Crude oil dropped to as low as 88.95 last week before recovering. Some consolidations could be seen initially this week but another fall will remain mildly in favor as long as 94.08 holds. Current fall from 100.42 would extend to 61.8% retracement of 77.28 to 100.42 at 86.12 and possibly below. Though, we'd expect strong support ahead of 77.28 to contain downside. Meanwhile, break of 94.08 will flip bias to the upside for a test on 100.42 resistance. After all, we'd expect another rise to 100.55 after completing the current consolidative price actions.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 114.83 are a triangle consolidation pattern. Fall from 100.42 is likely the fifth and the last leg of such consolidation. Having said that, downside should be contained above 77.28 and bring an upside breakout eventually. Break of 110.55 will strongly suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for above 114.83.
In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts
Natural gas finally took out 3.277 resistance last week and the development confirmed that whole rebound from 1.902 has resumed. More importantly, the close above 3.255 has larger bullish implication. Further rally is now expected to target medium term channel resistance next (now at around 4.0.). On the downside, break of 55 days EMA (now at 2.91) is needed to signal near term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, the strong break of 55 weeks EMA, as well as the break of 3.255 support turned resistance indicates that medium term decline from 6.108 is completed at 1.902 already. It's bit early to confirm but bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD suggests that the down trend from 13.694 (2008 high) is possibly over too. Sustained break of the channel resistance (now at around 4.0) will set the stage for a test on 4.983 key resistance next. Meanwhile, break of 2.575 support will argue that the rebound from 1.902 is over and the medium larger down trend is still in progress for a new low.
In the longer term picture, decisive break of 3.255 resistance will be an important signal of long term bottoming reversal and could at least give a push to 4.983/6.108 resistance zone.
Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts
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Gold consolidated below 1790 resistance last week. Despite a rally attempt, gold is still limited below this level. More sideway trading might be seen. But note that as long as 1720 minor support holds, current rise is still expected to continue. Decisive break of 1792.7/1804.4 resistance zone will have larger bullish implication and would pave the way to 1923.7 historical high. Though, break of 1720 will indicate near term reversal and will turn outlook bearish for 1674/1 support first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1923.7 high are viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that such consolidation is finished, and more range trading could be seen. In any case, downside of any falling leg should be contained by 1478.3/1577.4 support zone and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 1792.7/1804.4 resistance zone will argue that the long term uptrend is possibly resuming for a new high above 1923.7.
In the long term picture, with 1478.3 support intact, there is no change in the long term bullish outlook in gold. While some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psychological level in the long run
Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts
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