Addison Armstrong: Where Are Oil Prices Now?

Financial Market Forecast is Looking Bleak

Mideast violence is pushing oil higher, while Europe's economy is bringing the commodity lower, reports CNBC's Sharon Epperson, with Addison Armstrong, Tradition Energy.

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Crude Oil Tumbles Most in Three Months as Dollar Surges, Stocks Drop

Crude oil declined the most in three months as the dollar strengthened against the euro, curbing the appeal of commodities to investors, and a slowdown in Chinese manufacturing sent global equities lower. Oil fell more than $3 a barrel as the dollar climbed to the highest level versus the common currency in a year on concern the Greek debt crisis will spread. A Chinese purchasing managers’ index fell to a six month low. Prices topped $87 a barrel for the first time in three weeks yesterday on signals the U.S. economic recovery is accelerating.

“Prices are considerably lower because the dollar is very strong and equities are being pounded,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy, a Stamford, Connecticut based procurement adviser. “There’s been a strong reversal over the last 24 hours after we failed to hang above $87 for a second time.”
Crude oil for June delivery fell $3.05, or 3.5 percent, to $83.14 a barrel at 1:53 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil dropped as much as 4.1 percent, the most since Feb. 4. Futures are up 4.8 percent this year.

Oil in New York rose as much as $1 a barrel yesterday to a 19 month high of $87.15 after the Institute for Supply Management’s factory index climbed to 60.4, the most since June 2004. Economists projected a gain to 60, based on a Bloomberg News survey. Prices last breached $87 on April 6 and 7. Brent oil for June settlement declined $3.05, or 3.4 percent, to $85.89 on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

‘The Nasty Reality’

“Yesterday’s positive economic indicators have been overtaken by the nasty reality in Europe,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. “It looks like oil will remain under pressure”....Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil Rises to 11 Week High as U.S. Dollar Slips Against Euro

Crude oil surged to an 11 week high in New York as the dollar declined against the euro, bolstering investor demand for commodities. Oil rose as much as 1.7 percent after the greenback fell against the common currency for the third time in four days. Prices slipped from the day’s highs after an Energy Department report today showed that supplies of crude oil rose by a greater than forecast 2.93 million barrels last week and that gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased.

“The market is focused on the U.S. dollar today,” said Sean Brodrick, a natural resource analyst with Weiss Research in Jupiter, Florida. “If we were trading on the fundamentals, the crude oil and gasoline numbers would be sending prices lower.” Crude oil for May delivery rose $1.01, or 1.2 percent, to $83.38 a barrel at 1:35 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up 5.1 percent this quarter. Oil traded at $83.45 a barrel before the release of the report at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.

Futures touched $83.76, the highest level since reaching $83.95 on Jan. 11. The May contract reached $85.43 a barrel on the same day. “The target du jour is $83.95, and if we are able to get through there, we will test $85.43,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. The dollar fell to $1.3534 versus the euro, down 0.9 percent from $1.3414 yesterday.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil in New York Declines the Most in Six Weeks as Dollar Gains Versus Euro

Crude oil fell the most in six weeks as the dollar strengthened against the euro, curbing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. Oil dropped as much as 2.7 percent as speculation that Greece may fail to secure financial assistance from the European Union weakened the euro, which is heading for its biggest weekly decline against the dollar since January. Total U.S. fuel demand dropped the most since November in the week ended March 12, the Energy Department reported this week.

“The market looks like it’s tracking the dollar play,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “It’s also retreating from the $83 level because fuel demand dropped below the five year average.” Crude oil for April delivery fell $2.10, or 2.5 percent, to $80.19 a barrel at 11:11 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, it touched $80.07, the biggest drop since Feb. 5. Futures are down 1.3 percent this week.

The dollar traded at $1.3511 against the euro, compared with $1.3608 yesterday. It’s poised to gain 1.9 percent this week, the biggest increase since the week ended Jan. 29. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities declined 1 percent to 272.75, the steepest drop since March 4. Seventeen of the commodities traded lower. Total fuel demand dropped by 4.2 percent to 18.8 million barrels a day last week, 7.8 percent below the five year average for the second week in March. It was the biggest one-week decline since the week ended Nov. 6.....Your keyword.

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Crude Oil Drops the Most in 6 Months as Stocks Tumble, Dollar Strengthens

Crude oil tumbled the most in six months as the dollar gained and a drop in stocks bolstered skepticism that the economic recovery will be sustained. Oil fell as much as 5.4 percent as the greenback climbed versus the euro, curbing the appeal of commodities as an alternate investment. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped after more Americans filed first time claims for unemployment insurance last week, raising concern that an improvement in the job market is stalling.

“Oil is down because of the dollar’s strength and the poor fortunes of the S&P, especially after the jobs report,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “The whole commodity sector is looking weak today.” Crude oil for March delivery fell $3.83, or 5 percent, to $73.15 a barrel at 11:49 a.m. New York time. Oil declined as much as $4.12 to $72.86, and is heading for the biggest daily drop since July 29. Prices are up 81 percent from a year ago.

“Everything on the screen is red because of negative economic news,” said Chip Hodge, who oversees a $9 billion natural resource bond portfolio as senior managing director at MFC Global Investment Management in Boston. “Unless the economy rebounds, prices should move in one direction, south.” The dollar climbed to the highest level against the euro since May after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the economic outlook is subject to “uncertainty.”

The dollar traded at $1.3745 per euro, up from $1.3893 yesterday. It traded earlier at $1.3728, the highest level since May 21.

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Crude Oil Rises for First Time in Four Days as Dollar Weakens

Crude oil rose for the first time in four days as the dollar declined, bolstering the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation. Oil climbed as much as 2.9 percent as the U.S. currency slipped to $1.4821 per euro, its weakest level since Sept. 23, 2008. Net crude oil imports by China, Asia’s biggest energy consuming country, increased 18 percent to 17.92 million metric tons in August, the second highest level on record.

“More than anything else, we are seeing a reaction to the incredible weakness of the dollar,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “Yesterday, the dollar strengthened and oil fell more than $2. Now the dollar’s plunged to the lowest level against the euro in a year and look what’s happened”.....Read the entire article

Crude Oil Rises After Report Shows U.S. Fuel Demand Increase

Crude oil rose after a U.S. government report showed that fuel supplies dropped as consumption increased to the highest level since February. Fuel demand climbed 3.1 percent to 19.3 million barrels a day last week, the highest since the week ended Feb. 27, the Energy Department said today. Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, fell 1.14 million barrels to 161.5 million. Gasoline stockpiles declined and crude oil inventories climbed. “The market is getting support from the demand number, particularly the increase in distillate demand,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.....Complete Story

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