Mike Seerys Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, Silver and Coffee Market Summary

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Here's Mikes call on crude oil, gold and silver. Read more of his calls for this week by visiting here.

Crude oil futures in the May contract are down $1.00 this Thursday afternoon currently trading at 49.00 a barrel after closing last Friday at 40.87 basically unchanged for the trading week with very volatile trading sessions including yesterday when prices were up about $3 dollars as I’m still sitting on the sidelines in this market as the trend remains mixed and very choppy. Crude oil futures have been consolidating between $45 – $55 for the last three months after falling out of bed from around $90 a barrel to around $45 and that doesn’t surprise me as we could see sideways action for several more months to come so be patient and look at another market that’s currently trending.

If you take a look at the daily chart there’s a possible double bottom being created around the $45 level and if you are bullish this market and think prices have bottomed I would probably take a shot at today’s price level while placing my stop loss below $45 risking around $4,000 per contract plus slippage and commission, however like I stated I’m currently waiting for a true breakout to occur. Traders are awaiting tomorrow’s monthly unemployment number, however markets will be closed so the reaction will happen on Sunday night and that will send high volatility into the market as expectations are 244,000 new jobs added as a stronger economy certainly creates stronger demand for gasoline and crude oil.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid

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Gold futures in the June contract are down $11 this Thursday afternoon in New York trading at 1,197 an ounce basically unchanged for the trading week as investors are awaiting tomorrow’s monthly appointment number which should send high volatility into this market as prices have rallied about $60 over the last three weeks as profit-taking ensued in today’s trading action. Gold futures are trading above their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed as I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for better chart structure to develop as tomorrows trade should be very interesting.

Estimates are around 244,000 new jobs added so any number higher than that will probably send gold prices sharply lower as that might in turn tell the Federal Reserve that interest rates might have to be raised sooner rather than later. The next major resistance in gold prices is at 1,220 as that’s the true breakout to the upside in my opinion, however the chart structure remains poor at the current time so wait for a tighter trading range to develop allowing you to place your stop loss minimizing risk as much as possible and try to stick with trades that are trending as this market remains very choppy so avoid gold at the current time.
Trend: Mixed
Chart structure: Poor

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Silver futures in the May contract settled last Friday at 17.07 an ounce while currently trading at 16.85 on this holiday shortened week due to the Good Friday holiday tomorrow the markets will be closed finishing down around 20 cents for the trading week still hovering near a 6 week high. Silver futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as I have been sitting on the sidelines in this market as the chart structure is poor at the current time, however if you are bullish silver prices and think prices have bottomed my recommendation would be to buy at today’s price while placing your stop loss at the 10 day low which currently stands at 16.47 risking about $.40 or $400 per mini contract plus slippage and commission.

Volatility in silver and the precious metals as a whole has come back as weakness in the S&P 500 is starting to put money back into the precious metals in the short term as the U.S dollar has been consolidating their recent run up as I still see choppiness ahead in silver as I’m waiting for a better chart pattern and tighter chart structure to develop therefore allowing you to place a tighter stop loss minimizing monetary risk. TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Coffee futures in the May contract are currently trading up 300 points at 137.80 a pound basically finishing unchanged for the trading week as volatility remains high despite the fact that prices remain in an extremely tight trading range over the last four weeks between 130 – 145 as a breakout is looming in my opinion as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for something to develop.

If you have been following my previous blogs I have very few recommendations at the current time as many of the commodity markets are consolidating in the sideways pattern just like the coffee market as a breakout will not occur until prices break above 145 or below 130 as we start to enter the frost season in Brazil which can occur in May and June like it did in 1994 sending prices from 60 all the way up to around 260 in a matter of weeks.

In my opinion coffee prices are on the verge of a bottoming pattern and we might go sideways for quite some time so keep a close eye on this market as this sleeping giant will wake up once again. Coffee prices traded as high as 230 just 6 months ago dropping dramatically as excellent weather conditions persisted throughout the growing year in Brazil but that has already been priced into the market as volatility certainly will increase. Trend: Mixed
Chart structure: Excellent


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Mike Seerys Weekly Crude Oil, Gold and Silver Market Summary

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Here's Mikes call on crude oil, gold and silver. Read more of his calls for this week by visiting here.

Crude oil futures in the May contract are down $1.50 this Friday afternoon trading at 49.70 after settling last Friday at 46.57 up over $3 dollars for the trading week as prices traded as high as 52.48 in yesterday’s trade because of the fact of a possible war developing between Saudi Arabia and Yemen sending prices sharply higher.

I was recommending a short position in crude oil getting stopped out in yesterday’s trade giving back most of the profits, however the trade was still slightly profitable but disappointing as prices rallied 4 straight trading sessions before today with a possible double bottom around the 45.00 level being created. At the current time I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for another trend to develop as a true breakout to the upside will be above 55.00 and the downside breakout won’t occur until prices break the contract low around 45.00 a barrel so keep an eye on this market as the chart structure remains outstanding.

Crude oil futures are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside, however my exit strategy is if I’m short and prices hit a two week high against me then it’s time to move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend as you must have an exit strategy as holding and never getting out of a position is extremely dangerous in my opinion as you must be nimble. At the current time I’m holding very few positions as I got stopped out of many positions in the last week so currently I’m only short sugar, lean hogs, and soybeans and I will be sitting on the sidelines waiting for new trends to develop.
Trend: Mixed
Chart structure: Excellent

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Gold futures in the April contract settled last Friday at 1,185 an ounce currently trading at 1,200 up $15 for the trading week closing higher 8 out of the last 9 trading sessions in an impressive rally which started all the way back at 1,140 peeking out in yesterday’s trade at 1,220 as Saudi Arabia is sending ground troops into the country of Yemen sending the market sharply higher as that altercation looks to stay for some time to come.

Gold futures are trading above their 20 but below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines in this market as I was recommending a short position last week getting stopped out in last Fridays trade and that’s why you must have an exit strategy as the 10 day high was 1,177 as we have rallied $43 higher from that level this week with major resistance at 1,220 which is the true breakout in my opinion, and if that level is broken I would be recommending a bullish position but at this point in time I am neutral as the chart structure is poor at the current time due to the fact of the recent run up in prices.

Gold futures have been extremely choppy over the last six months and choppy markets in my opinion are very difficult to trade successfully so at this point look for another trend that is starting to develop.
Trend: Higher
Chart structure: Poor

Silver futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 16.88 an ounce while currently trading this Friday afternoon at 17.08 up around 20 cents for the trading week hitting a four week high and now trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the upside. I was recommending a short position in silver getting stopped out last week at the 2 week high which was around 16.20 and currently I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for better chart structure to develop as the 10 day low is around 15.35 which is a $1.70 away as the risk is too high at the moment. Silver futures traded as high as 17.40 in yesterday’s trade on news that Saudi Arabia is sending ground troops into the country of Yemen as a possible war is at hand as the U.S dollar has also dropped about 4% from its contract high lending support to the precious metals as a whole. In my opinion I think you should wait for better chart structure to develop so be patient and keep an eye on this market as the trend may have turned to the upside but I will wait for a lower risk trade before entering.
Trend: Higher
Chart structure: Poor


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Mike Seerys Weekly Crude Oil, Gold and Silver Market Summary

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Here's Mikes call on crude oil, gold and silver. Read more of his calls for this week by visiting here.

Crude oil futures in the May contract are up $1.20 a barrel currently trading at 46.70 as I've been recommending a short position when prices broke out to contract lows earlier last week and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss at the 10 day high which currently stands at 52.00 risking around $7 dollars or $3,500 per mini contract plus slippage and commission as the chart structure remains poor, however it will start to tighten up on a daily basis next week.

Crude oil futures rallied today because of the fact that the U.S dollar is down 160 points pushing up many commodity prices, however as the trend follower I continue to think lower prices are ahead so make sure you place the proper amount of contracts on risking 2% of your account balance as oversupply issues are currently keeping a lid on prices.

The precious metals, grain market, stock markets, and the energy complex were all higher today as it seems to me that we had a relief rally taking place due to the fact that of the FOMC minutes which were construed bullish as interest rates are not going higher in the short term . As a trader I believe you must follow the trend and the short term trend is to the downside so don’t let a 1 or 2 day rally bother you as you must stick to the rules and that sometimes means giving back profits.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Gold futures in the April contract are higher for the 3rd consecutive trading session hitting a 2 week high as I have been recommending a short position getting stopped out in today's trade licking my wounds as I'm a little disappointed as it was all based on the FOMC minutes as they are not going to raise interest rates anytime soon pushing up many of the commodity markets especially the precious metals.

Gold futures are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average, however as an exit strategy when I'm short and prices hit a two week high it’s time to move on and sit on the sidelines as prices settled last Friday at 1,152 while currently trading at 1,187 up over $30 in an impressive week especially considering the fact that the NASDAQ 100 has crossed 5000 once again as everything is basically higher across the board this afternoon.

I've been recommending a short position from around 1,160 getting stopped out at 1,177 as it was a losing trade but nothing horrific but disappointing as always when you're on the wrong side of a trade, however I do think we will be sitting on the sidelines in this market for quite some time waiting for better chart structure to develop as I think prices will chop around trading off of the U.S dollar which has turned very volatile at the current time.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

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Silver futures in the May contract are sharply higher this Friday afternoon trading up $.75 in New York hitting a four week high as I’ve been recommending a short position in silver prices getting stopped out around the 16.20 level as prices have skyrocketed off the FOMC minutes stating that they will not raise interest rates sending many commodities sharply higher on short covering alone. Silver futures are trading above their 20 but still below their 100 day moving average as I’m now advising clients to sit on the sidelines and wait for better chart structure to develop as prices settled last Friday at 15.50 finishing up almost $1.40 for the trading week having one of its best weeks in months as the U.S dollar is down 160 points pushing up the precious metals in today’s action.

I’ve been recommending a short position from around the 15.60 level losing around $.60 on the trade or $600 per mini contract and I’m disappointed but it’s time to move on and look at another market that is currently trending as many of the commodities may have experienced a short term bounce as it looks like interest rates flat out are not going higher. The chart structure in silver at the current time is terrible as prices have skyrocketed in the last three days as volatility is high once again so look at a different market with less risk at the current time as the 15.50 breakout to the downside was false and that happens so you have to deal with it and risk as little amount of money as possible.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor


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Mike Seerys Weekly Crude Oil, Gold and Silver Market Summary

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Here's Mikes call on crude oil, gold and silver. Read more of his calls for this week by visiting here.

Crude oil futures in the April contract are trading lower for the 4th consecutive trading session hitting new contract lows at 44.98 a barrel as I’ve been recommending a short position in yesterday trade around the $48 level & if you took that trade continue place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 52.40 risking around $7 dollars or $3,500 per mini contract plus slippage and commission.

Prices in my opinion are headed sharply lower as prices are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving as prices were consolidating over the last six weeks but you’re going to have to be patient in this trade as the 10 day high will not be lowered for another five days so continue to play this to the downside taking advantage of any rallies maintaining the proper amount of contracts risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade.

The U.S dollar is sharply higher again this week pushing many of the commodity markets including the S&P 500 lower which has been very resilient until recently as there seems to be a worldwide slowdown occurring as the commodity markets all look weak so continue to trade with the trend as I don’t know how low prices can go but I do think in my opinion prices are headed lower as whenever a commodity makes a new contract low that’s not a good sign if you are in a bullish position.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Gold futures in the April contract settled in New York last Friday at $1,164 an ounce while currently trading at 1,156 down about 8 dollars for the trading week in a relatively nonvolatile trading session still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as I have been recommending a short position as of last Friday and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 1,214 risking around $2,400 per mini contract, however the chart structure will start to improve dramatically next week lowering the stop loss.

The problem with gold at current time is the fact that the U.S dollar is sharply higher this week once again continuing to put pressure on the commodity markets as I don't see that trend stopping anytime soon as the next level of support is 1,130 – 1,140 & if that level is broken you would have to think that gold prices will trade below 1,100 and if you look at platinum prices they are hitting another contract low so I think gold will catch up to platinum to the downside.

Many of the commodity markets continue to go lower as well with crude oil prices retesting contract lows once again also pressuring the precious metals as the trend is your friend and I continue to think that there is no reason to own gold at this time so continue to sell as well as maintaining the proper amount of contracts risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

Silver futures in the May contract settled last Friday at 15.80 while currently trading in New York at 15.50 down about $.30 for the trading week hitting a four month low while breaking critical support at 15.55 an ounce as I’m recommending a short position in this market & if you took this trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which was lowered to 16.58 risking around $1,100 per mini contract plus slippage and commission, however the chart structure will tighten up considerably next week.

I sound like a broken record as I’m pessimistic the entire commodity market due to the fact that the U.S dollar hit a 12 year high once again as I do think prices can retest the December 1st 2014 low of 14.70 an ounce as I see no reason to own the precious metals at this time especially with higher interest rates on the horizon and an incredibly strong U.S dollar both very pessimistic fundamental indicator towards the precious metals and silver prices as a whole.

Silver futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside and if 14.70 is broken you can see a freefall in prices possibly down around the 12.50 level in the next 6 to 8 weeks as the trend is getting stronger on a weekly basis.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving


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He's Back....Mike Seerys Weekly Crude Oil and Gold Market Summary

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Here's Mikes call on crude oil and gold. Read more of his calls for this week by visiting here.

Crude oil futures in the April contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside however I have been recommending investors to sit on the sidelines in this market as prices have been in a tight consolidation trading between $48 – $55 for the last five weeks as I’m waiting for another trend to develop.

Crude oil futures settled last Friday at 49.76 a barrel while currently trading at 49.70 basically unchanged but currently down $1.00 this Friday as the U.S dollar is up 130 points putting pressure on many of the commodity markets. At the current time there is a struggle between the bulls and bears as deflation is a worldwide concern, however the U.S monthly unemployment number came in very strong which could increase demand especially when you’re starting to enter a strong driving season which can push prices higher however sit on the sidelines and wait for a trend to occur making sure that you risk 2% of your account balance on any given trade as the chart structure currently is outstanding so a breakout is looming in my opinion.

Oil prices are consolidating over the last month or so after falling from around $90 and that is understandable as prices could go sideways for several more months but as a trader I want to follow the trend and this trend is mixed at the current time so look at other markets.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Gold futures in the April contract are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside after settling last Friday at 1,213 while trading at 1,172 down $22 this Friday afternoon as the monthly unemployment report was construed as bullish sending gold to a 9 week low.

The U.S dollar is hitting another contract high up 110 points putting pressure on the precious metals as I'm currently recommending a short position in the mini contract which is $33 for every dollar move while placing your stop above the 10 day high which currently stands 1,223 risking around 50 points or $1800 per contract plus slippage and commission.

In my opinion I believe the U.S dollar will continue its bullish trend and therefore should continue putting bearish pressure on gold and silver prices here in the short term as the next level of support is at 1,165 and if that is breached I think that we test the contract low around 1,130 so continue to play this to the downside as the chart structure will start to improve later next week tightening the stop and reducing monetary risk.

Many of the commodity and stock markets were lower today due to the fact that United States treasury bonds plummeted this afternoon sending yields higher as now the speculation is that the Federal Reserve will start to raise rates in June which is another pessimistic fundamental indicator towards gold prices.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

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Mike Seerys Weekly Crude Oil and Gold Market Summary

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Here's Mikes call on crude oil and gold. Read more of his calls for this week by visiting here.

Crude oil futures are trading above their 20 but still below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed as I have been advising clients to sit on the sidelines until volatility slows down which could take some time. Crude oil futures settled last Friday at 53.67 a barrel while currently trading around 51.20 in the April contract down around $2.50 for the trading week.

The chart structure is starting to improve as prices have been trading between 50-55 in the last 2 weeks looking to breakout soon so keep a close eye on this market as a breakout above $55 could be in the cards but be patient as the trend is still choppy with no short term trend which does not meet my criteria to enter.

The API report came out yesterday stating that we had 14 million barrels in storage versus the 3 million estimate sending prices down over $2 as the fundamentals still remain bearish as currently there is still an oversupply issue in the short term.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: OK

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Gold futures in the April contract settled last Friday at 1,227 while currently at 1,207 down about $20 for the trading week still trading below their 20 & 100 moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as prices have hit a 6 week low. I am currently sitting on the sidelines awaiting better chart structure to develop as investors continue to put money into the equity market as gold seems to be entering into a bearish trend once again in my opinion.

The next level of major support is around the 1,180 level and if that level is broken I would have think that a retest of the contract low which was hit in early November 2014 could be in the cards so keep a close eye on this trade because a trade could be coming if chart structure improves and that could happen next week.

Problems around the world seem to be out of the lime light at the current time as I don’t see any real reason to own gold as I remain bullish the S&P 500 as the U.S dollar continues to hover around 11 year highs as I think the dollar is in a secular bull market for some time to come as Europe’s economy is not as strong as the United States as that’s also a negative fundamental influence on gold prices.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Weekly Energy Futures Recap with Mike Seery

Another week of trading under our belts and that means it's time to check in with Michael Seery of Seery Futures.com to give our readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. Seery has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.....

The energy futures were higher across the board but off of session highs as the stock market is near session lows pushing several of the commodity markets lower for the trading session while crude oil finished up $1.10 at 97.85 a barrel still trading right near recent highs of the trading range but I’m becoming more bearish this sector because the longer prices stay up at these levels without moving higher improves the odd that a top might be in place.

The chart structure in crude oil is excellent at this point in time while it generally follows the S&P 500 due to the fact that the higher the stock market goes the higher the demand for gasoline in theory, however higher interest rates might be here to stay as the Federal Reserve might be running out of bullets to continue to prop up the economy. Heating oil futures for the July contract are breaking out of a 10 week consolidation moving above major resistance at 2.95 a gallon settling at 2.96 a gallon and I’m still somewhat pessimistic about heating oil as we enter the summer months demand should start to slow.

Unleaded gasoline futures which I’ve written about in many blogs and I stated that I was bullish during with the demand season which improving chart structure with prices still around 2.8950 a gallon hitting a 3 month high, however I am generally a trend follower but I still believe that crude oil is getting very toppy up at these levels and there could be a steep decline in the next couple weeks with many of the other commodity sectors across the board including the stock market which has been in a bullish run for 4 years.

The reason commodity prices are headed lower isn’t because the dollar is headed lower which generally is a bullish fundamental factor but the fact that interest rates continue to climb on a daily basis spooking investors thinking that the free money is finally ending which is a pessimistic indicator towards many commodities including the oil sector which has not been affected at this point but in my opinion could be very soon.

Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Excellant


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