Friday, July 9, 2010

Commodities Commentary For Friday Evening

Crude oil closed higher on Friday as it extends this week's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.19 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August resumes last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 70.93 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 76.48. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.38. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 71.09. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 70.93.

Natural gas closed slightly higher due to short covering on Friday and consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. If August extends the aforementioned decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.808 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.640. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.808. First support is today's low crossing at 4.339. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 82.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.57 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average high crossing at 84.96. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.57. First support is today's low crossing at 83.83. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 82.15.

Gold closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1183.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1229.20 would signal that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1219.70. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1229.20. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1185.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1183.90.

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