on forecasts for an oil price superspike, speaking to energy industry peers at Rice University. His nation has the capacity to handle surging demand from both China and other rapidly developing nations.

While many energy analysts are predicting a sharp increase in oil prices in the coming months as a worldwide economic recovery takes hold and demand from China and India increases, Saudi Arabia says it will work to mitigate that rise. Saudi Prince Turki Al Faisal Al Saud says his country has the capacity to play that role for some decades to come.

In his speech to energy industry representatives and academics at the Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University, Prince Turki Al Faisal Al Saud emphasized his nation's commitment to a stable oil market. He said the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's ample oil reserves of over 264 billion proven barrels give it the power to offset sharp increases in demand.

"As the demand for oil continues to rise, especially in China and India, the kingdom has every intention of meeting that demand," said the prince.

As for the Saudi prince's call for more transparent reporting on energy use in China and other large consumer nations, Jaffe says this could help control speculation and stabilize the market.
"There are questions about Chinese oil demand," said Jaffe. "Were they buying for their strategic reserve or was that fundamental growth in demand? When the market cannot know for sure you get these movements in price."

Thus price surges are more the result of market confusion and speculation rather than long term fundamentals, he seems to believe.

Posted courtesy of The Business Insider

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Narrow Trading Continues Ahead of US Retail Sales

Commodities continue to in a consolidative manner in European session after Friday's selloff as the market awaits the next step the Chinese government walks in curbing inflation. Investors also hold breath as Ireland will discuss with EU officials on its financial problems in Brussels tomorrow. The front-month contract for WTI crude oil price hovers around 85 while fuel prices also grind higher. Gold changes little, trading below 1380 in both Asian and European session. PGMs extend weakness with platinum and palladium plunging below 1680 and 670 respectively.

Worries about Chinese tightening have weighed on oil and base metal prices as the government's measures, such as rate hike and raise in RRR, limit investments and hence, demand for these commodities. Indeed, China's impacts extend to precious metals. Recall that when the People's Bank of China raised near term interest rates last month (October 19), gold price slumped with the benchmark COMEX contract falling from 1371.7 to 1328 on that day. The impacts on PGMs will be as big as base metals as China is the world's largest auto producer and consumer.

According to Bombay Bullion Association, India’s gold imports jumped +65% y/y in October as driven by Diwali. India’s demand for other commodities such as oil and agricultural products should also surge in coming years. EIA’s Short-term Energy Report forecast annual growth in oil demand in India will be +7.95% in 2010 and +4.21% in 2011. The pace will exceed that of China (2010:+4.26%; 2011: 0.00%) although the absolute amount is still small.

Posted courtesy of Oil N Gold.Com


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Crude Oil Rises for First Time in Three Days on Optimism U.S. Demand May Gain

Crude oil climbed for the first time in three days after the Japanese economy grew faster than expected, stoking speculation Asia’s fuel demand will increase. Futures retraced some of last week’s 2.3 percent decline after Japan’s gross domestic product rose an annualized 3.9 percent in the third quarter, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo today. The median forecast of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 2.5 percent increase.

“It gives further evidence of that Asian recovery,” said Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. “You’ve seen the recovery in China and the positive spill over affects for those economies in the Asian region. Up until now, you haven’t really seen it as much in Japan.”

December crude futures added as much as 50 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $85.38 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $85.33 at 11:53 a.m. Sydney time. Crude fell $2.93 to $84.88 on Nov. 12, the lowest since Nov. 3. Prices are up 7.6 percent this year.
Chinese oil processing rose to a record last month after refiners increased production to ease a domestic fuel shortage. Plants refined 37 million metric tons, or about 8.8 million barrels a day, in October, up 12 percent from a year earlier, China Mainland Marketing Research Co. said Nov. 11......Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil Falls as Report Shows Petroleum Demand Decreases to 10 Month Low

Crude oil fell after a government report showed U.S. petroleum demand dropped to the lowest level in more than 10 months as the economy struggled to recover. Crude declined for a third day this week after the Energy Department reported total petroleum demand decreased 0.7 percent to 18.3 million barrels a day in the week ended Oct. 8, the lowest level since the seven days ended Nov. 27, 2009. A Labor Department report today showed U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly rose to 462,000 in the week to Oct. 9.

“The demand numbers were very weak,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “We don’t really have a bull market unless we have stronger consumer demand.” Oil for November delivery fell 34 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $82.67 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier today, futures rose to a one week high of $84.12. Prices have climbed 4.2 percent this year.

Brent crude for November settlement fell 35 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $84.29 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London. The Energy Department reported demand for gasoline decreased 2 percent to 8.81 million barrels a day, the lowest level since the week ended Feb. 12. Oil also declined as the report showed crude supplies fell 416,000 barrels last week, less than the American Petroleum Institute estimated yesterday......Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil Rises, Topping $81, After U.S. Loses Fewer Jobs Than Predicted

Crude oil surged and gasoline rose to a 17-month high after U.S. employment declined less than forecast in February, bolstering optimism that fuel demand will climb in the world’s biggest energy consuming country.

Oil rose as much as 2.3 percent after the Labor Department reported that payrolls dropped 36,000 last month. The total was forecast to fall by 68,000, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. U.S. fuel use, averaged over the past four weeks, was 19.3 million barrels, up 3 percent from a year earlier, an Energy Department report on March 3 showed.

“The employment numbers were quite good relative to expectations, so I’m surprised the market isn’t responding more,” said Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president of energy at MF Global in New York.

Crude oil for April delivery rose $1.26, or 1.6 percent, to $81.47 a barrel at 12:09 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures reached $82.07, the highest level since Jan. 12. The contract is up 2.3 percent this week.

Gasoline for April delivery increased 3.13 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $2.265 a gallon in New York. The fuel touched $2.2831, the highest price since Oct. 3, 2008.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 10.83, or 1 percent, to 1,133.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 81.25 points to 10,525.39.

“We had a nice spike up on the jobless report,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “Whenever we get above $80 the bids seem to dry up. I will have to see us close above $80 for a few more days before I’m convinced we’re going to test $84.96.”

The April oil contract surged to $84.96 a barrel on Jan. 11, the highest level since October 2008.....Read the entire article.


The "Super Cycle" in Gold and How It Will Affect Your Pocketbook in 2010



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Crude Oil Trades Near a Five Week High on Speculation Demand Is Increasing

Crude oil traded near a five week high on speculation energy demand will increase as the global economy recovers from its worst recession since World War II. Global consumption may increase by as much as 1.4 million barrels a day in the second half, Iran’s OPEC governor Mohammad Ali Khatibi said in an interview on the Shana Web site yesterday. Prices pared early gains as the dollar traded little changed after posting its sixth straight weekly increase against the euro, the longest streak since 2000.

“That growth story suggests that oil prices will continue to firm as the global economy recovers,” said Toby Hassall, research analyst with CWA Global Markets Pty in Sydney. “But that firming dollar, if it does continue, that will keep prices fairly well in check.” Crude oil for March delivery rose as much as 30 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $80.11 a barrel in after hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $80.06 at 7:55 a.m. in Singapore.

The contract, which expires today, rose 0.9 percent to $79.81 on Feb. 19, the highest settlement since Jan. 12. The more actively traded April contract rose 31 cents to $80.37 today. Oil prices climbed 7.7 percent last week, the biggest gain since October, as U.S. refiners lifted operating rates for a second week and the Federal Reserve increased its discount rate for the first time in three years amid signs of recovery in the nation’s economy.....Read the entire article.


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Crude Stays Strong Ahead of Holiday But Yet to Confirm Correction is Over

Despite thin trading ahead of long holiday, crude oil price's near term outlook remains strong. Currently trading at 77.2, the February contract is hovering around the highest level in 3 weeks. After plummeting to as low as 68.59 on December 14, the black gold has rebounded steadily as inventory levels from developed economies declined, showing signs of demand recovery. However, we are yet to confirm if crude oil has resumed the rise from 33.2 (January 2009) until price can trade sustainably above 80. On monthly basis, December will be a volatile month but actual gain or loss will be minimal.

Natural gas soars for the third consecutive day and has gained +1.4% so far this week. The market sentiment has turned after gas inventory dropped in the past 2 weeks. Later today, the US Energy Department will probably report that gas storage declined -171 bcf to 3395 bcf in the week ended December 18.....Read the entire article.

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China's Oil Demand for November Up by 18.7%

According to Platts, China's apparent oil demand in November soared 18.7% from a year ago as the country's economic recovery picked up momentum. November's surge in oil demand marked the third straight month that the world's second largest oil consumer posted double digit yearly growth in oil demand. Chinese oil demand was estimated to reach 33.67 million mt (8.22 million barrels per day) in November, versus 28.36 million mt a year ago, a Platts analysis of official data showed on December 21. November oil demand was slightly less than the 33.89 million metric tons (8.01 million b/d) seen in October.

"China has pulled out all the stops this year to be sure that its economy has performed well throughout the global financial crisis. That has had a dramatic impact on oil demand in the country," said Dave Ernsberger, Platts senior editorial director for Asia. "Lifting demand for oil by double digits month after month was not Beijing's goal when it injected half a trillion dollars into its economy this year, but it was one of the most significant consequences".....Read the entire article.


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When Will Real Oil Demand Growth Appear?

How do you know when the economic recovery really begins? It is when real oil demand growth appears? Not just artificial demand growth being propped up with smoke and mirrors but demand growth that comes with solid economic activity and global growth. Growth that hopefully will be ignited by the low prices that will come when we start to remove the life supports to the economic system and global currency exchange rates start to normalize. Oil demand growth will be the thermometer that will take the economy's temperature and tell us that we are indeed getting healthy.

Believe it or not these are some of the same sentiments that are being expressed by the International Energy Agency. Well at least partly. Today the advisor to 24 consuming nations said while increasing it oil consumption forecast globally by 1.5 million barrels per day to 86.3 million barrels that demand from major consumers may herald an economic recovery. Of course while I agree that things are getting better I still wonder whether this oil demand growth is solid enough to grow on its own. Can it continue to grow without the massive stimulus and will it continue when demand goes away.

The IEA says that oil demand will increase a little bit mainly due to demand growth in China. Yet at the same time the growth out of China is as mysterious as the country.....Read the entire article.


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Oil Supply Set to Grow Through 2030 with No Peak Evident

Global oil productive capacity will grow though 2030 with no evidence of a peak of supply before that time, according to a new report by IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates based on analysis of more than 10,000 projects around the globe. The report, The Future of Global Oil Supply: Understanding the Building Blocks extends IHS CERA's global oil outlook through 2030 and expects global oil productive capacity to grow to as much as 115 million barrels per day (mbd) through that period from the current level of 92 mbd, a 25 percent increase. Post 2030 supply could struggle to meet demand but this would take the form of a decades long "undulating plateau" rather than a sharp fall, the report says.

"There is more than an adequate inventory of physical resources available to increase supply to meet anticipated levels of demand through 2030," said Peter Jackson. "It would be easy to interpret the market and oil price trends from 2003 through 2009 in isolation to support the belief that a peak in global supply has passed or is imminent. But this only illustrates that the market continues to act as the shock absorber of major volatility".....Read the entire article.

Phil Flynn of PFG Best "Jobs Jab Oil Bulls"

Jobs losses are mounting and oil supplies are rising. It is time to face facts. Recent economic data is undermining the bull's oil case. Welcome to the jobless economic recovery that should reduce oil demand expectations even further as we look out into our future. Oil prices slid as our nation's unemployment reached a painful 9.8% and we lost 263,000 jobs. The oil bulls had better hope the dollar collapses if they are going to have any luck defending these lofty price levels. US supplies are staggering but even more so when you consider the weakened state of the jobs market. With the US being a consumer based economy, it does not bode well for a quick return to robust growth.....Read the entire article

Crude Oil Is Set for Weekly Gain on Dollar, China’s Demand

Crude oil rose for a fifth day as the dollar fell toward a nine month low and industrial production in China, the world’s second biggest energy user, grew at a faster pace than forecast. Oil is poised for its first weekly gain in three after the dollar reached its lowest level since Dec. 18 against the euro for a second day as China’s factory output gained and new loans exceeded analyst expectations, reducing demand for the U.S. currency as a refuge. A weaker dollar increases demand for commodities as a hedge against inflation. “The expectation is that China is on a strong growth path,” said David Moore, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd. in Sydney. “Also supportive of oil prices was the fact that the U.S. dollar has remained fairly soft.” Crude oil for October delivery rose as much as 41 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $72.35 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $72.26 a barrel at 11:43 a.m. Singapore time. Prices have gained 6.3 percent this week and climbed 62 percent this year.....Read the entire article

Natural Gas Drops to Seven Year Low on Slow Rebound in Demand

Natural gas futures fell for an eighth day, touching the lowest price in almost seven years, on concern that fuel demand will be slow to strengthen because of a sluggish economic recovery. Gas dropped along with energy markets and equities after Japan’s economy expanded less than economists estimated. The threat of disruption to oil and gas output in the Gulf of Mexico receded as Tropical Storm Claudette went ashore in Florida and Ana was downgraded as its winds weakened. “The biggest pusher for the energy sector is watching the economy,” said Scott Hanold, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets in Minneapolis. “The way to look at things is that they are getting less bad. It’s not like we’re seeing up-ticks” in demand.....Complete Story

Slumps In China Stocks Pressure Commodities

Crude oil's decline accelerates in European morning. Currently trading at 65.9, further weakness to 63 cannot be ruled out as anticipation on demand improvement diminished. Others in the energy complex also plunge with heating oil losing almost -2% to 1.802 while gasoline sliding to 1.921. Stock markets tumbled in Asia. In China, the Shanghai Composite Index slumped almost -6% to settle at 2871. The gauge rallied to as high as 3471 in August and a deep correction has followed since then. Other closely watched indices also plummeted. Japan's Nikkei 225 stock Average slid -3.1% to close at 10269 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index plunged -3.6% to 20137.....Complete Story