Gold Should Be Nearing A Major Bottom

The recent rally in Gold took the metal from the 1620’s to roughly 1800 per ounce before the ensuing corrective action began. Back around October 20th we warned our readers about a likely “ wave 2” correction in Gold and we had several reasons for that warnings. One of the biggest concerns we had was that the sentiment surveys were running very hot at the time. The percentage of professional advisors polled that were bullish on GOLD was 88%, with 7% neutral and only 7% bearish. Elliott Wave Theory is the foundation of our work, though we are sure to mix in other clues and elements to “fact check” our reads. When you see sentiment readings that high, coupled with a $180 rally leading up to those readings, you can begin to look for clues of a top.

The other warning signal we noted was the MACD signal which had crossed south and was a topping warning signal to get out of GOLD for intermediate traders. At the time, we surmised that a “wave 2” correction in sentiment, and therefore price was required to work off the overbought conditions. The first level attacked the 1681 areas roughly and then a “B” wave rally to 1751 roughly ensued. Wave 2’s are made up of a 3 wave pattern, A down- B up- and C down to finish. It appears that GOLD is now in the final C wave down in sentiment to complete the correction pattern.

Clues for the “C” wave include the Goldman Sachs quasi-bearish 2013 GOLD forecast that came out today. In addition, the media attempting to explain the drop in GOLD as being related to stronger than expected economic indicators or fiscal cliff negotiations, neither of which make any sense at all.

We expect GOLD therefore to complete the C wave correction at 1631 or 1681 specifically. There are Fibonacci fractal relationships to the first leg down (The A wave) at those levels, and they tend to repeat themselves in terms of crowd behavior. At the 1681 level we have the C wave equal to 61.8% of the A wave amplitude. At 1631 we have a more traditional C wave equal to the A wave. In either event, look for a washout low in GOLD occurring at anytime near term, and for traders to start scaling in long.

Below is the GLD ETF chart showing the two most likely bottoms for the precious metal, one of which already qualifies as of today’s trading:

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Freeport-McMoRan to Acquire Plains Exploration and McMoRan Exploration

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX), Plains Exploration & Production Company (NYSE: PXP) and McMoRan Exploration Co. (NYSE: MMR) announced today that they have signed definitive merger agreements under which FCX will acquire PXP for approximately $6.9 billion in cash and stock and FCX will acquire MMR for approximately $3.4 billion in cash, or $2.1 billion net of 36 percent of the MMR interests currently owned by FCX and PXP. Upon closing, MMR shareholders will also receive a distribution of units in a royalty trust which will hold a 5 percent overriding royalty interest on future production in MMR’s existing shallow water ultra deep properties.

The combined company is expected to be a premier U.S. based natural resource company with an industry leading global portfolio of mineral assets, significant oil and gas resources and a growing production profile. FCX’s mineral assets include the world class Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia, the large-scale Morenci minerals district in North America, the Cerro Verde and El Abra operations in South America, the high potential Tenke Fungurume minerals district in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and a leading global molybdenum business.

The addition of a high quality, U.S. focused oil and gas resource base is expected to provide exposure to energy markets with positive fundamentals, strong margins and cash flows, exploration leverage and financially attractive long term investment opportunities. The combined company’s long lived resource base with commodities critical to the world’s economies provides enhanced opportunities to benefit from long term global economic growth. On a pro forma basis for 2013, approximately 74 percent of the combined company’s estimated EBITDA (equals operating income plus depreciation, depletion, and amortization) is expected to be generated from mining and 26 percent from oil and gas, with 48 percent of combined EBITDA from U.S. operations.

The oil and gas assets being acquired are located in attractive onshore and offshore U.S. geologic basins. PXP’s major assets include its established strong oil production facilities in California, a growing production profile in the onshore Eagle Ford trend in Texas, significant production facilities and growth potential in the Deepwater Gulf of Mexico and large onshore resources in the Haynesville natural gas trend in Louisiana. MMR is an industry leader in the emerging shallow water ultra deep gas trend with sizeable potential, located offshore in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico and onshore in South Louisiana. The MMR portfolio is expected to provide a large, long-term and low cost source of natural gas production.

Here is the complete terms of the deal.....


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EIA: U.S. Monthly Crude Oil Production Reaches Highest Level Since 1998

U.S. crude oil production (including lease condensate) averaged almost 6.5 million barrels per day in September 2012, the highest volume in nearly 15 years. The last time the United States produced 6.5 million barrels per day or more of crude oil was in January 1998. Since September 2011, U.S. production has increased by more than 900,000 barrels per day. Most of that increase is due to production from oil bearing rocks with very low permeability through the use of horizontal drilling combined with hydraulic fracturing. The states with the largest increases are Texas and North Dakota.

From September 2011 to September 2012, Texas production increased by more than 500,000 barrels per day, and North Dakota production increased by more than 250,000 barrels per day. Texas's increase in production is largely from the Eagle Ford formation in South Texas and the Permian Basin in West Texas. North Dakota's increase in oil production comes from the Bakken formation in the Williston Basin. Increased production from smaller-volume producing states, such as Oklahoma, New Mexico, Wyoming, Colorado, and Utah, is also contributing to the rise in domestic crude oil production.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Monthly.

Don't miss this weeks most popular articles.....

Gold, Silver and Miners in Stage 1 Accumulation Mode

Is the SP 500 at a Crucial Cross Roads?

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Kinder Morgan Announces 2013 Financial Expectations

Kinder Morgan today announced its preliminary 2013 projections for Kinder Morgan, Inc. (NYSE: KMI), Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P. (NYSE: KMP), Kinder Morgan Management, LLC (NYSE: KMR) and El Paso Pipeline Partners, L.P. (NYSE: EPB). Chairman and CEO Richard D. Kinder stated, “We anticipate strong growth in 2013 across the Kinder Morgan family of companies. KMI’s growth is driven primarily by its ownership of the general partners of KMP and EPB.

The majority of our assets resides at KMP and EPB. KMR is financially equivalent to KMP, but does not own any assets. Kinder Morgan primarily owns or operates a diversified portfolio of fee-based energy assets that generate substantial cash flow in virtually all types of market conditions. With our large footprint of midstream assets in North America, we are confident that Kinder Morgan is well positioned for future growth.”

KMI expects to declare dividends of $1.57 per share for 2013. This represents a 16 percent increase over KMI’s 2012 budget target of $1.35 per share and a 12 percent increase over the $1.40 per share of dividends it expects to declare for 2012. Growth at KMI in 2013 is expected to be driven by continued strong performance at KMP, along with contributions from EPB and the natural gas assets that KMI acquired in the El Paso Corporation transaction.

KMP expects to declare cash distributions of $5.28 per unit for 2013, a 6 percent increase over its 2012 budget target of $4.98 per unit, which it expects to meet. KMP’s 2013 budget projection includes the expected purchase (dropdowns) of 50 percent of El Paso Natural Gas Pipeline and a 50 percent stake in midstream assets from KMI, which would give KMP 100 percent ownership of these assets. (KMR also expects to declare distributions of $5.28 per share for 2013 and the distribution to KMR shareholders will be paid in the form of additional KMR shares.)

“We see exceptional growth opportunities across all of KMP’s business segments, including the need to build more midstream infrastructure to move or store oil, gas and liquids from the prolific shale plays in the U.S. and the oilsands in Alberta, along with increasing demand for export coal and CO2,” Kinder said.

Click here for more details on what KMP expects in 2013

Don't miss this weeks most popular articles.....

Gold, Silver and Miners in Stage 1 Accumulation Mode

Is the SP 500 at a Crucial Cross Roads?

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Is the SP 500 at a Crucial Cross Roads?

We had an interesting 131 point SP 500 decline from the summer fall highs of 1474 to the recent 1344 lows. Interesting because in the work that I do, we focus on crowd behavioral patterns, sentiment, and Elliott Wave Theory. There is no one technical analysis methodology that works all the time, so it’s important to incorporate other elements into your work to help with some clues. Let’s examine the crossroad we are at right now around 1420 on the SP 500 and why the next move may be a “tell” as they say in poker.

The correction from the 1474 highs can be read as a 3 wave correction, which in Elliott Wave Theory is corrective against the major trend, which so far has been up. 3 wave corrections serve to work off over zealousness of the crowd and above average bullish sentiment. To be sure, at the 1474 highs the sentiment surveys were running pretty hot and near 3 year highs, a flag that waved a warning sign for us. The correction though worked off that sentiment and at 1344 was in fact a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the rally from 1257-1474 that we witnessed this summer. These type of Fibonacci fractal retracements at 61.8% are common correction patterns in bull cycles.

What we need to see near term on this crossroad then is a clear cut rally over the 1424 area, which now is a 61.8% upwards retracement of the drop from 1474-1344. Why is that important to clear? Because 61.8% also is a common upwards retracement for a wave 2 counter-rally in a downward trend. Clearing that hurdle would indicate that the rally from the 1344 lows is more than just a counter-trend rally, and likely the confirmed start of a solid leg upwards towards highs for this bull market cycle.

This is why we like to draw these lines in the sands and let our subscribers be aware of what to watch and why. The above chart gives you an idea of where we are at in the current cycle. Consider joining us so we can help you with daily updates on the SP 500 and Gold, stop scratching your head and guessing as to the patterns in the markets today! Go to Market Trends Forecast.com and sign up for our free weekly reports.


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Gold, Silver and Miners in Stage 1 Accumulation Mode

We don’t hear much about gold and silver anymore on the news. This time last year you could not go 5 minutes without a TV or radio station talking about them. Why is this? Simple really, precious metals have been building a Stage 1 Basing Pattern for the last 12 months. This boring sideways trading range is how the market gets most of those long holders out of an investment before it starts another move up. The saying is “If the market doesn’t shake you out, it will wait you out”.

We all know time in money so the above statement makes a lot of sense doesn’t it? Instead of having your money sitting in an investment that has clearly displayed a large sideways range with month and possibly years before any significant breakout will occur, why would you want their money in it doing nothing? There are other opportunities which you could be putting your money into that could generate more gains until the precious metals sector sets up with a high probability trading pattern.

The good news is that gold, silver and precious metal miner stocks are forming a very large Stage 1 Accumulation pattern on the weekly chart. This points to a multi month rally in prices if they breakout above our resistance levels.

Gold & Gold Miner Stocks Weekly Analysis

The chart below shows a lot of analysis and to the untrained eye this may look messy and confusing, so take your time to review it. In short, what we are showing are sideways price patterns using the previous highs and lows for support and resistance levels. The analysis shows the shift in prices from bearish (down), to Neutral (sideways). The exciting part about this pattern is that a new bull market should emerge if our analysis is correct. Now, we are not talking about 5 -10% move here, we are talking about a multi month and possibly a year long rally in precious metals that could allow some individuals to retire early if played properly.

A break above our red dotted resistance lines should trigger aggressive buying in gold miners along with physical gold bullion.

In the past month we have been giving out some of my Stage 1 trading ideas which have generated some decent gains for those who follow along. All but one have generated gains with FSLR 12.5%, FB 12%, RIMM 54%, AAPL 5%, TLT 2.5%, XLU 1.5%, and KOL down -5.2%.

Silver & Silver Miner Stocks Weekly Analysis

This chart of silver and silver miner stocks (SIL), shows a very similar pattern to that of its big shiny sister (Yellow Gold). Silver carries a lot more risk because of its industrial usage. Also this commodity is thinly traded and can move very quickly on a daily basis compared to gold. Because of these quick price movements it has attracted a lot of speculative money which also has increased the volatility. More often than not silver will move 2-3 times more on a percentage bases than that of yellow gold.

Battle of the Miner ETFs Weekly Performance

This chart compares three precious metals miner ETFS (GDX – Gold Miners, SIL – Silver Miners, NUGT 3x Leveraged Gold Miners).

Silver miners have held up the best because the herd saw how big the move was a year ago and are front running the next potential rally. But, depending on how you read the charts and sentiment it may be pointing to the dormant gold miners for a bigger than expected rally. But debating which one will breakout and run the most is a conversation/debate of its own and even I can argue both sides. The safe play is that even if gold miners (GDX & GDXJ) underperform the silver miners (SIL), the NUGT which is 3x leveraged gold miners should be the same if not outperform silver miners.

Precious Metals & Miners Trading Conclusion

In short, we favor trading the miners over physical bullion simply because the charts show much more profit potential than if one was to buy the bullion exchange traded funds GLD and SLV.

The market seems to be setting up for some very large moves in 2013 and members of our trading newsletter should do very well. Be sure to join and follow along at The Gold & Oil Guy.com



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EIA: Canada is the leading supplier of crude oil to the United States

U.S. imports of Canadian crude oil rose to record levels during the first eight months of 2012, with Canada accounting for a growing share of total gross U.S. imports. The United States is importing more crude oil from Canada, even though the total amount of crude oil America buys from foreign suppliers is falling.

Canada is the largest supplier of foreign oil to the United States, followed by Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and Venezuela. Almost 99% of Canadian oil exports are sent to the U.S. market. Canada accounted for approximately 25% of U.S. crude oil imports in 2011, averaging 2.2 million barrels per day.



The importance of Canadian crude oil to U.S. refiners has increased in 2012, as Canada supplied the United States with a record of nearly 2.5 million barrels per day during January-August 2012, according to the latest oil trade data from EIA. At the same time, total U.S. crude oil imports fell from 8.9 million barrels per day in 2011 to 8.7 million barrels per day through August 2012. As a result, the share of Canadian oil as a percentage of total U.S. oil imports during the eight-month period increased to 28%.




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ONG: Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Weekly Technical Outlook for Sunday Dec. 2nd

 It's time for this weeks call from the great staff at Oil N'Gold.com.......


Crude oil stayed in established range of 84.05/89.90 last week. The corrective nature of the price actions from 84.05 so far argues that that it's merely a consolidation pattern. That is, fall from 100.42 isn't over yet. Hence, while stronger recovery could be seen as the consolidation continues, we'd expect upside to be limited by 50% retracement of 100.42 to 84.05 at 92.24. ON the downside, break of 84.05 will now target 77.28 support.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 114.83 are a triangle consolidation pattern. Fall from 100.42 is likely the fifth and the last leg of such consolidation. Having said that, downside should be contained above 77.28 and bring an upside breakout eventually. Break of 110.55 will strongly suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for above 114.83.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

The case for near term reversal is starting to build up in natural gas. Consider it just bounced off from medium term falling trendline, has bearish divergence condition seen in daily MACD. Nonetheless, break of 3.47 support is needed to confirm topping first. Otherwise, another rally would remain in favor to 4.0 psychological level. Sustained break of 3.47 will turn focus to 3.355. Break there should confirm near term reversal and should at least bring pull back to 2.575/3.277 support zone.

In the bigger picture, recent developments argued that medium term decline from 6.108 is completed at 1.902 already. It's bit early to confirm but bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD suggests that the down trend from 13.694 (2008 high) is possibly over too. Sustained break of the channel resistance (now at around 3.88) will set the stage for a test on 4.983 key resistance next. Meanwhile, break of 3.277 resistance turned support will argue that the rebound from 1.902 is over and the medium larger down trend is still in progress for a new low.

In the longer term picture, decisive break of 3.255 resistance was an important signal of long term bottoming reversal and should at least give a push to 4.983/6.108 resistance zone.

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

Gold's sharp at the end of the week suggests that corrective rebound from 1672.5 is possibly completed at 1755 already, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Initial focus in on 1704.5 minor support this week. Break will turn near term outlook bearish. In such case, whole decline from 1798 should be resuming for 61.8% retracement of 1526.7 to 1798.1 at 1630.4.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1923.7 high are viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that such consolidation is finished, and more range trading could be seen. In any case, downside of any falling leg should be contained by 1478.3/1577.4 support zone and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 1792.7/1804.4 resistance zone will argue that the long term up trend is possibly resuming for a new high above 1923.7.

In the long term picture, with 1478.3 support intact, there is no change in the long term bullish outlook in gold. While some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psychological level in the long run

Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts
 

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Is $3.933 This Winter’s High in Natural Gas?

Stephen Schork of the Schork Report is giving us a free Nat Gas 101 today. Do you think the high is in on natural gas for 2012?........

CME natural gas has now faded the 2011-2012 Fibonacci 62% retracement at 3.806 (continuous contract). In the wake of last week’s holiday rally to 3.933 and Wednesday’s 3.626 low print, it behooves us to take a look at history.

As illustrated in today’s issue of The Schork Report, in fifteen of the last twenty two heating seasons, the winter high in the CME Henry Hub contract was posted in the fourth quarter. In other words, nearly 70% of the time the high on the CME was put in well before the coldest period of the winter (i.e. the fourth week following the solstice). Moreover, on average, since 1990 the winter’s high is posted on December 10th; with half of the highs occurring before November 30th.

Counter to intuition, we tend to see the highest price for consumption commodities, especially natural gas, in the approach to the season. This is because fear and uncertainty regarding the market’s ability to offset looming, unknown demand, is priced into the front end of the curve.

To this effect, we have to consider: (1) was last week’s holiday (i.e. thinly traded) spike to 3.933 this winter’s high in spot gas, and (2) is the table now set for a run at the Oct/Nov roll-gap at 3.046?

In this vein, current telltales suggest the market is softening. For example, over the last week the backwardation on the cross-seasonal Mar/Apr spread was halved to 1.7 cents. In other words, supply concerns for this winter’s gas are falling.

That’s not bullish.

To receive a complimentary copy of today’s FULL research note, request a complimentary trial at www.SchorkReport.com. Just put CME in the source code field.


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Playing the Long Term Trends in a Stock- ASPS Sample

Our trading partner David Banister must be in the holiday/giving spirit this week as he keeps cranking out the free trading advice....

How many times have you bought a stock and then a few weeks perhaps have gone by and you get frustrated with lack of real net movement? You see all kinds of other stocks moving every day and finally you give up, sell your stock and go chase another one. Inevitably what happens in many cases is you find out later that your instincts were right and your research was correct, as the stock you gave up on finally takes off leaving you frustrated.

Sometimes it helps to understand the long term picture of a stock cycle and try to determine where you may be at in the big picture. This way you may be more willing to sit on a stock a bit longer, understanding it may need some time to work off a prior large move to the upside. Stocks often consolidate in fibonacci periods of time, as those revolve mainly around sentiment related to the stock or the company itself. You can see big up moves that come out of nowhere and last for several weeks, and then many weeks of consolidation or mild decline. These are actually crowd behavioral movements playing out as sentiment swings from too bearish to overly bullish and back again.

In the sample below we outline ASPS, a strong growth company in the right sector at the right time. We can’t be sure that this stock will break out to the upside, but we do like the fundamentals and the catalysts ahead. At ATP we look for both technical and fundamental marriages as it were, and then do our best to time the entry and exits accordingly. ASPS plans to spin out two divisions as a stock dividend to shareholders in the next 30 days or so, and we think that will catalyze the shares as sentiment turns north.

In the meantime, the stock trades between 100 and 107 per share frustrating anyone who expects an immediate pop. Taking a look at a multi month chart with weekly views we can see that this actually has been consolidating for several weeks in a normal pattern. In this case the 20 week moving average line seems to be the bogey for this stock cycle for ASPS, and as we approach that line we may see a shift back north in sentiment. Should we be wrong, we will know if the stock breaks down materially from this crowd pattern in play now.



Above is the chart as of November 29th, let’s see how it plays out: Be sure to read our article about “Buying in the Trenches” as well. Disclosure: Our ATP service has recommended a long position in ASPS within the past few weeks.

Go to Active Trading Partners and subscribe by using coupon code AD499ATP in the coupon code field at the bottom of the sign up form. Sign up for quarterly and the discount will be applied at checkout, and you will get The Market Trend Forecast for free as well.


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