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Saturday, June 15, 2013

Weekly Energy Futures Recap with Mike Seery

Another week of trading under our belts and that means it's time to check in with Michael Seery of Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. Seery has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.....

The energy futures were higher across the board but off of session highs as the stock market is near session lows pushing several of the commodity markets lower for the trading session while crude oil finished up $1.10 at 97.85 a barrel still trading right near recent highs of the trading range but I’m becoming more bearish this sector because the longer prices stay up at these levels without moving higher improves the odd that a top might be in place.

The chart structure in crude oil is excellent at this point in time while it generally follows the S&P 500 due to the fact that the higher the stock market goes the higher the demand for gasoline in theory, however higher interest rates might be here to stay as the Federal Reserve might be running out of bullets to continue to prop up the economy. Heating oil futures for the July contract are breaking out of a 10 week consolidation moving above major resistance at 2.95 a gallon settling at 2.96 a gallon and I’m still somewhat pessimistic about heating oil as we enter the summer months demand should start to slow.

Unleaded gasoline futures which I’ve written about in many blogs and I stated that I was bullish during with the demand season which improving chart structure with prices still around 2.8950 a gallon hitting a 3 month high, however I am generally a trend follower but I still believe that crude oil is getting very toppy up at these levels and there could be a steep decline in the next couple weeks with many of the other commodity sectors across the board including the stock market which has been in a bullish run for 4 years.

The reason commodity prices are headed lower isn’t because the dollar is headed lower which generally is a bullish fundamental factor but the fact that interest rates continue to climb on a daily basis spooking investors thinking that the free money is finally ending which is a pessimistic indicator towards many commodities including the oil sector which has not been affected at this point but in my opinion could be very soon.

Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Excellant

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