Crude oil breached 75.71 to 74.95 initially last week but that was brief. It then rebounded strongly to as high as 84.00. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week and further rebound might be seen to 84.77 and above. But there is no change in the bearish view that decline from 114.83 is not finished. Hence, we'd expect upside to be limited well below 90.52 key resistance and bring another fall. Below 79.08 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Break of 74.95 will target 70 psychological level.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 33.2 is treated as the second leg of consolidation pattern from 147.24 and should have finished at 114.83 already. Current decline should target next key cluster support at 64.23 (61.8% retracement of 33.2 to 114.83 at 64.38) next. Sustained break will pave the way to retest 33.2 low. On the upside, break of 90.52 resistance is needed to invalidate this view or we'll stay bearish in crude oil now.
In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2, second wave might be finished. Upon confirmation of medium term reversal, the third wave of the pattern should have started for a retest on 33.2 low.
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