Global oil productive capacity will grow though 2030 with no evidence of a peak of supply before that time, according to a new report by IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates based on analysis of more than 10,000 projects around the globe. The report, The Future of Global Oil Supply: Understanding the Building Blocks extends IHS CERA's global oil outlook through 2030 and expects global oil productive capacity to grow to as much as 115 million barrels per day (mbd) through that period from the current level of 92 mbd, a 25 percent increase. Post 2030 supply could struggle to meet demand but this would take the form of a decades long "undulating plateau" rather than a sharp fall, the report says.
"There is more than an adequate inventory of physical resources available to increase supply to meet anticipated levels of demand through 2030," said Peter Jackson. "It would be easy to interpret the market and oil price trends from 2003 through 2009 in isolation to support the belief that a peak in global supply has passed or is imminent. But this only illustrates that the market continues to act as the shock absorber of major volatility".....Read the entire article.
