Weekly Futures Recap with Mike Seery

We’ve asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been a commodity Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Crude oil futures for the November contract are flirting with 4 month lows finishing lower by $1.10 at 101.90 this Friday afternoon in New York as global supplies are high while demand remains weak pressuring prices in recent months.

Crude oil is trading below its 20 day and right at its 100 day moving average and I’m still recommending traders to sell the futures contract and place a stop at the 10 day high which stands at 104.38 and I think there is a chance of crude oil dropping quickly possibly down to the $90 price level as the geo political news is bearish with Syria a distant memory.

I love trades that have a great risk/reward scenario and crude oil can pay you off big time if you are right on the trade while the risk at the 10 day high at the time of my recommendation earlier in the week was only $500.

The coffee market which I’ve talked about previously in many blogs continues to move sideways in a nonvolatile trading action up 200 points for the trading week trading at 116.60 a pound up 200 points in the December contract this Friday afternoon, however it is right at its 20 day but still below its 100 day moving average as the Vietnamese harvest is only a couple weeks away which could put harvest pressure on prices again with the possibility of going down to 100 in my opinion.

There is very little interest in coffee at this time and I’ve been trading for over 20 years and I can’t remember such a nonvolatile market as coffee generally is one of the most volatile markets in the world, however with huge supplies globally and excellent weather across the globe this market still looks weak hitting another 4 1/2 year low this week and a very bearish trade on Thursday when prices were up 300 points and then settled lower meaning traders are taking advantage of any higher prices to sell but keep an eye on this market I still think if you’re longer term trader buying coffee if prices reach 100 could pay you off in the long run.

Here is more of Mike's calls on commodities this week.

 

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Phil Flynn: Be Careful Of What You Wish For

The Federal Reserve wanted inflation and inflation is what they got! The Feds plan to restore activity to the economy by printing money and inspiring people to spend may have hit what you might call a reality check. While after a very weak jobs report showing that the economy lost 9500 jobs increasing the odds of quantitative easing, a report released simultaneously from the Department of Agriculture shows the perils of this policy. The USDA dramatically lowered its corn stocks to the lowest level in 14 years.

Corn shot up to the daily price limit sending shockwaves across the grain complex and the stock market as well. The Wall street Journal reported that, “A steep cut to U.S. corn harvest estimates triggered a rash of trades by investors who bet that tighter corn supplies could keep rippling through the stock market.“ “Analysts called the U.S. Department of Agriculture report a shocker. It shaved a record 6.7 bushels per acre from last month's corn yield estimate, pushing the figures well below.......Read the entire article.


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