The One Crude Oil Chart Everybody Should See

When people read about a long term forecast of world oil supply, say, out to 2030, they often believe that the forecasters are merely incorporating our knowledge of existing fields and figuring out how much oil can be extracted from them over the forecast period.

Nothing could be further from the truth. Much of the forecast supply has not yet been discovered or has no demonstrated technology which can extract or produce it economically. In other words, such forecasts are merely guesses based on the slimmest of evidence.

Perhaps the best ever illustration of this comes from a 2009 presentation made by Glen Sweetnam, a U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) official. The EIA is the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy.

The following chart from that presentation will upend any notion that we know exactly where all the oil we need to meet expected demand will come from.....Read the entire article "The One Crude Oil Chart Everybody Should See "


Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!

Is this "an emerging low" in gold stocks?

Gold stocks have been in another recent downtrend, which makes sense during a “wave 2″ correction in GOLD.

If we review the GDX ETF for Gold Stocks we can see a possible triple bottom formation. This one though looks bullish for a reversal trade to the upside near term as GOLD forms a C wave bottom.

This triple bottom looks like a series of higher lows should the 43-44 GDX ranges hold near term. The MACD line is still trending down, but in very oversold territory as in the prior two lows that had massive rallies.

Ways to play a reversal for the aggressive stock investor is NUGT ETF, which is a 300% long leveraged ETF based loosely on the GDX ETF (1x).

The specific timing of entering NUGT is of course tricky and best saved for our ATP trading service. That said, assuming GOLD does bottom at 1681 or 1631 near term, the GOLD stocks tend to lead the metal higher.… so they will bottom BEFORE the metal.

Here is the GDX long term chart showing what looks like an emerging Tradeable low...




Learn more about our trading partners, ATP, at The Active Trading Partners and click here to review recent samples here.


 Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!

What the VIX Term Structure is Saying About the Fiscal Cliff

The past few weeks have been full of a constant barrage of press conferences and public statements from the charlatans in Washington D.C. Politicians cannot pass up a chance to get in front of the cameras and the media has used the “fiscal cliff” as a mechanism to scare average Americans further about their future.

Interestingly enough, amid all of the nonsense that has been going on stocks have remained resilient. I think sometimes its important to just step back away from the media’s noise and just look at some price charts for more clarity. The S&P 500 Index has been trading in a relatively tight range now for over 6 trading sessions as shown here by the great staff at The Technical Traders.com......

Read "What the VIX Term Structure is Saying About the Fiscal Cliff"



Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!

Energy Sector Storm Brewing – Oil & Gas Stocks

Todays article comes from our trading partner Chris Vermeulen of The Gold & Oil Guy.com and if you have been following him this fall you know Chris has been cranking out the great calls. Today appears to be no different.....

Oil and gas along with their equities have been under performing for the most part of 2012 and they are still under heavy selling pressure.

I watch the oil futures chart very closely for price and volume action. And the one thing that is clear for oil is that big sellers are still unloading copious amounts of contracts which is keeping the price from moving higher. Oil is trading in a very large range and is trending its way back down the lower reversal zone currently. Once price reverses back up and starts heading towards the $100 and $105 levels it will trigger strong buying across the entire energy sector.

Crude Oil, Energy & Utility Sector Chart – Weekly Time Frame

The chart below shows the light crude oil price along with the energy and utilities sectors. The patterns on the chart are clearly pointing to higher prices but the price of oil must shows signs of strength before that will happen. Once XLE & XLU prices break above their upper resistance levels (blue dotted line) they should takeoff and provide double digit returns.

Looking at the XLU utilities sector above I am sure you noticed the steady rise in the price the last couple of years. This was a result in the low interest rates in bond price and a shift from investors looking for higher yields for their money. Utility stocks carry below average risk in the world of equities and pay out a steady and healthy dividend year after year. So this is where long term investment capital has/is being parked for the time being.

Utility Stock Sector – Deeper Look – 2 Hour Candle Chart Time Frame

Last week I covered utility stocks in detail showing you the Stage 1 – Accumulation base which they had formed. The chart below shows the recent price action on the 2 hour candle chart and recent run up. You can learn more about how to take advantage of this sector here.





Oil and Gas Services – Daily Time Frame

This chart shows a very bullish picture for the services along with its relative strength to oil (USO) at the bottom. While the sector looks a little overbought here on the short term chart, overall it’s pointing to much higher prices.





Energy Sector Conclusion:

In short, crude oil looks to be trading in a VERY large range without any sign a breakout above or below its channel lines for several months at the minimum. But if the lower channel line is reached and oil starts to trend up then these energy related sector ETFs should post some very large gains and should not be ignored.

Get These Weekly Trade/Investment Ideas In Your Inbox FREE by visiting here at The Gold & Oil Guy.com

Chris Vermeulen

Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!

Gold Should Be Nearing A Major Bottom

The recent rally in Gold took the metal from the 1620’s to roughly 1800 per ounce before the ensuing corrective action began. Back around October 20th we warned our readers about a likely “ wave 2” correction in Gold and we had several reasons for that warnings. One of the biggest concerns we had was that the sentiment surveys were running very hot at the time. The percentage of professional advisors polled that were bullish on GOLD was 88%, with 7% neutral and only 7% bearish. Elliott Wave Theory is the foundation of our work, though we are sure to mix in other clues and elements to “fact check” our reads. When you see sentiment readings that high, coupled with a $180 rally leading up to those readings, you can begin to look for clues of a top.

The other warning signal we noted was the MACD signal which had crossed south and was a topping warning signal to get out of GOLD for intermediate traders. At the time, we surmised that a “wave 2” correction in sentiment, and therefore price was required to work off the overbought conditions. The first level attacked the 1681 areas roughly and then a “B” wave rally to 1751 roughly ensued. Wave 2’s are made up of a 3 wave pattern, A down- B up- and C down to finish. It appears that GOLD is now in the final C wave down in sentiment to complete the correction pattern.

Clues for the “C” wave include the Goldman Sachs quasi-bearish 2013 GOLD forecast that came out today. In addition, the media attempting to explain the drop in GOLD as being related to stronger than expected economic indicators or fiscal cliff negotiations, neither of which make any sense at all.

We expect GOLD therefore to complete the C wave correction at 1631 or 1681 specifically. There are Fibonacci fractal relationships to the first leg down (The A wave) at those levels, and they tend to repeat themselves in terms of crowd behavior. At the 1681 level we have the C wave equal to 61.8% of the A wave amplitude. At 1631 we have a more traditional C wave equal to the A wave. In either event, look for a washout low in GOLD occurring at anytime near term, and for traders to start scaling in long.

Below is the GLD ETF chart showing the two most likely bottoms for the precious metal, one of which already qualifies as of today’s trading:

Click here to sign up for our free weekly report or take advantage by signing up today for SP 500 and GOLD forecasts updated on a daily basis.

Freeport-McMoRan to Acquire Plains Exploration and McMoRan Exploration

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX), Plains Exploration & Production Company (NYSE: PXP) and McMoRan Exploration Co. (NYSE: MMR) announced today that they have signed definitive merger agreements under which FCX will acquire PXP for approximately $6.9 billion in cash and stock and FCX will acquire MMR for approximately $3.4 billion in cash, or $2.1 billion net of 36 percent of the MMR interests currently owned by FCX and PXP. Upon closing, MMR shareholders will also receive a distribution of units in a royalty trust which will hold a 5 percent overriding royalty interest on future production in MMR’s existing shallow water ultra deep properties.

The combined company is expected to be a premier U.S. based natural resource company with an industry leading global portfolio of mineral assets, significant oil and gas resources and a growing production profile. FCX’s mineral assets include the world class Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia, the large-scale Morenci minerals district in North America, the Cerro Verde and El Abra operations in South America, the high potential Tenke Fungurume minerals district in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and a leading global molybdenum business.

The addition of a high quality, U.S. focused oil and gas resource base is expected to provide exposure to energy markets with positive fundamentals, strong margins and cash flows, exploration leverage and financially attractive long term investment opportunities. The combined company’s long lived resource base with commodities critical to the world’s economies provides enhanced opportunities to benefit from long term global economic growth. On a pro forma basis for 2013, approximately 74 percent of the combined company’s estimated EBITDA (equals operating income plus depreciation, depletion, and amortization) is expected to be generated from mining and 26 percent from oil and gas, with 48 percent of combined EBITDA from U.S. operations.

The oil and gas assets being acquired are located in attractive onshore and offshore U.S. geologic basins. PXP’s major assets include its established strong oil production facilities in California, a growing production profile in the onshore Eagle Ford trend in Texas, significant production facilities and growth potential in the Deepwater Gulf of Mexico and large onshore resources in the Haynesville natural gas trend in Louisiana. MMR is an industry leader in the emerging shallow water ultra deep gas trend with sizeable potential, located offshore in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico and onshore in South Louisiana. The MMR portfolio is expected to provide a large, long-term and low cost source of natural gas production.

Here is the complete terms of the deal.....


Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!

EIA: U.S. Monthly Crude Oil Production Reaches Highest Level Since 1998

U.S. crude oil production (including lease condensate) averaged almost 6.5 million barrels per day in September 2012, the highest volume in nearly 15 years. The last time the United States produced 6.5 million barrels per day or more of crude oil was in January 1998. Since September 2011, U.S. production has increased by more than 900,000 barrels per day. Most of that increase is due to production from oil bearing rocks with very low permeability through the use of horizontal drilling combined with hydraulic fracturing. The states with the largest increases are Texas and North Dakota.

From September 2011 to September 2012, Texas production increased by more than 500,000 barrels per day, and North Dakota production increased by more than 250,000 barrels per day. Texas's increase in production is largely from the Eagle Ford formation in South Texas and the Permian Basin in West Texas. North Dakota's increase in oil production comes from the Bakken formation in the Williston Basin. Increased production from smaller-volume producing states, such as Oklahoma, New Mexico, Wyoming, Colorado, and Utah, is also contributing to the rise in domestic crude oil production.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Monthly.

Don't miss this weeks most popular articles.....

Gold, Silver and Miners in Stage 1 Accumulation Mode

Is the SP 500 at a Crucial Cross Roads?

Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!

Kinder Morgan Announces 2013 Financial Expectations

Kinder Morgan today announced its preliminary 2013 projections for Kinder Morgan, Inc. (NYSE: KMI), Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P. (NYSE: KMP), Kinder Morgan Management, LLC (NYSE: KMR) and El Paso Pipeline Partners, L.P. (NYSE: EPB). Chairman and CEO Richard D. Kinder stated, “We anticipate strong growth in 2013 across the Kinder Morgan family of companies. KMI’s growth is driven primarily by its ownership of the general partners of KMP and EPB.

The majority of our assets resides at KMP and EPB. KMR is financially equivalent to KMP, but does not own any assets. Kinder Morgan primarily owns or operates a diversified portfolio of fee-based energy assets that generate substantial cash flow in virtually all types of market conditions. With our large footprint of midstream assets in North America, we are confident that Kinder Morgan is well positioned for future growth.”

KMI expects to declare dividends of $1.57 per share for 2013. This represents a 16 percent increase over KMI’s 2012 budget target of $1.35 per share and a 12 percent increase over the $1.40 per share of dividends it expects to declare for 2012. Growth at KMI in 2013 is expected to be driven by continued strong performance at KMP, along with contributions from EPB and the natural gas assets that KMI acquired in the El Paso Corporation transaction.

KMP expects to declare cash distributions of $5.28 per unit for 2013, a 6 percent increase over its 2012 budget target of $4.98 per unit, which it expects to meet. KMP’s 2013 budget projection includes the expected purchase (dropdowns) of 50 percent of El Paso Natural Gas Pipeline and a 50 percent stake in midstream assets from KMI, which would give KMP 100 percent ownership of these assets. (KMR also expects to declare distributions of $5.28 per share for 2013 and the distribution to KMR shareholders will be paid in the form of additional KMR shares.)

“We see exceptional growth opportunities across all of KMP’s business segments, including the need to build more midstream infrastructure to move or store oil, gas and liquids from the prolific shale plays in the U.S. and the oilsands in Alberta, along with increasing demand for export coal and CO2,” Kinder said.

Click here for more details on what KMP expects in 2013

Don't miss this weeks most popular articles.....

Gold, Silver and Miners in Stage 1 Accumulation Mode

Is the SP 500 at a Crucial Cross Roads?

Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!

Is the SP 500 at a Crucial Cross Roads?

We had an interesting 131 point SP 500 decline from the summer fall highs of 1474 to the recent 1344 lows. Interesting because in the work that I do, we focus on crowd behavioral patterns, sentiment, and Elliott Wave Theory. There is no one technical analysis methodology that works all the time, so it’s important to incorporate other elements into your work to help with some clues. Let’s examine the crossroad we are at right now around 1420 on the SP 500 and why the next move may be a “tell” as they say in poker.

The correction from the 1474 highs can be read as a 3 wave correction, which in Elliott Wave Theory is corrective against the major trend, which so far has been up. 3 wave corrections serve to work off over zealousness of the crowd and above average bullish sentiment. To be sure, at the 1474 highs the sentiment surveys were running pretty hot and near 3 year highs, a flag that waved a warning sign for us. The correction though worked off that sentiment and at 1344 was in fact a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the rally from 1257-1474 that we witnessed this summer. These type of Fibonacci fractal retracements at 61.8% are common correction patterns in bull cycles.

What we need to see near term on this crossroad then is a clear cut rally over the 1424 area, which now is a 61.8% upwards retracement of the drop from 1474-1344. Why is that important to clear? Because 61.8% also is a common upwards retracement for a wave 2 counter-rally in a downward trend. Clearing that hurdle would indicate that the rally from the 1344 lows is more than just a counter-trend rally, and likely the confirmed start of a solid leg upwards towards highs for this bull market cycle.

This is why we like to draw these lines in the sands and let our subscribers be aware of what to watch and why. The above chart gives you an idea of where we are at in the current cycle. Consider joining us so we can help you with daily updates on the SP 500 and Gold, stop scratching your head and guessing as to the patterns in the markets today! Go to Market Trends Forecast.com and sign up for our free weekly reports.


Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!

Gold, Silver and Miners in Stage 1 Accumulation Mode

We don’t hear much about gold and silver anymore on the news. This time last year you could not go 5 minutes without a TV or radio station talking about them. Why is this? Simple really, precious metals have been building a Stage 1 Basing Pattern for the last 12 months. This boring sideways trading range is how the market gets most of those long holders out of an investment before it starts another move up. The saying is “If the market doesn’t shake you out, it will wait you out”.

We all know time in money so the above statement makes a lot of sense doesn’t it? Instead of having your money sitting in an investment that has clearly displayed a large sideways range with month and possibly years before any significant breakout will occur, why would you want their money in it doing nothing? There are other opportunities which you could be putting your money into that could generate more gains until the precious metals sector sets up with a high probability trading pattern.

The good news is that gold, silver and precious metal miner stocks are forming a very large Stage 1 Accumulation pattern on the weekly chart. This points to a multi month rally in prices if they breakout above our resistance levels.

Gold & Gold Miner Stocks Weekly Analysis

The chart below shows a lot of analysis and to the untrained eye this may look messy and confusing, so take your time to review it. In short, what we are showing are sideways price patterns using the previous highs and lows for support and resistance levels. The analysis shows the shift in prices from bearish (down), to Neutral (sideways). The exciting part about this pattern is that a new bull market should emerge if our analysis is correct. Now, we are not talking about 5 -10% move here, we are talking about a multi month and possibly a year long rally in precious metals that could allow some individuals to retire early if played properly.

A break above our red dotted resistance lines should trigger aggressive buying in gold miners along with physical gold bullion.

In the past month we have been giving out some of my Stage 1 trading ideas which have generated some decent gains for those who follow along. All but one have generated gains with FSLR 12.5%, FB 12%, RIMM 54%, AAPL 5%, TLT 2.5%, XLU 1.5%, and KOL down -5.2%.

Silver & Silver Miner Stocks Weekly Analysis

This chart of silver and silver miner stocks (SIL), shows a very similar pattern to that of its big shiny sister (Yellow Gold). Silver carries a lot more risk because of its industrial usage. Also this commodity is thinly traded and can move very quickly on a daily basis compared to gold. Because of these quick price movements it has attracted a lot of speculative money which also has increased the volatility. More often than not silver will move 2-3 times more on a percentage bases than that of yellow gold.

Battle of the Miner ETFs Weekly Performance

This chart compares three precious metals miner ETFS (GDX – Gold Miners, SIL – Silver Miners, NUGT 3x Leveraged Gold Miners).

Silver miners have held up the best because the herd saw how big the move was a year ago and are front running the next potential rally. But, depending on how you read the charts and sentiment it may be pointing to the dormant gold miners for a bigger than expected rally. But debating which one will breakout and run the most is a conversation/debate of its own and even I can argue both sides. The safe play is that even if gold miners (GDX & GDXJ) underperform the silver miners (SIL), the NUGT which is 3x leveraged gold miners should be the same if not outperform silver miners.

Precious Metals & Miners Trading Conclusion

In short, we favor trading the miners over physical bullion simply because the charts show much more profit potential than if one was to buy the bullion exchange traded funds GLD and SLV.

The market seems to be setting up for some very large moves in 2013 and members of our trading newsletter should do very well. Be sure to join and follow along at The Gold & Oil Guy.com



 Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!