Are Oil Inflation Pains Here to Stay?

Discussing whether oil inflation is here to stay, with Addison Armstrong, Tradition Energy, and Dennis Gartman, The Gartman Letter.

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Addison Armstrong: Where Are Oil Prices Now?

Financial Market Forecast is Looking Bleak

Mideast violence is pushing oil higher, while Europe's economy is bringing the commodity lower, reports CNBC's Sharon Epperson, with Addison Armstrong, Tradition Energy.

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Crude Oil Declines the Most in Five Weeks

Crude oil fell the most in more than five weeks as U.S. orders for durable goods dropped in January by the most in three years, signaling slower economic growth and lower fuel demand.

Futures declined 1.9 percent in New York as data from the Commerce Department showed bookings for goods meant to last at least three years slumped 4 percent. An Energy Department report tomorrow will show U.S. crude supplies rose to the highest level in five months last week, according to the median of analyst responses in a Bloomberg News survey.

“The durable goods numbers do not paint a picture of robust demand going forward,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “We’re going to see builds in this week’s report, which is also putting downward pressure on prices.”

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Crude Falls on Concern European Debt Crisis Will Derail Economic Recovery

Crude oil tumbled, heading for its biggest weekly decline in 16 months, on concern Europe’s debt crisis will derail the global economic recovery. Futures dropped as much as 3.4 percent as equities fell amid speculation Greece’s debt crisis will spread to other countries. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said euro area countries must speed up efforts to tighten financial regulation and pursue budget consolidation. “The continued problems over in Europe seem to be infecting the rest of the world,” said Sean Brodrick, a natural resource analyst with Weiss Research in Jupiter, Florida. “If this thing continues it could really hurt the chances of a global recovery.”

Crude oil for June delivery fell $1.84, or 2.4 percent, to $75.27 a barrel at 12:32 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, it touched $74.51 a barrel, the lowest level since Feb. 16. Futures are down 13 percent for the week, the biggest drop since the week ended Dec. 19, 2008. Oil settled at an 11 week closing low of $77.11 in New York yesterday after the euro fell against the dollar and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost as much as 998.5 points, a 9.2 percent plunge that was the biggest intraday percentage loss since 1987. Futures touched $87.15 a barrel on May 3, the highest level since October 2008.

Shakeout ‘Overdue’
“The oil market was overdue for a shakeout like this,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy, a Stamford, Connecticut based procurement adviser. “Eighty seven dollars certainly wasn’t a justifiable level based on the fundamentals and if you start thinking about the potential ramifications for economic growth of what’s happening in Europe.”

A 110 billion euro ($140 billion) aid package to avoid a default by Greece has failed to prevent bond yields from rising, driving up borrowing costs for countries including Spain and Portugal. Moody’s Investors Service yesterday placed Portugal on review for a possible downgrade.

U.S. payrolls jumped 290,000 last month, more than the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, after a revised 230,000 increase in March that was larger than initially estimated, figures from the Labor Department in Washington showed today.

If commodities and equities “struggle to move higher in the wake of this positive report, the specter of bearish forces for growth may be larger than participants are currently pricing in and could push commodity and equity markets lower,” said Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics LLC, an Austin, Texas-based energy consultant, in a report today.

Equities Fall
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.7 percent to 1,119.9 at 11:38 a.m. after plunging as much as 3 percent. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities fell 0.7 percent to 260.41, the weakest since Feb. 5. Ten of the commodities retreated, led by cocoa, crude and heating oil. “The market is not getting over the concerns of where we end up after the Greece situation gets resolved,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Round Earth Capital, a New York based hedge fund that focuses on food and energy. Brent oil for June settlement declined $1.60, or 2 percent, to $78.23 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange.


Reporters Margot Habiby and Aaron Clark can be reached at mhabiby@bloomberg.net and aclark27@bloomberg.net.



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Crude Oil Falls the Most in a Week as Equities Decline, Dollar Strengthens

Crude Oil fell the most in more than a week as global equities declined and the dollar advanced on skepticism European governments will approve the Greek bailout plan quickly enough to help the country avoid default. Oil lost 1.4 percent after Greece’s largest union said it will stage a strike for a day next month and Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel said yesterday that Greece “must do its homework” to reduce its deficit. A stronger dollar reduces the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.

“Oil is lower because global equities are weaker and the dollar’s stronger,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy, a Stamford, Connecticut-based procurement adviser. Crude oil for June delivery dropped 78 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $83.42 a barrel at 10:13 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, it touched $83.06 a barrel. Prices have risen 66 percent in the past year.
The U.S. dollar rose to $1.3306 per euro from $1.3383 in New York yesterday. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 0.4 percent to 1,207.60.

Oil and equities pared their losses after the Conference Board reported confidence among U.S. consumers increased in April to the highest level since September 2008 as Americans became more upbeat about the labor market. The Conference Board’s confidence index rose more than forecast to 57.9 from 52.3 in March, according to the New York- based private research group. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected an increase to 53.5.....Read the entire article.

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Oil Retreats on Greater Than Anticipated U.S. Jobless Claims

Crude oil retreated after more Americans than anticipated filed claims for jobless benefits last week, spurring skepticism about the strength of the recovery from the country’s worst recession since the 1930s. Oil futures dropped more than $1 from the day’s highs after the Labor Department reported that applications for jobless benefits fell by 4,000 to 570,000 in the week ended Aug. 29, exceeding the 564,000 median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Crude advanced earlier as the Shanghai Composite Index climbed 4.8 percent, the most since March 4. “The oil market is taking its direction from what happens with equities,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.....Read the complete article