Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Bloomberg Analysis: Crude Oil Price May Fall to $63 If Cap at "Pivot High" Holds
On Aug. 19, following a two week fall in which oil dropped 9 percent, crude rose as high as $76.47. That level, higher than the previous and following days’ closing prices, constitutes a pivot high. In the following week, crude slumped to a three month low of $70.76, confirming that the downward slope had not been broken. “Absent a close above $76.47, I think you’ll maintain the downtrend,” Barclays analyst MacNeil Curry said in a telephone interview from New York today.
Prices will first be drawn to $70.35 a barrel, the lowest point reached by the October contract during its slide in May, according to Curry. After that, it is “fairly likely” the commodity will plunge another $6 to $7 as sagging equity indexes drag other markets lower, he said. “The inter-market is not very constructive right now,” Curry said. “Equity markets remain vulnerable to further downside.”
Reporter Grant Smith can be reached at email@example.com
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