Our good friend and trading partner Chris Vermeulen has put together an article detailing his classic economic theory that dissects the economic cycle into four distinct stages..... expansion, trough, decline and recovery. And he explains in detail why a stock is no different, and proceeds through these cycles.
Knowing this information is crucial to survival as this cycle happens on all time
frames (1 minute chart all the way up to yearly charts). Harnessing this information for trade selection and timing greatly reduces the amount of trades you take, while focusing only on new leaders which have massive upside potential.
So take a few minutes and click here to read Markets are Cyclical in Nature....Make sure you know these "Four Stages of Stocks"
Friday, November 23, 2012
Thursday, November 22, 2012
Natural Gas Trade Idea....Buying in the Trenches Pays Off
Recently we wrote about Natural Gas ETF UGAZ on the ATP Free Blog site as a sample of buying the dip or using the “cup with handle” dip buying for profits. Our November 11th article discussed waiting for a pullback to the 30-31 ranges on UGAZ and then going long for a reversal.
Within 48 hours the dip came into the buy range, and within a few days UGAZ ran to the $38 range for as much as a 24% reversal trade gain. Even now some 9 days later UGAZ trades around $36 per share for nice gains.
Another sample we had for subscribers was on November 7th in RIMM stock. We advised waiting for a pullback from 9.15 ranges to the 8.50-8.70 ranges. When the pullback came this is what we sent to subscribers:
ATP Active Trade Alert
RIMM- 8.64 has fallen as projected in to the 8.50-8.75 swing entry buy ranges.
This is an active trade meaning 1-5 days likely and a stop should be placed at 4-6% below your entry and NO LOWER than 8.00 for aggressive partners who take the trade.
Now on November 20th, about two weeks later, RIMM is trading near $10.00 per share. The stock fell to 8.14 during the market correction which was above the $8.00 stop and above a 6% stop loss range from entry. Partners who remained long would now be sitting on gains of 14%.
Consider joining our Swing Trading service we call Active Trading Partners and get education, advice, and on going daily updates. You will also receive our Market Trend Forecast service which covers Gold, Silver, and the SP 500 short and intermediate forecasts.
Go to ActiveTradingPartners.com and subscribe by using coupon code AD499ATP in the coupon code field at the bottom of the sign up form. Sign up for quarterly and the discount will be applied at checkout, and you will get The Market Trend Forecast for free as well.
Within 48 hours the dip came into the buy range, and within a few days UGAZ ran to the $38 range for as much as a 24% reversal trade gain. Even now some 9 days later UGAZ trades around $36 per share for nice gains.
Another sample we had for subscribers was on November 7th in RIMM stock. We advised waiting for a pullback from 9.15 ranges to the 8.50-8.70 ranges. When the pullback came this is what we sent to subscribers:
ATP Active Trade Alert
RIMM- 8.64 has fallen as projected in to the 8.50-8.75 swing entry buy ranges.
This is an active trade meaning 1-5 days likely and a stop should be placed at 4-6% below your entry and NO LOWER than 8.00 for aggressive partners who take the trade.
Now on November 20th, about two weeks later, RIMM is trading near $10.00 per share. The stock fell to 8.14 during the market correction which was above the $8.00 stop and above a 6% stop loss range from entry. Partners who remained long would now be sitting on gains of 14%.
Consider joining our Swing Trading service we call Active Trading Partners and get education, advice, and on going daily updates. You will also receive our Market Trend Forecast service which covers Gold, Silver, and the SP 500 short and intermediate forecasts.
Go to ActiveTradingPartners.com and subscribe by using coupon code AD499ATP in the coupon code field at the bottom of the sign up form. Sign up for quarterly and the discount will be applied at checkout, and you will get The Market Trend Forecast for free as well.
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
Market at Risk of One More Leg Down in November
There is nobody better in the industry at predicting market sentiment then David Banister. And he was kind enough to share a call on the overall market before the holiday weekend. Here's why Banister thinks the bulls are in for another punch in the gut before the end of the year.....
The SP 500 declined a perfect 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the summer rally from the 1267 lows to the 1474 highs. In our work we examine human behavioral patterns, sentiment, and Elliott Wave patterns to help with clues on market direction. To be sure, there is no such thing as a perfect technical analysis methodology, so we do our best to mix up a home cooked recipe for assistance in getting as close as we can to calling the pivots up and down.
In the near term, we notice the market has rallied out about 45 points off the 1344 pivot lows last week to around 1390 today. This retracement marks a normal 38.2% Fibonacci recovery of the most recent wave 3 decline to 1344. Typically, this is a wave 4 mini-bullish pattern as washout lows get bought and then shorts cover fueling the rally a bit higher. However, this is often when another sledgehammer comes out of left field and knocks the market down in what we would call a “Wave 5” decline to new lows on the downtrend.
Investors should watch both the 20 day moving average which is declining and around 1392 or so, and the 1388-1392 38% Fibonacci retracement areas for resistance. Only a strong close over 1392 can eliminate the potential for one more leg down to the 1316 areas on the SP 500 before the month of November comes to a close. With that said, we expect a rally in December for the markets and hope to see this barrier taken out soon, but would advise traders to tread with caution until such time.
Click here to get Banisters calls in advance!
Stunning Accuracy of key tops and bottoms, rallies and corrections in silver, gold and the SP 500 with 3-5 weekly updates. Includes regular daily forecast updates on the markets and precious metals that are outside the box.
You can also get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
The SP 500 declined a perfect 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the summer rally from the 1267 lows to the 1474 highs. In our work we examine human behavioral patterns, sentiment, and Elliott Wave patterns to help with clues on market direction. To be sure, there is no such thing as a perfect technical analysis methodology, so we do our best to mix up a home cooked recipe for assistance in getting as close as we can to calling the pivots up and down.
In the near term, we notice the market has rallied out about 45 points off the 1344 pivot lows last week to around 1390 today. This retracement marks a normal 38.2% Fibonacci recovery of the most recent wave 3 decline to 1344. Typically, this is a wave 4 mini-bullish pattern as washout lows get bought and then shorts cover fueling the rally a bit higher. However, this is often when another sledgehammer comes out of left field and knocks the market down in what we would call a “Wave 5” decline to new lows on the downtrend.
Investors should watch both the 20 day moving average which is declining and around 1392 or so, and the 1388-1392 38% Fibonacci retracement areas for resistance. Only a strong close over 1392 can eliminate the potential for one more leg down to the 1316 areas on the SP 500 before the month of November comes to a close. With that said, we expect a rally in December for the markets and hope to see this barrier taken out soon, but would advise traders to tread with caution until such time.
Click here to get Banisters calls in advance!
Stunning Accuracy of key tops and bottoms, rallies and corrections in silver, gold and the SP 500 with 3-5 weekly updates. Includes regular daily forecast updates on the markets and precious metals that are outside the box.
You can also get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
Keep Your Eye On Trends & Reversals..... SPY, RIMM, KOL
Today our trading partner Chris Vermeulen gives us some trades to keep an eye on....
The equities market technically still has another day of positive momentum behind it and with a short holiday week higher prices are favored.
This morning in the video I mentioned how oil continues to look untradible because of the sharp news related swings and lack of clear chart patterns. Yesterday it rallied over 2% and today is back down 2%.… Steer clear of this beast…
SP500 (broad market) continues to grind sideways/higher today. Volume is very light which bodes well for lower prices in the coming days. I would love to see a Pop-N-Drop tomorrow which is when the index gaps higher at the open into a resistance zone at which point we would be looking to get short (buy the SDS).
Research In Motion shares hit our first resistance level after being upgraded this morning…. Buy the rumor sell the news…? If you are long taking some money off the table here is smart play and to move your stop to break even or better.
Coal sector is looking tasty today and we may take a long position in KOL, but I will update if I do so.
Chris Vermeulen
Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
The equities market technically still has another day of positive momentum behind it and with a short holiday week higher prices are favored.
This morning in the video I mentioned how oil continues to look untradible because of the sharp news related swings and lack of clear chart patterns. Yesterday it rallied over 2% and today is back down 2%.… Steer clear of this beast…
SP500 (broad market) continues to grind sideways/higher today. Volume is very light which bodes well for lower prices in the coming days. I would love to see a Pop-N-Drop tomorrow which is when the index gaps higher at the open into a resistance zone at which point we would be looking to get short (buy the SDS).
Research In Motion shares hit our first resistance level after being upgraded this morning…. Buy the rumor sell the news…? If you are long taking some money off the table here is smart play and to move your stop to break even or better.
Coal sector is looking tasty today and we may take a long position in KOL, but I will update if I do so.
Chris Vermeulen
Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
Monday, November 19, 2012
Did Speculators Bail Too Soon on Natural Gas?
Last Wednesday, Thursday and Friday spot CME natural gas futures tested the 2011-2012 Fibonacci 62% retracement at 3.806 (continuous contract), and each time the market closed its session below 3.800.
The bull’s latest rallying cry is last Thursday’s weekly storage update in which the EIA reported the first delivery of gas for the winter. However, as noted in the The Schork Report on Friday, a delivery at this point of the season is not unprecedented.
Be that as it may, after natural gas prices troughed in late August and peaked in the middle of October, open interest for the CME futures had declined by around 5%. Thus, the market has set ammo aside that can be (and perhaps already is) employed to push the market higher.
From the perspective of the term structure, the contango on the balance of winter strip to next summer narrowed from minus 0.111/Dth to minus 0.060/Dth last week. What’s more, as illustrated in today’s issue of the The Schork Report, weather for two-thirds of the country favor the bulls through the end of this month.
Did Speculators bail too soon on natural gas?
Per Friday’s CFTC report, the futures position in CME gas for producers rose by 5.4% to 40,101 net shorts. Over the last two months the short position held by producers has doubled. On the other side of the ring, the futures position in CME gas for speculators narrowed for a fourth straight week. As of last Tuesday, money manager’s length fell by 5% or 5,999 contracts, while their shorts dropped by 2½% or 3,936 contracts. As a result, their net position in the market has morphed from 43,045 longs (which was their 11th longest position recorded since the CFTC began disaggregating the data in 2006) to 2,583 shorts.
As far as this week’s technicals on the CME go, bids through last week's 3.830 high print clear a path towards $4 and our 4.005 weekly inflection point. Above here we will look for momentum towards our 4.220 upper limit. On the other hand, offers through last week's 3.650 midpoint alerts to follow through weakness towards our 3.575 lower inflection point. Offers below here clear a path towards our 3.360 weekly limit.
To receive a complimentary copy of today’s FULL research note, request a complimentary trial at www.SchorkReport.com. Please put CME in the source code field.
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Sunday, November 18, 2012
Transocean Releases Fleet Update Summary
Estimated 2012 out of service time for continuing operations increased by a net 25 days; 2013 out of service time decreased by a net 39 days. Estimated out of service time on rigs classified as discontinued operations increased by a net 93 days for 2012 and decreased by a net five days for 2013. The net increase in out of service time for discontinued operations for 2012 and 2013 includes 86 days to complete repairs on the GSF Key Hawaii.
Click here for other highlights from the report
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Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Weekly Technical Outlook for Sunday Nov. 18th
Time to check in with the staff at ONG and get their call for crude oil, natural gas and gold as we get ready to trade the shortened holiday week.....
Crude oil stayed in sideways trading above 84.05 last week and outlook remains unchanged. More consolidations would be seen in near term. But note that it's still staying well inside near term falling channel. And after all, as long as 89.22 minor resistance holds, deeper decline is still in favor. Below 84.05 will target 80 psychological level next. Though, we'd expect strong support ahead of 77.28 and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 89.22 should indicate short term reversal and target 93.66 resistance and above.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 114.83 are a triangle consolidation pattern. Fall from 100.42 is likely the fifth and the last leg of such consolidation. Having said that, downside should be contained above 77.28 and bring an upside breakout eventually. Break of 110.55 will strongly suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for above 114.83.
In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts
No change in the natural gas outlook. As long as 3.355 support holds, further rally is still expected. Rise fro 2.575 would extend to medium term channel resistance next (now at around 3.86). Break will target 4.0 psychological level. However, considering that it's near to important resistance level, break of 3.355 will indicate near term topping and would bring deeper pull back towards 55 days EMA (now at 3.327).
In the bigger picture, recent developments argued that medium term decline from 6.108 is completed at 1.902 already. It's bit early to confirm but bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD suggests that the down trend from 13.694 (2008 high) is possibly over too. Sustained break of the channel resistance (now at around 3.88) will set the stage for a test on 4.983 key resistance next. Meanwhile, break of 2.575 support will argue that the rebound from 1.902 is over and the medium larger down trend is still in progress for a new low.
In the longer term picture, decisive break of 3.255 resistance will be an important signal of long term bottoming reversal and could at least give a push to 4.983/6.108 resistance zone.
Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts
Gold lost momentum after hitting 1739.4 and spiraled lower from there. Initial bias is neutral this week for some more sideway trading. But another rise remain in favor as long as 1703.0 minor support holds. Above 1739.4 will extend the rebound from 1672.5. But we might see strong resistance ahead of 1798.1 high and bring another decline. Meanwhile, below 1703 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 50% retracement of 1526.7 to 1798.1 at 1662.4 and below.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1923.7 high are viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that such consolidation is finished, and more range trading could be seen. In any case, downside of any falling leg should be contained by 1478.3/1577.4 support zone and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 1792.7/1804.4 resistance zone will argue that the long term up trend is possibly resuming for a new high above 1923.7.
In the long term picture, with 1478.3 support intact, there is no change in the long term bullish outlook in gold. While some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psychological level in the long run
Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts
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Crude oil stayed in sideways trading above 84.05 last week and outlook remains unchanged. More consolidations would be seen in near term. But note that it's still staying well inside near term falling channel. And after all, as long as 89.22 minor resistance holds, deeper decline is still in favor. Below 84.05 will target 80 psychological level next. Though, we'd expect strong support ahead of 77.28 and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 89.22 should indicate short term reversal and target 93.66 resistance and above.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 114.83 are a triangle consolidation pattern. Fall from 100.42 is likely the fifth and the last leg of such consolidation. Having said that, downside should be contained above 77.28 and bring an upside breakout eventually. Break of 110.55 will strongly suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for above 114.83.
In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts
No change in the natural gas outlook. As long as 3.355 support holds, further rally is still expected. Rise fro 2.575 would extend to medium term channel resistance next (now at around 3.86). Break will target 4.0 psychological level. However, considering that it's near to important resistance level, break of 3.355 will indicate near term topping and would bring deeper pull back towards 55 days EMA (now at 3.327).
In the bigger picture, recent developments argued that medium term decline from 6.108 is completed at 1.902 already. It's bit early to confirm but bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD suggests that the down trend from 13.694 (2008 high) is possibly over too. Sustained break of the channel resistance (now at around 3.88) will set the stage for a test on 4.983 key resistance next. Meanwhile, break of 2.575 support will argue that the rebound from 1.902 is over and the medium larger down trend is still in progress for a new low.
In the longer term picture, decisive break of 3.255 resistance will be an important signal of long term bottoming reversal and could at least give a push to 4.983/6.108 resistance zone.
Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts
Gold lost momentum after hitting 1739.4 and spiraled lower from there. Initial bias is neutral this week for some more sideway trading. But another rise remain in favor as long as 1703.0 minor support holds. Above 1739.4 will extend the rebound from 1672.5. But we might see strong resistance ahead of 1798.1 high and bring another decline. Meanwhile, below 1703 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 50% retracement of 1526.7 to 1798.1 at 1662.4 and below.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1923.7 high are viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that such consolidation is finished, and more range trading could be seen. In any case, downside of any falling leg should be contained by 1478.3/1577.4 support zone and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 1792.7/1804.4 resistance zone will argue that the long term up trend is possibly resuming for a new high above 1923.7.
In the long term picture, with 1478.3 support intact, there is no change in the long term bullish outlook in gold. While some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psychological level in the long run
Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts
Get our free workshop video: Advanced Trading Applications of Candlestick Charting
Free Workshop Video: Advanced Trading Applications of Candlestick Charting
Candlesticks, used by many....truly understood by few. As a special treat to Stock Market Club readers, Gary Wagner is offering you an in depth look into candlestick charting. Join co-founder of Wagner Financial Group. and acclaimed author as he walks you through set ups in ways you can take your candlestick charting to a new level.
In this video workshop you'll discover the crucial chart patterns that candlesticks reveal - how to interpret them and how to use them to pinpoint market turns. You'll also learn how to use candlesticks in combination with familiar technical indicators like Stochastics, %R, Relative Strength Index and Moving Averages to create a dynamic, synergistic and extremely successful trading system.
Click here to watch Advanced Trading Applications of Candlestick Charting
In this video workshop you'll discover the crucial chart patterns that candlesticks reveal - how to interpret them and how to use them to pinpoint market turns. You'll also learn how to use candlesticks in combination with familiar technical indicators like Stochastics, %R, Relative Strength Index and Moving Averages to create a dynamic, synergistic and extremely successful trading system.
Click here to watch Advanced Trading Applications of Candlestick Charting
Thursday, November 15, 2012
EIA Weekly Natural Gas Update
* Natural gas prices generally registered overall increases for the report week (Wednesday to Wednesday) at many of the country’s trading locations. The Henry Hub price dipped during the early portion of the reporting period before rebounding to close at $3.66 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) yesterday (up 19 cents per MMBtu for the week).
* The natural gas futures market trended higher over most of the week. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the December 2012 natural gas contract gained 18.2 cents per MMBtu to close at $3.760 per MMBtu yesterday.
* Working natural gas in storage declined last week to 3,911 billion cubic feet (Bcf) as of Friday, November 9, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR). An implied storage withdrawal of 18 Bcf for the week positioned storage volumes 71 Bcf above year ago levels.
* The natural gas rotary rig count, as reported by Baker Hughes Incorporated on November 9, decreased by 11 to 413 active units. Meanwhile, oil directed rigs increased by 16 to 1,389 units.
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National Oilwell Varco Announces Increase in Regular Quarterly Dividend
Pete Miller, Chairman, President and CEO of National Oilwell Varco, remarked, "This dividend increase reflects the Company's strong financial condition and our confidence in our business going forward."
National Oilwell Varco is a worldwide leader in the design, manufacture and sale of equipment and components used in oil and gas drilling and production operations, the provision of oilfield services, and supply chain integration services to the upstream oil and gas industry.
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