Trading Crude Oil With USO

Crude oil, like most commodities, is not priced as a single data point like a stock. Instead, commodities, like oil, trade via futures contracts. A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell a particular commodity or security at a predetermined price at a specified time in the future. Futures contracts are standardized for quantity and quality specifications to facilitate trading on a futures exchange....Continue Reading Here.

VIX and Defensive Sectors React To Perceived Trend Weakness

Since early November 2020, the VIX has continued to decline and consolidate near the 22 level. Late in December 2020 and beyond, the VIX started setting up series high price spikes – which indicates a flagging downside pattern is setting up. You can see this setup across the recent VIX highs.

Additionally, the VIX has “stepped” higher, moving from lows near 19.50 to higher lows near 21.00. This upward stepping base is indicative of a shift in volatility. My research team and I interpret this data as a sign that trend weakness is starting to build after the strong rally that initiated in early November 2020.

Although we have not seen any clear sign that the markets are about to reverse or decline, this move in the VIX is suggesting that volatility is increasing. The high price “breakout”, yesterday, in the VIX suggests a flag setup is nearing an Apex/breakout point....Read More Here.

Custom Index Charts Suggest U.S. Stock Market Ready for a Pause

Weeks after the Election Rally initiated a moderately strong upside breakout rally, our Custom Index charts suggest the US stock market may be ready for a brief pause in trending before any new trends continue. Global traders and investors jumped into the US stock market just days before the US elections expecting something big to take place. The rally that initiated just days before the US election pushed our Custom Index charts well into the upper range of the 2016 to 2018 upward sloping price channel. This suggests the US stock markets have ended the downward price reversion and are now attempting to extend into the upward price channel....attempting to resume the upward trending that started after the 2016 elections.

Weekly Smart Cash and Volatility Indexes

The Weekly Smart Cash Index, below, highlights the impressive rally recently and the upward sloping price channel that is back in play for price. The highlighted range of the upward sloping price channel is actually the lower half of the std deviation range of the 2016 to 2018 price channel. So, as of right now, the Smart Cash Index price level has yet to really breach the middle of this channel and is still only within the lower half of the channel. Still, the support near the lower boundary of this level has been retested two or three times over the past six months and held. This suggests the lower channel level (the lower heavy BLUE line) is now acting as moderate price support....Continue Reading Here.

It’s Go Time for Gold - Next Stop $2,250

Research Highlights....

* Gold Pennant/Flag formation is now complete and setting

   up new momentum base near $1,925. 

* Our Adaptive Fibonacci Models suggest support will prompt 

   new Gold rally to $2,250.

* The rally in Gold will continue to extend higher over the next

   4+ weeks.

The U.S. Dollar may move lower and/or the US stock market may break recent support to prompt this new rally in Gold. If you are a follower of my research, then you know I follow gold and silver closely. I believe Gold has completed a Pennant/Flag formation and has completed the Pennant Apex. 

Further, a new momentum base has setup near $1,925 - $1,930, near the upper range of our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System’s support range. My team and I believe the current upside price move after the Pennant Apex may be the start of a momentum base rally targeting the $2,250 level or higher.....Continue Reading Here.