WTI Crude Oil & Oil Stocks Seasonality & Year-End Outlook

By: Chris Vermeulen – The Gold & Oil Guy.com.....

Crude oil has had some large price swings this year and another one may be on its way. This report shows the seasonality of crude oil along with where oil is trading and what the oil service stocks are telling us is likely to happen going into year end.

Since WTI Crude Oil topped out in September at the $100 resistance level (Century Number) many traders are looking for a bounce or bottom to form in the next week. Historical charts show that on average the price of oil falls during November and the first half of December.

The charts of oil and oil stocks shown below have formed patterns on both time frames (weekly & daily) that lower prices are to be expected. If you did not read my Gold Seasonality Report I just posted be sure to review it here: Gold Seasonal Report


  
WTI Crude Oil Weekly Chart:
Here you can see that price tends to fall going into Christmas and rallies during the last week of trading. This price action falls in line with Dimitri Specks seasonal chart providing us with insight as to what we should expect. Later this week I will finish my report on the Election Cycle Seasonality report which shows weakness in the market during Oct & Nov when a president is up for re-election.



Oil Services Stocks – Weekly Chart: 
If you follow oil closely then you know likely know already that oil related stocks can lead the price of oil by a couple weeks. What this means is that if big money is flowing into oil stocks (bullish price patterns with strong volume), then you should expect the price of crude oil to rise in the coming days. That said, if money is flowing OUT of oils stocks then lower or sideways oil price should be expected.

The weekly chart oil stocks show a very large bearish head & shoulders pattern. While I do not think the neckline will be broken it is very possible.

One of the most important pieces of data on the chart is the VOLUME. Notice the lack of it… Volume tells us how much interest and power is behind chart patterns and declining volume clearly tells us these investments are out of favor currently and that big money is not moving into them.



Oil Services Stocks – DAILY Chart: 
Zooming into the daily chart of the oil service stocks we can see there is yet another bearish pattern unfolding. Another head & shoulders pattern which looks as though it is just starting to breakdown as of this writing. Next support level is $35-36.



WTI Crude Oil and Oil Service Stocks Trading Conclusion:
Looking forward 1-2 months (November – December) taking the seasonal price swings in oil, re-election cycle seasonality and price action of oil stocks I feel oil will trade sideways or down from here. With that being said, expect crude oil to rally during the last week of the year. I hope this provides some useful info for your trading!

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Chris Vermeulen is Founder of the popular trading analysis website The Gold & Oil Guy.com. There he shares his highly successful, low risk trade ideas. Since 2001 Chris has been a leader in teaching others to skillfully trade Currencies, Stock Indices, Bonds, Metals, Energies, Commodities, and Exchange Traded Funds.

Is Santa Coming Early for Gold & Gold Mining Stocks?

By: Chris Vermeulen at The Gold & Oil Guy.com

If you own physical gold, gold mining stocks or plan on buying anything related to precious metals before year end, you are likely going to get excited because of what my analysis and outlook shows.

Since gold topped abruptly a year ago (Sept 2011) with a massive wave of selling which sent the price of gold from $1920 down to $1535, technical analysts knew that type of damage which had be done to the chart pattern could take a year or more to stabilize before gold would be able to continue higher.

Fast forwarding twelve months to today (Oct 2012). You can see that gold looks to have stabilized and is building a basing pattern (launch pad) for another major rally. The charts illustrated below show my big picture analysis, thoughts and investment idea.

Weekly Spot Gold Chart:
The weekly chart can be a very powerful tool for understanding the overall trend. This chart clearly shows the last major correction and basing pattern in gold back in 2008 – 2009. Right now gold looks to be forming a very similar pattern.

Keep in mind this is a weekly chart and if you compare the 2009 basing pattern to where we are today I still feel it could take 3 – 6 months before gold truly breaks out to the upside and kicks into high gear. The point of this chart is to provide a rough guide for what to expect in the coming weeks and months.




Weekly Chart of Junior Gold Miner Stocks:
If you follow gold closely then you likely already know junior gold mining stocks can lead the price of gold up to two weeks. Meaning gold mining stocks which you can track by looking at GDX and GDXJ exchange traded funds will form strong bullish chart patterns and generally start moving up in price before physical gold.

The chart below shows the junior gold miner ETF with a VERY BULLISH chart and volume pattern. Remember that gold stocks are a leveraged play on gold in most cases. For example, if gold moves up 1% we typically see GDX and GDXJ move 2-4%. Because they act as a leveraged play on physical gold smart money and big institutions start accumulating these investments in anticipation of gold rising.

GDXJ has formed a tight bull flag and the volume levels confirm there is big money moving into these investments. The first price target on GDXJ using technical analysis for a measured move points to the $32 area. Looking forward twelve months with gold trading above $2000 we could see this fund more than double in value.

Bonus: while most traders focus on GDX gold miner fund, I prefer the GDXJ fund because its almost identical in price performance BUT it pays you a 5% dividend....




Gold’s Seasonality: 
It’s that time of year again where gold tends to move higher. Below you can see where we are and what the price of gold typically does in November.




Gold Investing & Trading Conclusion:
Looking forward one month (November) and factoring in the recent pullback in gold to known support levels along with strong buying of junior gold mining stocks, I feel gold will take another run at the $1800 level and for GDXJ to test its previous higher of $25.50 at minimum. If both those levels get taken out then a massive bull market for precious metals could be triggered. Only time will tell.

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Chris Vermeulen

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Cold Snap Expected to Boost Heating Demand....Natural Gas Prices Jump to 11 Month High

Benchmark U.S. natural gas prices rose sharply over the past week, touching the highest levels in nearly 11 months, on expectations colder weather will stoke heating demand, the Energy Information Administration said.

Henry Hub gas as of October 24 was $3.43 per million British thermal units, up 19 cents from a week earlier. Prices at many trading points rose on "news of a coming cold snap," the EIA said. On October 22, Henry Hub gas hit $3.49, the highest since late November.

In NYMEX futures trading October 25, November gas fell 1.6 cents to $3.434, down 5.1% from $3.617 at the end of last week and the lowest settlement in nearly three weeks.

Gas prices were up even as above average temperatures in much of the U.S. tempered consumption. During the week ended October 24, total U.S. gas demand fell 2.9% from the previous week, led by a drop of 4.8% in residential and commercial use, with temperatures averaging about 1 degree Fahrenheit above normal.

Working natural gas in underground storage increased to 3.843 trillion cubic feet as of October 19, an implied net injection of 67 billion cubic feet from the previous week, 4.1% over year ago levels and 7% over the five-year average for that date.

Read the full report

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Commodities Next Week: Hurricane Sandy & Gas Prices

CNBC's Bertha Coombs discusses Friday's activity in the commodities markets and looks ahead to where oil and precious metals are likely headed next week.



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ONG: Crude Oil Prices Recover as Hurricane Sandy Approaches Northeast U.S.

Commodity prices recovered after days of losses. Crude oil prices gained modestly after news reported that Hurricane Sandy headed for the US after impacting Cuba and UK’s GDP turned out better than expected. Meanwhile, sentiment was also lifted as US’ initial jobless claim fell more than consensus, signaling improvement in the employment market. The front month contract for WTI crude oil added +0.37% while the equivalent Brent crude contract climbed +0.59%. Gold also rebounded despite slippage of the euro with the benchmark Comex contract gaining +0.67%.

The US East Coast is threatened by Hurricane Sandy which already killed 21 people across the Caribbean. Meteorologist said that the hurricane would probably grow into a "Frankenstorm" and give the Northeast US the worst hit in 100 years. The market worried that the storm might strengthen further and hurt supply of the gasoline and distillate market. Yet, this might not be able to support for too long as Wednesday’s report showed that oil inventories remained abundant.

In the UK, GDP surprisingly rose +1.0% q/q in 3Q12, following a -0.4% contraction a quarter ago. This was higher than the market forecast of a modest gain of +0.6% and marked the strongest gain since the financial crisis in 2007. In the Eurozone, ECB reported that lending to the private sector fell -0.8% from the same period a year ago. This was the 5th consecutive decline and the steepest since October 2009. As the economy is expected to remain weak for the rest of the year, lending growth is expected to contract further.

In the US, initial jobless claims fell -23K to 369K in the week ended October 20. The 4 week average, however, climbed +2K to 368K as the data in the previous week was revised by +4K to 392K. Continuous claims slipped -2K in the week ended October 13. Durable goods orders soared +9.9% in September, following a -13.2% contraction a month ago. Excluding transportation, the reading gained +2% in September after slipping -1.6% in the prior month. The US GDP probably gained +1.8% in 3Q12, up from +1.3% gain in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan confidence data might be revised down to 83 in October from the flash reading of 83.1.

Posted courtesy of Oil N'Gold.com

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Seadrill SDRL Reaches 64.23% Ownership in Asia Offshore Drilling

After close of trading on Oslo Børs on 25 October 2012 Seadrill Limited ("Seadrill") has acquired 12,190,858 shares of Asia Offshore Drilling Limited (the "Company", OSE: AOD). The shares were acquired at a price of US$5.0 per share (equals NOK28.71 based on the USD/NOK exchange rate set by the Norwegian Central Bank on 25 October).

Following this acquisition, Seadrill will be the owner of 25,690,958 shares in the Company, corresponding to 64.23% of the total number of outstanding shares in the Company. As a consequence, Seadrill will proceed with the launch of a mandatory cash offer for the remaining shares in the Company. Such mandatory offer will be launched as soon as practicably possible, within the time limits set out in chapter 6 of the Norwegian Securities Trading Act.

RS Platou Markets AS act as financial advisor to Seadrill in connection with the offer.


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ConocoPhillips Reports Third Quarter Earnings

ConocoPhillips (COP) today reported third quarter 2012 earnings of $1.8 billion, or $1.46 per share, compared with third quarter 2011 earnings of $2.6 billion, or $1.91 per share.

Excluding special items of $26 million, third-quarter 2012 adjusted earnings were $1.8 billion, or $1.44 per share, compared with third quarter 2011 adjusted earnings of $1.9 billion, or $1.40 per share. Special items for the current quarter were primarily related to net gains on asset sales offset by the impact of tax law changes in the United Kingdom and pension settlement expense.

Highlights

* Quarterly production of 1.525 million BOE per day.
* Continued ramp up in Eagle Ford and Bakken.
* Ongoing growth from Canadian oil sands and successful startup of Christina Lake Phase D.
* Major projects and drilling programs on schedule to deliver volume and margin growth.
* Completed turnarounds at major worldwide facilities, as planned.
* Ramping up exploration activity in conventional and unconventional opportunities globally.
* Completed sale of NMNG and dilution of interest in APLNG.

“We performed well in our first full quarter as an independent E&P company,” said Ryan Lance, chairman and chief executive officer. “Our production was on target, our growth projects and drilling programs are on track and our portfolio optimization plans continue to progress. Quarterly production, excluding the impact of dispositions, grew by 40 thousand BOE per day compared to the third quarter of 2011.”

“For the first nine months of 2012, we have generated $2.1 billion in proceeds from asset dispositions and remain on track to complete our $8-$10 billion disposition program by the end of 2013,” Lance added. “We are focused on delivering average annual production growth and margin growth of 3 to 5 percent, improving our financial returns, and offering a sector leading dividend.”

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EIA: Natural Gas Processing Plant Data Now Available

In the wake of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, which severely disrupted natural gas infrastructure in the Gulf Coast region, EIA established a triennial survey of natural gas processing plants (EIA-757) to be used as a baseline for assessing the effect of extreme weather on natural gas processing infrastructure. This past summer, EIA activated the baseline survey (EIA-757, Schedule A), the results of which are published in EIA's Natural Gas Annual Respondent Query System.

The EIA-757 survey has a baseline portion, Schedule A, to track the country's population of natural gas plants, and an emergency activation portion, Schedule B, to provide the operational status of processing plants in an area affected by a supply disruption, usually a natural disaster such as a hurricane. In August, EIA activated Schedule B to track shut in capacity caused by Hurricane Isaac. EIA used the information collected on EIA-757B to provide daily updates to the Department of Energy's Situation Report and to write a brief retrospective for Today in Energy.

 

Data from EIA-757 Schedule A show 517 active natural gas processing plants in the Lower 48 states, with a total processing capacity of 65.5 billion cubic feet per day. Not all processing plants run at full capacity all the time. On average, these plants processed about 44.7 billion cubic feet per day, operating at about 68% of capacity. Plants operate at less than capacity for many reasons: transportation constraints, varying input supplied from wells, and regional economics.

Processing plants are midstream facilities that separate natural gas liquids (NGL) from natural gas. Gas processing plants often perform several other functions, as well: dehydration, contaminant removal, and sometimes fractionation (separating an NGL stream into its component products). This survey is not a complete picture of processing capabilities, nor does it represent all processing plants that touch natural gas before it becomes pipeline-quality gas. At the well site, some upstream field processing may be done to remove condensate before gas is sent to a midstream processing plant for NGL extraction. In addition, gas producers may use dehydration units (to remove water) and amine treaters (to remove hydrogen sulfide and carbon dioxide).

Downstream from natural gas processing plants, the combined NGL stream is often broken into separate NGL products (ethane, propane, butane, iso-butane, pentane) by a fractionator. Sometimes straddle plants located on large pipelines will extract small quantities of NGL that remain in the stream even after processing. Similarly, newer, more efficient cryogenic plants may also sit downstream of other processing plants to strip out lighter NGLs that are left in the gas stream for technological or economic reasons. Most storage facilities also have some processing capabilities to dehydrate gas that is withdrawn from storage. When pipeline-quality natural gas is injected into storage, it mingles with other hydrocarbons or water, which must be removed before the gas can be reintroduced into the pipeline grid.

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National Oilwell Varco NOV Announces Third Quarter 2012 Results

National Oilwell Varco (NOV) today reported that for the third quarter ended September 30, 2012 it earned net income of $612 million, or $1.43 per fully diluted share, compared to second quarter ended June 30, 2012 net income of $605 million, or $1.42 per fully diluted share. Earnings per share increased 14 percent compared to the third quarter 2011 earnings of $1.25 per fully diluted share.

Transaction charges for the third quarter of 2012 were $57 million pre tax. Net income for the third quarter of 2012 excluding transaction charges was $650 million, or $1.52 per fully diluted share. This compares to second quarter of 2012 net income of $626 million, or $1.46 per fully diluted share, and third quarter 2011 net income of $536 million or $1.26 per fully diluted share, excluding transaction charges from all periods.

The Company’s revenues for the third quarter of 2012 were $5.3 billion, an increase of 12 percent from the second quarter of 2012 and an increase of 42 percent from the third quarter of 2011. Operating profit for the third quarter of 2012 was $946 million or 17.8 percent of sales, excluding transaction charges. Sequentially, third quarter operating profit increased four percent, resulting in operating profit flow through (change in operating profit divided by the change in revenue) of seven percent, excluding transaction charges. Year over year third quarter operating profit increased 22 percent, resulting in operating profit flow through of 11 percent, excluding transaction charges.

During the third quarter of 2012 the Company’s Rig Technology segment booked $2.29 billion in new orders. Backlog for capital equipment orders for the Company’s Rig Technology segment at September 30, 2012 was $11.66 billion, up three percent from the end of the second quarter of 2012.

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U.S. shale energy production could support 3.5 million jobs by 2035

API President and CEO Jack Gerard said today that the latest report by IHS Global Insight shows development of America’s unconventional oil and natural gas resources could create nearly 2 million new jobs over the next two decades, reawaken American manufacturing, and provide massive revenues to the government.

"The study highlights the extraordinary opportunities we have right here at home to develop our unconventional oil and gas resources and return our economy to a pro-growth engine,” Gerard said. “Polls show Americans’ top priority is job creation and the oil and natural gas industry will be a driver for those new jobs, with nearly three quarters of a million new jobs added over just the next three years.”

The report, America’s New Energy Future: The Unconventional Oil and Gas Revolution and the U.S. Economy, finds that unconventional oil and natural gas production could produce significant growth in capital expenditures and employment, including:

• More than $5.1 trillion in cumulative capital expenditures by 2035.

• Adding 1.2 million new jobs by 2020, and supporting a total of 3.5 million jobs by 2035.

• Almost $62 billion in additional federal, state and local tax receipts in 2012 and more than $111 billion in 2020, with a total of more than $2.5 trillion in cumulative added revenues between 2012 and 2035.

The report was sponsored by API, the Institute for 21st Century Energy, the American Chemistry Council, and the Natural Gas Supply Association.


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