The New Era of Oil Renaissance....Where Nuclear Failed and Crude Oil Succeeded

 From our friends at EconMatters......

In a continuation of our series on the state of the oil industry we look at some of the other ramifications of what we are labeling the Oil Renaissance in the US, and around the world for that matter. This phrase was first proposed regarding the potential Nuclear turnaround here in the US, where companies like NRG Energy, Toshiba and many more players all along the supply chain were positioning themselves for the Nuclear Renaissance of cheap, and abundant Nuclear energy for the next 50 years.

Well, the natural disaster in Japan changed that movement in the span of a week of just untenable radioactivity readings coming out of Japan. An already uphill battle for changing public sentiment towards the dangers of nuclear energy became an impractical fight from an investment standpoint that relied upon large DOE loan guarantees to attract private investment.

It is ironic, but all these companies spent a lot of time and effort from lobbying to developing strategic partnerships with each other, and in the end, most of that 7 year effort had to be written off by firms. It really shows how firms have to get the industry right; Oil was so much the smarter play. Higher margins, better technology, much easier safety hurdles, and even the environmental fight is much more manageable.

Not to mention the number of jobs created is far more with an Oil Renaissance as opposed to a Nuclear Renaissance, even with a complete buildup of the entire nuclear supply chain. Nuclear projects are just not scalable like oil projects are from a numbers standpoint due to the regulation, lead times for components, inspection, build times, and many more constraints.

No DOE Loan Guarantees: The Free Market at Work

We are going to have a Renaissance in this country, it just happened under everyone`s nose. The free market of high oil prices for the last 10 years made it happen all on its own without government subsidies, and part of the reason that things are going to get real tough for the alternative energy folks over the next 5 years as those government subsidies wind down. They will not make sense from an economic standpoint once oil prices come down considerably, and from a budgetary perspective we can no longer afford this propping up industries that cannot sustain themselves on their own merit in the free market. A 16 trillion dollar debt and climbing means the environmentalists will now be facing an uphill fight on Capitol Hill to have their cause funded by the American taxpayer.

Click here to read the entire EconMatters article "The New Era of Oil Renaissance, Where Nuclear Failed, Crude Oil Succeeded"


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SeaDrill [SDRL] Financial Calendar for 2013

Don't put that calendar away....Seadrill Limited [SDRL] plans to release its financial statements on the following dates in 2013:

February 28, 2013 - Preliminary fourth quarter and financial year 2012 results

May 31, 2013 - First quarter 2013 results

August 30, 2013 - Second quarter 2013 results

November 29, 2013 - Third quarter 2013 results

Please be advised that the dates are subject to change.

This information is subject of the disclosure requirements pursuant to section 5-12 of the Norwegian Securities Trading Act.

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Now Available....CME Groups 2013 Product Expiration Calendar

OK fellow commodity traders, it's time to start getting ready for 2013. Make sure you bookmark this page, there is no excuse to ever miss a single energy product expiration day.


Just click here to get the CME Groups 2013 Product Expiration Calendar





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Musings: E&P Spending Survey Gives Cheer Not Lumps Of Coal

The annual exploration and production spending outlook survey conducted by Barclays oilfield service stock research team was unveiled a couple of weeks ago.

According to the analysts, global oil and gas companies plan on boosting their E&P spending by 7 percent to a record $644 billion in 2013. That's the good news. The bad news is that almost all the growth in spending will be outside of North America, where the spending outlook is projected to be flat with 2012.

The analytical team at Barclays has been conducting these spending surveys for many years, and the results are anxiously awaited by the industry to see the thinking of managements about future oil and gas prices, commodity demand and where and how much the oil and gas companies figure they can, and should, spend to find, develop and produce hydrocarbons.

The capital spending increase for 2013 would mark the fourth consecutive year of growth, although the amount of the annual increases has varied noticeably. The Barclays' analysts believe, as well as energy company managements, the industry is in the early stage of an extended demand cycle, which will be driven by growth in developing economies.......Read the entire Musings article.


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EIA: U.S. could become the world’s top liquid fuels producer, but how much does it matter?

Significant increases in U.S. production of crude oil and other liquid fuels and the outlook for further growth have focused attention on the possibility that the United States could soon surpass Saudi Arabia to become the leading global producer.

A higher level of U.S. oil production could significantly boost the U.S. economy, and could also reduce global oil prices through its effect on the global crude oil and product market balances. However, regardless of any future crossing of U.S. and Saudi production paths, the timing of which would depend on which particular accounting convention is applied, Saudi Arabia will continue to play a unique and vital role in world oil markets.



Read the entire EIA article

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Trading the ABC Sentiment Shifts Ahead Of The Crowd

Today David Banister shows us how to spot the 3 day rest B wave for profits......

One of the most obvious keys to successful trading or investing is buying low and selling high. The problem being if it was that easy to pinpoint those low and high points then all traders would be batting 1000%. What we use at my ATP service is a combination of fundamental analysis and catalyst spotting inter-twined with charting techniques. Most of our work revolves around buying substantial dips in a strong stock, 3x ETF’s, or reversal patterns. 3x ETF’s are great for short term swings as they function almost exclusively on crowd behavioral patterns, but it also applies to individual stocks.

In all cases what traders really need to spot ahead of the masses of investors is a subtle shift in sentiment. That key pivot point where the negative sentiment whether it be short term or long term is about to run out of gas, and the bullish sentiment is going to take over and reverse the stock or ETF higher or break the position out of a base pattern.

One of the most common patterns amongst many that we use as trigger points is the ABC pattern. This is a situation where the stock or ETF recently had a strong run. That run produced a flurry of over optimistic sentiment and is reflected in the high spike in the stock from the prior base. We call this the “A Wave High” pivot point. This is where many of the traders who chase short term performance come in with a bang, right near the top.

Read Banisters complete article "Trading the ABC Sentiment Shifts Ahead Of The Crowd"



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EIA: United States Energy Imports Decline While Energy Exports Increase

In 2011, the United States consumed more than 97 quadrillion Btu (quads) of energy, despite only producing about 78 quads. The difference, about 18 quads, reflects the balance of imports and exports of energy. Petroleum, which includes crude oil as well as petroleum products, accounted for a majority of both energy imports and exports.

The United States imported almost three times as much energy as it exported in 2011, a ratio that is much lower than the import peak in 2002, when energy imports were more than eight times energy exports. Imports have exceeded exports in every year since 1952.

Petroleum made up about 86% of energy imports in 2011. Canada supplied the largest share of these petroleum imports. The next biggest sources of U.S. petroleum imports in 2011 were Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Nigeria, in that order. Overall, about 40% of U.S. petroleum imports came from countries in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), while 60% came from non OPEC countries such as Canada, Mexico, Russia, and Brazil. Most of these petroleum imports were crude oil as opposed to petroleum products.



Besides petroleum, most of the remaining energy imports were natural gas (12%). All other fuel sources, including coal, coal coke, biofuels, and electricity, combined to account for about 2% of energy imports in 2011.

Petroleum also made up the bulk (57%) of U.S. energy exports in 2011. However, less than 2% of that exported petroleum was crude oil. Most of it was products derived from crude oil: petroleum products, unfinished oils, pentanes plus, and gasoline blending components, as the United States has some of the world's most advanced oil refineries.

Other energy exports include coal and coal coke (27%), natural gas (15%) and a small amount of biofuels and electricity (about 1%).

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Getting Coal in Your Stocking May Be Exactly What You Want

Looks like the guys at The Gold & Oil Guy.com are working through the weekend as staffer Chris Vermeulen is bringing us yet another great trade to get Mondays trading off to a good start.....

We all want new and exciting electronic gizmos and gadgets for the holiday season. Unfortunately they have the tendency to lose almost all their value within weeks because of newer versions etc… but what if you just got a lump of dirty old coal in your stocking, how would you feel?

The only individuals who would appreciate a dirty gift like that would be those forward looking investors who see major opportunities before they become the next big movers and headline news.

Knowing how to spot Stage 1 patterns is one of the most important bits of information you need to know as an investor. This one pattern is how I found RIMM which now up 100% in the past 30 days, ANR up 30% in two weeks, FSLR up 20% in 20 days and the list goes on. My main focus is on ETFs because of lower risk they provide but very powerful when applied to individual stocks.

Coal and coal stocks have been out of favor for almost two years now. But these unwanted and hated shares may soon be owned by the masses, or at least by traders and investors. A few weeks ago to I talked about the four stages all investments go through and which patters you must be able to spot in order to make huge money investing while having very limited downside risk.

In summary, Trade with the BIG BOARD and only focusing on buying stocks, ETFs etc… as they are coming out of a Stage 1 Accumulation Basing Pattern. This puts the odds greatly in your favor for not only winning the majority of your trades but to generate above average returns.

The BIG BOARD – NYSE – Weekly Major Stock Market Trend

The New York Stock Exchange is the big board. This chart formed a reversal candle last week which points to lower prices. Its likely we see a 1-2 week dip before buyers step back in. Until then individual stocks should pause or form mini bull flags until the sellers are finished and buyers step back into risk on assets (equities).

Coal Sector ETF Showing Stage 1 Basing Pattern

Coal stocks have been bouncing bottom for some time and if you did not review the Stages Report using the link above then do so now so you know what to expect in detail.

KOL coal exchange traded fund is a basket of coal companies and is starting to show signs of a new bull market. A breakout and close above $26.00 should trigger strong buying with the potential of a 21% gain before it hits my first price target. This could go way past that but one target at a time folks.

Naturally I would like to see a bull flag or pause in KOL over the next couple weeks, then look to get long using the pivot low of that pause/bull flag as my protective stop. I’m not jumping in here as the broad market looks ready to correct and ¾ stocks follow the big board which will pull KOL down.

 

ANR – My Top Coal Stock Pick

I pointed out ANR at $7.50 at the beginning of December to followers as it was the best looking coal stock I could find. The two key indicators “Price” and “Volume” were clearly pointing to higher prices and the potential gain even if it was just played up to the Stage 1 Resistance Level still netted a 30% move. Crazy part is that there is the potential for a 100% rally to my first price target.

You want Gizmos or Coal in You’re Stocking???

In short, I really like the coal sector for the first quarter of 2013. I’m not too worried about the fiscal cliff as it’s not the end of the world and the US along with most other countries are all bankrupt together in my opinion. New rules and ideas will be implemented and life and business will continue… I am not to worried.

I am expecting stocks to continue sideways or higher into May at which time a serious correction could take place. But not to worry as we take things one week at time and will be adjusting my outlook accordingly.

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Chris Vermeulen

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Schlumberger Issues Disappointing Fourth Quarter Update

Schlumberger Limited (NYSE:SLB) provided the following fourth quarter operational update on Friday.


• The Europe/CIS/Africa Area is experiencing continued contractual delays combined with higher than usual seasonal slowdowns in activity

• North America activity is weaker than anticipated on land in the US and Western Canada.

The combined earnings per share impact of the above is estimated to be in the range of $0.05 to $0.07 per share.

Schlumberger will discuss final results of the fourth quarter in detail during its previously announced fourth quarter earnings conference call on January 18, 2013, beginning at 9:00 am (US Eastern Time), 3:00 pm (Paris time).

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Mid week trades to focus on .... SPX, U.S. Dollar and Natural Gas

Yesterday’s price action was very bearish yet again and we are patiently waiting for a counter trend pullback to happen. While three are some good looking plays out there I really do not want to get long until the market clears the air with a bout or three of strong selling. Remember 3:4 stocks follow the market and the odds of picking a commodity or ETF that bucks the trend is unlikely.

SP500 / Broad Stock Market

We have seen a bug run up in stocks this month and things are looking a little long in the teeth. A large number of stocks are trading above their upper Bollinger band and the broad market is testing that key resistance level also. Typically when a Bollinger band is reached we see price reverse for a couple days at minimum.

While the equities market is in a new uptrend as seen by the moving averages I pullback seems imminient. The last two days has formed reversal candles and are pointing to lower prices.



Dollar Index Hourly Chart

This chart shows a possible bottom forming in the dollar pointing to a 3-8 day pullback in stocks.



Gold Futures Hourly Chart



Natural Gas Hourly Chart



Morning Trading Conclusion

Looking at the charts on several different time frames, not all shown here, technical analysis shows a pullback in stocks is highly likely. This is what we are currently positioned for.

The US dollars downward momentum is slowing and if it can find a bid today it should trigger strong selling in both stocks and commodities. Gold and silver are down sharply along with miners.

We have been watching natural gas for a few months and know that it has been trading inverse to what stocks do. This bodes well for a bounce in natural gas if stocks start a sell off. That being said, natural gas is trading at a key tipping point that could spark a very fast and hard drop. This knife can fall at a speed that will take a slice out of your trading account if not traded and managed properly (tiny position and use of a stop). I actually like natural gas the more it moves down and could issue a buy alert on it today or this week. I would like to see volume decline at this level showing the momentum is slowing......

Chris Vermeulen

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