Crude Oil Market Commentary For Monday October 3rd

Crude oil is trading lower this morning as it extends the trading range of the past two months. Traders are all but convinced that Greece will default on debt payments, leading the way to slower global economic growth and less demand for fuel. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible near term.

If November extends last week's decline, August's low crossing at 76.61 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.13 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.89. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.13. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 77.11. Second support is August's low crossing at 76.61. If crude cannot hold the 75.71 level we see a quick move to the psychological 70 dollar level. Crude oil pivot point for Monday morning is 80.32.


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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Thursday Morning Nov. 18th

Crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last week's high. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If December extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the August-November rally crossing at 78.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.03 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.03
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.03

Crude oil pivot point for Thursday is 81.06

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 80.06
Second support is the 62% retracement level of the August-November rally crossing at 78.56



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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning Nov. 16th

Crude oil was lower overnight and trading below the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.15 as it extends last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.15 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 86.07 would temper the near term bearish outlook.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 86.07
Second resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 88.63

Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 85.04

First support is the overnight low crossing at 83.56
Second support is the 38% retracement level of the August-November rally crossing at 82.44


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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Thursday Morning Nov. 4th

Crude oil was higher overnight and trading above October's high thereby renewing the rally off August's low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If December extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 86.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.72 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 86.05
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.52

Crude oil pivot point for Thursday morning is 84.54

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.96
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.72


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Crude Oil Stochastics and RSI are Turning Bullish, Higher Prices Likely

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extended Monday's rally above the 20 day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above last Monday's high crossing at 83.28 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If December renews last month's decline, trendline support drawn off the August-September lows crossing near 79.00 is the next downside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 83.86
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 84.80

Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 82.71

First support is the reaction low crossing at 79.90
Second support is the uptrend line drawn off the August-September lows crossing near 79.00


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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Thursday Morning Oct. 28th

Crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at 84.80 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If December renews last week's decline, trendline support drawn off the August-September lows crossing near 78.57 is the next downside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 83.28
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 84.80

Crude oil pivot point for Thursday morning 81.72

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 79.90
Second support is the uptrend line drawn off the August-September lows crossing near 78.57


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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Monday Morning Oct. 25th

Crude oil was higher overnight and trading above the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.27. However, stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible near term.

If December extends last week's decline, trendline support drawn off the August-September lows crossing near 78.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 84.80 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 82.99
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 84.80

Crude oil pivot point for Monday morning is 81.39

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 79.90
Second support is the uptrend line drawn off the August-September lows crossing near 78.13


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Crude Oil Bears Appear to Have a Clear Near Term Advantage, Here's Fridays Numbers

Crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight but remains below the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.78. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If December extends this week's decline, trendline support drawn off the August-September lows crossing near 78.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 84.80 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.78
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.25

Crude oil pivot point for Friday morning is 81.12

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 79.90
Second support is the uptrend line drawn off the August-September lows crossing near 78.10


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Crude Oil Signals Sideways to Lower Prices Possible

Crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline but remains below the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.33. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If December extends Tuesday's decline, trendline support drawn off the August-September lows crossing near 77.75 is the next upside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.52 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.33
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.52

Crude oil pivot point for Wednesday morning is 81.30

First support is the overnight low crossing at 79.90
Second support is the uptrend line drawn off the August-September lows crossing near 77.75

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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Monday Morning Sept. 27th

Crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends last Friday's rally above the 20 day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If November extends the rally off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 78.86 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 73.58 would renew the decline off this month's low.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 76.89
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.86

Crude oil pivot point for Monday morning is 75.94

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 73.58
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 73.08

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Are Crude Oil Signals Turning Bullish? Here is Thursday's Numbers

Crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.25 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August resumes last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 70.93 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 75.10
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.25

Thursday's pivot point for crude oil is 73.48

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 71.09
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 70.93

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Natural gas was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If August renews the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.832 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.832
Second resistance is June's high crossing at 5.249

Natural gas pivot point for Thursday morning is 4.633

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 4.477
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285

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Crude Oil Pivot, Support and Resistance Numbers For Friday Morning

Crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rebound off last Friday's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.92 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March renews last week's decline, last September's low crossing at 67.46 is the next downside target.

Crude oil pivot point, our line in the sand is 74.78

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.92
Second resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 75.69

First support is the overnight low crossing at 73.50
Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 69.50

Is Gold Poised to Go Higher or Lower?

Natural gas was lower overnight as it extends this month's choppy sideways trading pattern. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends Tuesday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 5.227 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.427 would temper the near term bearish outlook.

Friday's pivot point for natural gas is 5.366

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.427
Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.680

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 5.330
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.227

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The U.S. Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the recent breakout above the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near term.

If March extends this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 80.83
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.03
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.26

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Crude Oil Closes Higher on Short Covering, Signals Remain Bearish

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidates some of last week's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signal that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends last week's decline, December's low crossing at 72.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.89 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Monday evening's daily pivot point is 74.89, weekly pivot is 76.01

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.53
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.89

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 74.01
Second support is December's low crossing at 72.45

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Crude Oil Lower, Oversold, But Signals Remain Bearish

Crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 75.46 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.05 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Friday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 76.70

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.46
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.05

First support is the overnight low crossing at 75.62
Second support is the 75% retracement level at 75.46

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How do you Calculate the Pivot Point?

Rarely a day goes by that someone doesn't ask "how do you calculate the pivot point". And while their are many different ways of coming up with this number, let me share with you what I think is the most common method.

Pivot points are very useful tools that use the previous bars' highs, lows and closings to project support and resistance levels for future bars. Daily pivot points are useful for swing trading. Longer term pivot points provide an idea of where key support and resistance levels should be. Place the pivot points on your charts and see how traders appear to give pivot point levels a lot of respect.

Daily pivots are calculated from previous day's high, low, close. Weekly pivots are calculated from previous week's high, low, close. The pivot levels and charts are updated throughout the day to cater for data adjustments during the day.

Formula: Pivot Point = Previous trading sessions high + close + low, divided by 3.

Try working this on all of your favorite tickers and watch the traders "show some respect"!


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Crude Oil, Commodities Fall on Fed Rate Speculation

Crude oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If January extends the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 70.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.78 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Monday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 76.07

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.65.
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.78.

First support is the reaction low crossing at 72.39.
Second support is the 75% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 70.23.

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Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.810 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market. If January extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.157 is the next downside target.

Natural gas pivot point for Monday is 4.569

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.782
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.810

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 4.432
Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.157

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The U.S. Dollar was higher overnight as it extends last Friday's short covering rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If March extends last Friday's rally, November's high crossing at 77.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.35 would temper the near term bullish outlook in the market.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 76.60
Second resistance is November's high crossing at 77.27

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.51
Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.35

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Are Gold, Oil and the S&P500 Having a Seasonal Pivot Trading Low?

The last week of October was something else. Heavy fiscal year end selling for mutual funds seemed to put a damper on good news and push stocks and commodities lower. October is historically a tough month on the US market with mutual funds locking in profits on their books.

Below are some charts showing my analysis on gold, silver, oil, natural gas and the S&P 500 index along with a seasonality chart proving that October has more selling pressure than other months.

Gold GLD ETF – Gold Pivot Trading Low – Daily Chart
As you can see from the chart below we appear to be in the middle of a pivot low correction which can make for some great entry points. The trend is up, gold is oversold and it looks like we had a reversal low last week.


Silver SLV ETF – Silver Pivot Trading Low – Weekly Chart
This is a chart I posted a couple months ago and so far silver has traded within the trend lines and support & resistance levels I pointed out in early August. Silver still looks bullish as it is trading at a pivot low.


Gold Miners GDX ETF – Gold Miners Pivot Trading Low – Weekly Chart
Gold mining stocks appear to be trading near the bottom of the trend channel. The odds are still pointing to higher prices.


Crude Oil USO Fund – Oil Pivot Trading Low – Daily Chart
This chart of USO is also from a recent post in early October. USO broke out and is now trading at our support trend lines. There was a nice reversal candle last week but the heavy selling across the entire market pulled oil back down.


Natural Gas UNG Fund – Natural Gas Pivot Trading Low – Daily Chart
Pivot trading low could be close for UNG. The daily chart is telling me we saw the bottom in natural gas back in September as prices collapsed washing out most long (bullish) traders. I figure we will see prices trade between $9-12 for several months as the commodity forms a base.


S&P 500 Index – S&P 500 Pivot Trading Low – Daily Chart
The broad market looks and feels oversold. This chart uses Andrews Pitchfork analysis to show where short term pullbacks to the middle trend line (middle of trading range) have been a buying opportunity. Deeper corrections drop to the bottom support trend channel. These corrections sometimes form a lower low and lower high that scares traders and inestors out of the market before heading higher.


S&P 500 Seasonality Chart – S&P 500 Pivot Trading Low
This chart shows the performance for each month over the past 37 years. Simple analysis shows selling pressure in Sept and Oct as mutual funds sell positions to lock in gains for their books each year. This move is generally compounded because seasoned traders know about this seasonal movement and also sell positions and even short the market to take advantage of this at times.

I think we are inline for a perfect storm going into year end. The market is trading at a pivot low from many different analysis theories. This forms a high probability trading opportunity in the next 2 months if we see prices reverse and start heading higher this month.


Pivot Trading Low Conclusion:
A lot of stocks have taken a real beating this past month as sell orders flooded the trading desks last week. Technology, financials and small cap stocks took is the worst. The sharp drop is not really what we wanted to see but it makes good sense. With those groups posting the largest gains since March it is only normal that money will be coming out of those stocks to lock in gains.

Many traders are starting to panic about another possible market melt down. This negative sentiment is a bullish indicator for higher prices. If everyone is scared and exiting their positions then we must be close to trading a pivot low.

I am still bullish on the market and will be looking for new opportunities if we see prices start to head higher this month.

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Crude Oil Rally Under Pressure From Jobless Claims

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. The bullish case is under pressure this morning by worse then expected jobless claims this morning, creating demand concerns among traders.

If September extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 72.84, then June's high crossing at 74.66 are the next upside targets. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 65.23 would confirm that a top has been posted.

Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 72.53

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 72.80
Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 72.84

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 69.97
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 69.50

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The U.S. Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. However, stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 78.30 would temper the near term friendly outlook.

Closes below the reaction low crossing at 77.52 would renew this summer's decline. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 79.81 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted and would open the door for a larger degree rebound during August.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.81
Second resistance is July's high crossing at 81.16

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 78.30
Second support is this month's low crossing at 77.52

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Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If September extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 2.640 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.575 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Natural gas pivot point for Thursday is 3.12

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.34
Second resistance is broken trading range support crossing at 3.37

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3.05
Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.64

Crude Oil Slightly Higher as we Look to GDP Numbers

Crude oil traded overnight due to profit taking as traders consolidated some of Thursday's rally. While we have turned positive as we move closer to the pre market release of the GDP numbers, stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If September renews Wednesday's decline, this month's low crossing at 59.30 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 68.99 are needed to renew the rally off this month's low.

Friday's pivot point for crude oil is 65.58

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 68.99
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 74.25

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.38
Second support is Wednesday's low crossing at 62.70

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Natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If September extends this week's decline, this month's low crossing at 3.366 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.765 are needed to temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

Friday's pivot point for natural gas is 3.67

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.77
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.05

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3.46
Second support is this month's low crossing at 3.37

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Crude Oil Higher Challenging 20 Day Moving Average

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends last week's rally and is challenging the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.94. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.94 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the February-June rally crossing at 54.97 is the next downside target.

Monday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 63.94

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 64.90
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.94

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 61.44
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 58.32

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Natural gas was higher overnight as it extends last week's rally above the 20 day moving average crossing at 36.45. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.645 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the reaction high crossing at 4.138 later this month. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.461 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

Natural Gas pivot point for Monday is 3.67

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 3.785
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.138

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.461
Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 3.225

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