Another Layer of Bureaucracy for Oil and Gas Exploration in the US?

On May 11, 2012, the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) published proposed regulations governing "Oil and Gas; Well Stimulation, Including Hydraulic Fracturing, on Federal and Indian Lands." BLM is a latecomer to this party. Its belated meddling lacks practical or economic justification. Instead, the proposed BLM rule would drive oil and gas developers off federal and tribal lands. Complying with the rules is too complicated and costly. Producers can realize a much faster and much better return on their capital investment by developing oil and gas reserves on adjoining private lands.

Federal and tribal lands hold large reserves of oil and natural gas. At a time when the United States desperately needs to move toward, not away from, energy independence, it makes no sense to let bureaucratic meddling effectively place these valuable domestic reserves out of reach. The problems with BLM's approach are myriad. BLM Misses the Mark

First, a central, federal, "one size fits all" approach does not work. The reserves that the oil and gas industry wants to access using hydraulic fracturing occur in areas with different geographic, topographic, hydrological, population, precipitation and umpteen other characteristics. The oil and gas deposits are found at different depths; the water table is at different depths. The surface and subsurface vary dramatically, ranging from the Marcellus Shale Formation in the Northeast to the San Juan Basin in the Southwest. States and tribes have long ago stepped up to the plate with sensible regulations suitable to their individual conditions. They are way ahead of BLM.

Second, even if states and tribes did not already have this under control, BLM's proposed regulations are inappropriate. The BLM regs are based on inaccurate assumptions, flawed economics and a perceived but actually nonexistent need.....

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The Election Cycle – What to Expect in Stocks & Bond Prices

By: Chris Vermeulen of The Gold & Oil Guy.com.......

It is that time in the presidential cycle that gets everyone emotional and concerned with the future outlook of the United States. While everyone has their opinion on whom they think is best for America, I promised myself a long time ago to keep my thoughts to myself for two key reasons. ONE: only 50% of Americans will agree with me J, and TWO: I am Canadian so I do not experience what Americans go through on a daily basis.

My thinking is if Obama wins then we will see Quantitative Easing continue. And with the recent positive economic numbers on Friday it should give some confidence to investors that things are SLOWLY stabilizing (Bullish for Stocks). But, if Romney wins then we could see Quantitative Easing be cut or eliminated which is obviously bad for equities.

So, let’s just jump into the charts of what I feel will unfold in the next few days and months.

Using the season chart of the four year election cycle we can see what the Dow Jones Index has done in past election periods. Obviously every market environment is drastically different in each situation but overall we see stronger stock price. This is naturally a very emotional time for investors but once the election is finished most individuals become more confident simply because there is a leader that has four years to make things better and there is nothing they can do about it now and the campaigning and debating is over.



DIA – Dow Jones Industrial Average – Daily Chart:

Looking at the chart of Dow DIA Index fund you can see a 5-6 month cycle in the market which has a positive skew. Just so you understand what a positive skew is I will explain.

Positive Skew is when the market is trending up making a series of higher highs and higher lows. Because there are naturally more buyers during a bull market each cycle upswing lasts longer then when the cycle down downswing. So you get longer rallies which sends your secondary indicators (stochastics, volatility, put/call ratios, advance decline line etc…) in the overbought levels for extended periods of time. Those trying to pick a top continually get their head handed to them. The focus must be on buying the pullbacks. Keep in mind volatility is higher which meaning risk per trade is higher. Overall in the long run you stand a much higher chance of making money trading with the trend than trying counter trend trades (picking a top).

So as you can see below it looks like the stock market will be trying to put in the bottom over the next week or two which falls in line with our election cycle. It is very important to know that during intermediate cycle lows is where some of the biggest drops take place. These sharp drops are what is needed to cleanse the market one last time to shake as many traders with tight stops out of the market before it reverses and starts the next rally. I would like to see a 1-3 day market sell off as that would be the signature bottoming pattern I like to buy.



Bond Prices – Moving Against the Norm…..

Bond investors are some of the most conservative people in the market. They do not like to take risks so they dump their money into bonds to make a tiny profit in exchange for low risk (volatility). The nature of these investors put more money into bonds as we enter the election because they are nervous about not knowing who will be in control of the country.

After the election finished some money flows out of bonds and into stocks because there is now a president and direction for the country. Generally come the new year investors move to bonds as the safe haven as they try to figure out what their game plan is for new year.

So looking forward to this week and the next 2 months I would not be surprised to see bond prices rise or trade sideways while stocks move higher. This analysis is based on Obama winning. If Romney wins then I feel bonds will rally much more and stocks could sell off.



TLT Bond Exchange Traded Fund – Daily Chart:

Here is a chart of 20+ year bonds showing a possible reversal to the upside that could trigger as soon as next week. This chart is forward looking 1 – 2 weeks. Overall the trend remains down but if Romney wins I feel bonds breakout above the red resistance levels and trigger a new uptrend.



Election Year Trading Cycle Conclusion:

Next week is going to be very interesting to watch unfold. I generally do not like to trade or invest before news of this magnitude so trade smaller sizes if you do as price action could be wild.

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Chris Vermeulen

EIA Weekly Natural Gas Report

Natural gas prices flattened out this week (Wednesday to Wednesday) following last week’s increases. The Henry Hub closed at $3.50 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) yesterday, up 7 cents per MMBtu for the week, after increasing last week by 19 cents per MMBtu. Prices mostly rose across the board, with the exception of general declines in the Rocky Mountain region and some declines in California.

The December 2012 New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) decreased, from $3.776 per MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.692 per MMBtu yesterday. The November contract expired on October 29 at $3.471 per MMBtu.

Working natural gas in storage increased last week to 3,908 Bcf as of Friday, October 26, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR). An implied storage increase of 65 Bcf for the week moved storage levels 136 Bcf above year-ago levels.

The Baker Hughes Incorporated natural gas rotary rig count fell by 11 to 416 active units on the week ending October 26. The oil-directed rig count decreased by 2 to 1,408 units.

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ONG: Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Weekly Technical Outlook for Saturday Nov. 3rd

Crude oil dropped further last week and breached mentioned 61.8% retracement of 77.28 to 100.42 at 86.12 as expected. Deeper decline is still in favor in near term. But as noted before, we'd expect strong support ahead of 77.28 support and bring rebound. So focus will be on reversal sign as the current decline extends. On the upside, above 87.42 resistance will indicate short term reversal and will turn bias back to the upside for 93.66 resistance and above first.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 114.83 are a triangle consolidation pattern. Fall from 100.42 is likely the fifth and the last leg of such consolidation. Having said that, downside should be contained above 77.28 and bring an upside breakout eventually. Break of 110.55 will strongly suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for above 114.83.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

Near term outlook in natural gas stays bullish as long as 3.355 support holds even though upside momentum is not too convincing. Current rally from 2.575 should extend further towards medium term channel resistance next (now at around 3.92). Break will target 4.0 psychological level. However, considering that it's near to important resistance level, break of 3.355 will indicate near term topping and would bring deeper pull back towards 55 days EMA (now at 3.164).

In the bigger picture, recent developments argued that medium term decline from 6.108 is completed at 1.902 already. It's bit early to confirm but bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD suggests that the down trend from 13.694 (2008 high) is possibly over too. Sustained break of the channel resistance (now at around 3.92) will set the stage for a test on 4.983 key resistance next. Meanwhile, break of 2.575 support will argue that the rebound from 1.902 is over and the medium larger down trend is still in progress for a new low.

In the longer term picture, decisive break of 3.255 resistance will be an important signal of long term bottoming reversal and could at least give a push to 4.983/6.108 resistance zone.

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

Gold's fall from 1798.1 continued last week and broke mentioned 38.2% retracement of 1526.7 to 1798.1 at 1694.4 as expected. Near term outlook stays bearish as long as 1727.5 resistance holds. Current decline should target 61.8% retracement at 1630.4 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1923.7 high are viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that such consolidation is finished, and more range trading could be seen. In any case, downside of any falling leg should be contained by 1478.3/1577.4 support zone and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 1792.7/1804.4 resistance zone will argue that the long term up trend is possibly resuming for a new high above 1923.7.

In the long term picture, with 1478.3 support intact, there is no change in the long term bullish outlook in gold. While some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psychological level in the long run

Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

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Stocks Overbought or Oversold? Where to Put Your Stops

We did see a nice pop this morning breaking some previous pivot highs from last week and volume looks strong. Long story short… stocks are overbought here very similar to the past two highs as seen in the chart below. The big question from here is what to do now? Well, I wanna see some bullish patterns and volume over the next 12-48 hours if we are going to be looking to get long for an intermediate rally that lasts several weeks taking the indexes to new highs.

Take a look at the 10 minute intraday chart of the past fiveOPEN trading sessions (Wed, Thurs, Fri, Wed, Today) as notice how choppy price has been…. It’s shaking traders up who do not know how to adjust their trading strategy during rising volatility and mixed market cycles. This is something I will be teaching in the near future using my own eSignal trading indicators and Signals as it has been CRUCIAL in the past 3 year to profit from and minimize losses.



Daily Chart of my Cycles & Sentiment Indicator of the SPY:




Precious metals are not participating today and even gold stocks are trading lower… Seems people are really focused on pure risk on (equities) today.

Yesterday we saw utilities rally as fear worked its way into the market. Well today utilities (XLU) is trading lower. Interesting how the market move and why I love them so much…

Last week I mention how RIMM looked ready for a major breakout and rally. This week it has jumped over 12% which is exciting. The next to pop looks like KOL coal ETF.

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Chris Vermeulen



Chris Vermeulen is Founder of the popular trading analysis website The Gold & Oil Guy.com. There he shares his highly successful, low risk trade ideas. Since 2001 Chris has been a leader in teaching others to skillfully trade Currencies, Stock Indices, Bonds, Metals, Energies, Commodities, and Exchange Traded Funds.

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WTI Crude Oil & Oil Stocks Seasonality & Year-End Outlook

By: Chris Vermeulen – The Gold & Oil Guy.com.....

Crude oil has had some large price swings this year and another one may be on its way. This report shows the seasonality of crude oil along with where oil is trading and what the oil service stocks are telling us is likely to happen going into year end.

Since WTI Crude Oil topped out in September at the $100 resistance level (Century Number) many traders are looking for a bounce or bottom to form in the next week. Historical charts show that on average the price of oil falls during November and the first half of December.

The charts of oil and oil stocks shown below have formed patterns on both time frames (weekly & daily) that lower prices are to be expected. If you did not read my Gold Seasonality Report I just posted be sure to review it here: Gold Seasonal Report


  
WTI Crude Oil Weekly Chart:
Here you can see that price tends to fall going into Christmas and rallies during the last week of trading. This price action falls in line with Dimitri Specks seasonal chart providing us with insight as to what we should expect. Later this week I will finish my report on the Election Cycle Seasonality report which shows weakness in the market during Oct & Nov when a president is up for re-election.



Oil Services Stocks – Weekly Chart: 
If you follow oil closely then you know likely know already that oil related stocks can lead the price of oil by a couple weeks. What this means is that if big money is flowing into oil stocks (bullish price patterns with strong volume), then you should expect the price of crude oil to rise in the coming days. That said, if money is flowing OUT of oils stocks then lower or sideways oil price should be expected.

The weekly chart oil stocks show a very large bearish head & shoulders pattern. While I do not think the neckline will be broken it is very possible.

One of the most important pieces of data on the chart is the VOLUME. Notice the lack of it… Volume tells us how much interest and power is behind chart patterns and declining volume clearly tells us these investments are out of favor currently and that big money is not moving into them.



Oil Services Stocks – DAILY Chart: 
Zooming into the daily chart of the oil service stocks we can see there is yet another bearish pattern unfolding. Another head & shoulders pattern which looks as though it is just starting to breakdown as of this writing. Next support level is $35-36.



WTI Crude Oil and Oil Service Stocks Trading Conclusion:
Looking forward 1-2 months (November – December) taking the seasonal price swings in oil, re-election cycle seasonality and price action of oil stocks I feel oil will trade sideways or down from here. With that being said, expect crude oil to rally during the last week of the year. I hope this provides some useful info for your trading!

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Chris Vermeulen is Founder of the popular trading analysis website The Gold & Oil Guy.com. There he shares his highly successful, low risk trade ideas. Since 2001 Chris has been a leader in teaching others to skillfully trade Currencies, Stock Indices, Bonds, Metals, Energies, Commodities, and Exchange Traded Funds.

Is Santa Coming Early for Gold & Gold Mining Stocks?

By: Chris Vermeulen at The Gold & Oil Guy.com

If you own physical gold, gold mining stocks or plan on buying anything related to precious metals before year end, you are likely going to get excited because of what my analysis and outlook shows.

Since gold topped abruptly a year ago (Sept 2011) with a massive wave of selling which sent the price of gold from $1920 down to $1535, technical analysts knew that type of damage which had be done to the chart pattern could take a year or more to stabilize before gold would be able to continue higher.

Fast forwarding twelve months to today (Oct 2012). You can see that gold looks to have stabilized and is building a basing pattern (launch pad) for another major rally. The charts illustrated below show my big picture analysis, thoughts and investment idea.

Weekly Spot Gold Chart:
The weekly chart can be a very powerful tool for understanding the overall trend. This chart clearly shows the last major correction and basing pattern in gold back in 2008 – 2009. Right now gold looks to be forming a very similar pattern.

Keep in mind this is a weekly chart and if you compare the 2009 basing pattern to where we are today I still feel it could take 3 – 6 months before gold truly breaks out to the upside and kicks into high gear. The point of this chart is to provide a rough guide for what to expect in the coming weeks and months.




Weekly Chart of Junior Gold Miner Stocks:
If you follow gold closely then you likely already know junior gold mining stocks can lead the price of gold up to two weeks. Meaning gold mining stocks which you can track by looking at GDX and GDXJ exchange traded funds will form strong bullish chart patterns and generally start moving up in price before physical gold.

The chart below shows the junior gold miner ETF with a VERY BULLISH chart and volume pattern. Remember that gold stocks are a leveraged play on gold in most cases. For example, if gold moves up 1% we typically see GDX and GDXJ move 2-4%. Because they act as a leveraged play on physical gold smart money and big institutions start accumulating these investments in anticipation of gold rising.

GDXJ has formed a tight bull flag and the volume levels confirm there is big money moving into these investments. The first price target on GDXJ using technical analysis for a measured move points to the $32 area. Looking forward twelve months with gold trading above $2000 we could see this fund more than double in value.

Bonus: while most traders focus on GDX gold miner fund, I prefer the GDXJ fund because its almost identical in price performance BUT it pays you a 5% dividend....




Gold’s Seasonality: 
It’s that time of year again where gold tends to move higher. Below you can see where we are and what the price of gold typically does in November.




Gold Investing & Trading Conclusion:
Looking forward one month (November) and factoring in the recent pullback in gold to known support levels along with strong buying of junior gold mining stocks, I feel gold will take another run at the $1800 level and for GDXJ to test its previous higher of $25.50 at minimum. If both those levels get taken out then a massive bull market for precious metals could be triggered. Only time will tell.

Get my Daily Trading Analysis & Trade Setups at The Gold & Oil Guy.com

Chris Vermeulen

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Cold Snap Expected to Boost Heating Demand....Natural Gas Prices Jump to 11 Month High

Benchmark U.S. natural gas prices rose sharply over the past week, touching the highest levels in nearly 11 months, on expectations colder weather will stoke heating demand, the Energy Information Administration said.

Henry Hub gas as of October 24 was $3.43 per million British thermal units, up 19 cents from a week earlier. Prices at many trading points rose on "news of a coming cold snap," the EIA said. On October 22, Henry Hub gas hit $3.49, the highest since late November.

In NYMEX futures trading October 25, November gas fell 1.6 cents to $3.434, down 5.1% from $3.617 at the end of last week and the lowest settlement in nearly three weeks.

Gas prices were up even as above average temperatures in much of the U.S. tempered consumption. During the week ended October 24, total U.S. gas demand fell 2.9% from the previous week, led by a drop of 4.8% in residential and commercial use, with temperatures averaging about 1 degree Fahrenheit above normal.

Working natural gas in underground storage increased to 3.843 trillion cubic feet as of October 19, an implied net injection of 67 billion cubic feet from the previous week, 4.1% over year ago levels and 7% over the five-year average for that date.

Read the full report

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Commodities Next Week: Hurricane Sandy & Gas Prices

CNBC's Bertha Coombs discusses Friday's activity in the commodities markets and looks ahead to where oil and precious metals are likely headed next week.



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