EIA: Canada is the leading supplier of crude oil to the United States

U.S. imports of Canadian crude oil rose to record levels during the first eight months of 2012, with Canada accounting for a growing share of total gross U.S. imports. The United States is importing more crude oil from Canada, even though the total amount of crude oil America buys from foreign suppliers is falling.

Canada is the largest supplier of foreign oil to the United States, followed by Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and Venezuela. Almost 99% of Canadian oil exports are sent to the U.S. market. Canada accounted for approximately 25% of U.S. crude oil imports in 2011, averaging 2.2 million barrels per day.



The importance of Canadian crude oil to U.S. refiners has increased in 2012, as Canada supplied the United States with a record of nearly 2.5 million barrels per day during January-August 2012, according to the latest oil trade data from EIA. At the same time, total U.S. crude oil imports fell from 8.9 million barrels per day in 2011 to 8.7 million barrels per day through August 2012. As a result, the share of Canadian oil as a percentage of total U.S. oil imports during the eight-month period increased to 28%.




 Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!

ONG: Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Weekly Technical Outlook for Sunday Dec. 2nd

 It's time for this weeks call from the great staff at Oil N'Gold.com.......


Crude oil stayed in established range of 84.05/89.90 last week. The corrective nature of the price actions from 84.05 so far argues that that it's merely a consolidation pattern. That is, fall from 100.42 isn't over yet. Hence, while stronger recovery could be seen as the consolidation continues, we'd expect upside to be limited by 50% retracement of 100.42 to 84.05 at 92.24. ON the downside, break of 84.05 will now target 77.28 support.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 114.83 are a triangle consolidation pattern. Fall from 100.42 is likely the fifth and the last leg of such consolidation. Having said that, downside should be contained above 77.28 and bring an upside breakout eventually. Break of 110.55 will strongly suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for above 114.83.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

The case for near term reversal is starting to build up in natural gas. Consider it just bounced off from medium term falling trendline, has bearish divergence condition seen in daily MACD. Nonetheless, break of 3.47 support is needed to confirm topping first. Otherwise, another rally would remain in favor to 4.0 psychological level. Sustained break of 3.47 will turn focus to 3.355. Break there should confirm near term reversal and should at least bring pull back to 2.575/3.277 support zone.

In the bigger picture, recent developments argued that medium term decline from 6.108 is completed at 1.902 already. It's bit early to confirm but bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD suggests that the down trend from 13.694 (2008 high) is possibly over too. Sustained break of the channel resistance (now at around 3.88) will set the stage for a test on 4.983 key resistance next. Meanwhile, break of 3.277 resistance turned support will argue that the rebound from 1.902 is over and the medium larger down trend is still in progress for a new low.

In the longer term picture, decisive break of 3.255 resistance was an important signal of long term bottoming reversal and should at least give a push to 4.983/6.108 resistance zone.

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

Gold's sharp at the end of the week suggests that corrective rebound from 1672.5 is possibly completed at 1755 already, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Initial focus in on 1704.5 minor support this week. Break will turn near term outlook bearish. In such case, whole decline from 1798 should be resuming for 61.8% retracement of 1526.7 to 1798.1 at 1630.4.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1923.7 high are viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that such consolidation is finished, and more range trading could be seen. In any case, downside of any falling leg should be contained by 1478.3/1577.4 support zone and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 1792.7/1804.4 resistance zone will argue that the long term up trend is possibly resuming for a new high above 1923.7.

In the long term picture, with 1478.3 support intact, there is no change in the long term bullish outlook in gold. While some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psychological level in the long run

Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts
 

Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
 

Is $3.933 This Winter’s High in Natural Gas?

Stephen Schork of the Schork Report is giving us a free Nat Gas 101 today. Do you think the high is in on natural gas for 2012?........

CME natural gas has now faded the 2011-2012 Fibonacci 62% retracement at 3.806 (continuous contract). In the wake of last week’s holiday rally to 3.933 and Wednesday’s 3.626 low print, it behooves us to take a look at history.

As illustrated in today’s issue of The Schork Report, in fifteen of the last twenty two heating seasons, the winter high in the CME Henry Hub contract was posted in the fourth quarter. In other words, nearly 70% of the time the high on the CME was put in well before the coldest period of the winter (i.e. the fourth week following the solstice). Moreover, on average, since 1990 the winter’s high is posted on December 10th; with half of the highs occurring before November 30th.

Counter to intuition, we tend to see the highest price for consumption commodities, especially natural gas, in the approach to the season. This is because fear and uncertainty regarding the market’s ability to offset looming, unknown demand, is priced into the front end of the curve.

To this effect, we have to consider: (1) was last week’s holiday (i.e. thinly traded) spike to 3.933 this winter’s high in spot gas, and (2) is the table now set for a run at the Oct/Nov roll-gap at 3.046?

In this vein, current telltales suggest the market is softening. For example, over the last week the backwardation on the cross-seasonal Mar/Apr spread was halved to 1.7 cents. In other words, supply concerns for this winter’s gas are falling.

That’s not bullish.

To receive a complimentary copy of today’s FULL research note, request a complimentary trial at www.SchorkReport.com. Just put CME in the source code field.


Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!

Playing the Long Term Trends in a Stock- ASPS Sample

Our trading partner David Banister must be in the holiday/giving spirit this week as he keeps cranking out the free trading advice....

How many times have you bought a stock and then a few weeks perhaps have gone by and you get frustrated with lack of real net movement? You see all kinds of other stocks moving every day and finally you give up, sell your stock and go chase another one. Inevitably what happens in many cases is you find out later that your instincts were right and your research was correct, as the stock you gave up on finally takes off leaving you frustrated.

Sometimes it helps to understand the long term picture of a stock cycle and try to determine where you may be at in the big picture. This way you may be more willing to sit on a stock a bit longer, understanding it may need some time to work off a prior large move to the upside. Stocks often consolidate in fibonacci periods of time, as those revolve mainly around sentiment related to the stock or the company itself. You can see big up moves that come out of nowhere and last for several weeks, and then many weeks of consolidation or mild decline. These are actually crowd behavioral movements playing out as sentiment swings from too bearish to overly bullish and back again.

In the sample below we outline ASPS, a strong growth company in the right sector at the right time. We can’t be sure that this stock will break out to the upside, but we do like the fundamentals and the catalysts ahead. At ATP we look for both technical and fundamental marriages as it were, and then do our best to time the entry and exits accordingly. ASPS plans to spin out two divisions as a stock dividend to shareholders in the next 30 days or so, and we think that will catalyze the shares as sentiment turns north.

In the meantime, the stock trades between 100 and 107 per share frustrating anyone who expects an immediate pop. Taking a look at a multi month chart with weekly views we can see that this actually has been consolidating for several weeks in a normal pattern. In this case the 20 week moving average line seems to be the bogey for this stock cycle for ASPS, and as we approach that line we may see a shift back north in sentiment. Should we be wrong, we will know if the stock breaks down materially from this crowd pattern in play now.



Above is the chart as of November 29th, let’s see how it plays out: Be sure to read our article about “Buying in the Trenches” as well. Disclosure: Our ATP service has recommended a long position in ASPS within the past few weeks.

Go to Active Trading Partners and subscribe by using coupon code AD499ATP in the coupon code field at the bottom of the sign up form. Sign up for quarterly and the discount will be applied at checkout, and you will get The Market Trend Forecast for free as well.


Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!

What are the U.S. Dollar and Equities Market Relationships in the Near Term

The SP 500 is likely to pullback from a 66 point rally off the 1343 pivots. Those pivots were right at a Fibonacci fractal retracement of 61.8% of the Summer rally. That rally ran from 1267-1474 as we all know in hindsight, and the correction was a normal correction within a bull cycle.

Near term, we had a nice run to 1409 and met resistance there. We would expect a pullback to the 1384 areas on the SP 500, if not a bit lower in the coming days. The US Dollar is likely to get a bounce which will also pull down Precious Metals along with stocks near term.

We think this could be a opportunity to buy as we approach pivot pullback buy points, but of course we will monitor in the event the pullback becomes more dire than expected.

Below are charts of the US Dollar and The SP 500 Index and potential near term movements to monitor. Over at our we closed out long positions in NUGT ETF with nice gains yesterday as well as stocks with trading profits while we watch the pullback action.

From COT staff writer David Banister

Just click here to sign up for Banisters forecast service that gives you his daily updates and free weekly reports that will keep you on the right side of the markets.


Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!

Are the Utilities Bottoming?.....It’s the Season to Own Utility Stocks

Over the past week we have been keeping our eye on several key sectors and stocks for potentially large end of year rallies to lock in more gains before 2013.

Our recent calls have been RIMM (up 54%), AAPL (up 5%), FB (up 8%) so it’s been a great month thus far. That being said there are three other plays that look amazing and one of them is the utilities sector.

Looking back 30 years clearly utilities have a tendency to rally going into year end. What makes this setup so exciting is that the Obama tax for 2013 has caused many investors to lock in capital gains along with dividend gains so the utility sector has recently been beaten.

We always like to cheer for the underdogs because they can make large moves quickly and this season its utility stocks.

30 Year Seasonality – Utilities Stocks



Utility Sector ETFs:

In the graph below we show the main utility ETFs for trading. Simple analysis clearly shows the selling momentum is slowing and where price should go if it can breakout above the red dotted resistance line. Exchange traded funds XLU, FXU, IDU, and DBU are the funds we found to be setting up.



Utilities Sector Trading Conclusion:

While we feel utilities are about start moving higher it is important to mention that the broad market is setting up for a 1-3 day pullback. If the stock market does pullback this week then we should see utilities pullback also. What we are looking for is a minor pullback in XLU with price holding up above $34 while the stock market pulls back.

Just Click Here if you would like to get our simple yet profitable ETF & stock trading ideas. It's simple, just join our newsletter today at The Gold & Oil Guy.com



Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!

Dollar tell us Stocks are Likely to Pullback – Simple Analysis

The stock market is at a very critical pivot point which I feel will generate opportunities in December and for the first quarter of 2013.

Trading with the trend is not always an easy task. It is human nature to predict and jump to conclusions and usually it’s better to trade with the trend no matter what your emotions are telling you. The current trend is down and I stick with that until we are proven wrong.

If you carefully analyze the charts below you will understand where we are trading in the market and what the risks are at this point. The question is are in the middle of a trend reversal back up, or is this just a bounce within a down trend? Either way, any pullback this week should be aggressively managed to lock in gains and tighten stops because it could go either way and you do not want to be on the wrong side of the table.

The chart below shows the US dollar index 4 hour chart. It looks as though we should start to see a bounce this week and that should put pressure on stocks and commodities.

The SP500 (SPY etf) below that shows my analysis and key price levels. I took a short position on the SPY Friday afternoon as I feel a pullback is imminent. That being said, all I need is one big down day and I will be pulling money off the table to lock in gains and tighten my stop.

For a detailed educational lesson on stock market cycles read my mini course "The Golden Nugget That Makes Traders Wealthy Trading"



My trading charts make reading the market simple, quick and precise so if you want this type of analysis and trade ideas delivered to your inbox every day including my Pre-Market video analysis then join my newsletter here at The Gold & Oil Guy.com

Chris Vermeulen

Why the S&P 500 & Gold Rallied in the Face of Negative News

The amount of negative news that we have seen recently has been mind blowing. Europe is going into recession, Greece and several other countries are on the verge of bankruptcy, the Middle East is a powder keg, and the U.S. is facing a fiscal cliff. Shockingly for most retail traders, the past week has produced a very strong return for U.S. equity indexes as well as risk assets in general.

Retail investors often times consistently lose money because they focus on the financial media and all of the negative news that is out there. Trust me, as a longer term trader and investor, there is never an absence of negative news or potentially poor economic possibilities. This is not to say that markets cannot decline, investors just need to understand that markets are cyclical in nature and do not ever move in a straight line.

Based on what I was reading from most of the financial blogosphere recently, you would think that the entire world was about to end. A few blogs were calling for an all out collapse late last week or a possible crash this past Monday, November 19th. As is typically the case, the market prognosticators were wrong with the calls for a crash or an absolute collapse in financial markets.

Unlike those blogs, members of my service at the Traders Video Playbook were getting information indicating that we were expecting higher prices. At our service, we lay out regular videos covering a variety of underlying assets from the S&P 500 Index and oil futures, to gold and treasury futures. The focus is purely on analysis of various underlying assets across multiple time frames. We cover intraday time frames as well as daily and weekly swing time frames throughout the week with videos and written updates.

To put into perspective what we were seeing in the marketplace on Monday November 19th, the following charts were sent out to our members during intraday trading that day....Click here for "Why the S&P 500 & Gold Rallied in the Face of Negative News"

See you in the markets,

J.W. Jones

Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!

Markets are Cyclical in Nature....Make sure you know these "Four Stages of Stocks"

Our good friend and trading partner Chris Vermeulen has put together an article detailing his classic economic theory that dissects the economic cycle into four distinct stages..... expansion, trough, decline and recovery. And he explains in detail why a stock is no different, and proceeds through these cycles.

Knowing this information is crucial to survival as this cycle happens on all time frames (1 minute chart all the way up to yearly charts). Harnessing this information for trade selection and timing greatly reduces the amount of trades you take, while focusing only on new leaders which have massive upside potential.

So take a few minutes and click here to read Markets are Cyclical in Nature....Make sure you know these "Four Stages of Stocks"

Natural Gas Trade Idea....Buying in the Trenches Pays Off

Recently we wrote about Natural Gas ETF UGAZ on the ATP Free Blog site as a sample of buying the dip or using the “cup with handle” dip buying for profits. Our November 11th article discussed waiting for a pullback to the 30-31 ranges on UGAZ and then going long for a reversal.

Within 48 hours the dip came into the buy range, and within a few days UGAZ ran to the $38 range for as much as a 24% reversal trade gain. Even now some 9 days later UGAZ trades around $36 per share for nice gains.

Another sample we had for subscribers was on November 7th in RIMM stock. We advised waiting for a pullback from 9.15 ranges to the 8.50-8.70 ranges. When the pullback came this is what we sent to subscribers:

ATP Active Trade Alert

RIMM- 8.64 has fallen as projected in to the 8.50-8.75 swing entry buy ranges.

This is an active trade meaning 1-5 days likely and a stop should be placed at 4-6% below your entry and NO LOWER than 8.00 for aggressive partners who take the trade.

Now on November 20th, about two weeks later, RIMM is trading near $10.00 per share. The stock fell to 8.14 during the market correction which was above the $8.00 stop and above a 6% stop loss range from entry. Partners who remained long would now be sitting on gains of 14%.

Consider joining our Swing Trading service we call Active Trading Partners and get education, advice, and on going daily updates. You will also receive our Market Trend Forecast service which covers Gold, Silver, and the SP 500 short and intermediate forecasts.

Go to ActiveTradingPartners.com and subscribe by using coupon code AD499ATP in the coupon code field at the bottom of the sign up form. Sign up for quarterly and the discount will be applied at checkout, and you will get The Market Trend Forecast for free as well.