This Weeks Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Weekly Technical Outlook

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Time for our weekly call from the great staff at Oil N'Gold.Com. Do they think the bulls are still in charge?.......

100 psychological level proved to be a difficult level for crude oil to break through. Last week's sharp decline and break of 94.08 support indicates that rebound from 77.28 has finished at 100.42 already. Deeper decline should be seen in near term back to 61.8% retracement of 77.28 to 100.42 at 86.12 and possibly below. Though, we'd expect strong support ahead of 77.28 to contain downside. Another rally is anticipated for 110.55 after completing the current consolidation.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 114.83 are a triangle consolidation pattern. Fall from 100.42 is likely the fifth and the last leg of such consolidation. Having said that, downside should be contained above 77.28 and bring an upside breakout eventually. Break of 110.55 will strongly suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for above 114.83.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

Natural gas retreated last week but managed to hold well above 2.575 support and recovered. Overall development suggests firstly that price actions from 3.277 are corrective in nature. Secondly, there is no clear sign of breakout yet and more sideway trading could be seen in near term inside 2.575/3.277 range. Though, an upside break would be mildly in favor.

In the bigger picture, firstly, natural gas is still being supported by 50% retracement of 1.902 to 3.277 at 2.590. Secondly, price actions from 3.277 are corrective looking. The development indicates that rebound from 1.902 isn't over yet. Another rally will likely have 3.255 support turned resistance taken out decisively. And in that case, medium term decline from 6.108 should be confirmed to have completed. And, stronger rally would be seen back to 4.983 resistance and possibly above. This is now the preferred scenario as long as 2.575 support holds.

In the longer term picture, as long as 3.255 resistance holds, whole down trend from 13.694 (2008 high) is still in progress, so is that from 15.78 (2005 high). Another fall could be seen to 1999 low of 1.62 on resumption. But decisive break of 3.255 will now be an important sign of long term bottoming,

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

Gold edged higher to 1790 last week but lost much momentum ahead of 1792.7/1804.4 resistance zone. Nonetheless, as long as 1720 minor support holds, current rise is still expected to continue. Decisive break of 1792.7/1804.4 resistance zone will have larger bullish implication and would pave the way to 1923.7 historical high. Though, break of 1720 will indicate near term reversal and will turn outlook bearish for 1674/1 support first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1923.7 high are viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that such consolidation is finished, and more range trading could be seen. In any case, downside of any falling leg should be contained by 1478.3/1577.4 support zone and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 1792.7/1804.4 resistance zone will argue that the long term uptrend is possibly resuming for a new high above 1923.7.

In the long term picture, with 1478.3 support intact, there is no change in the long term bullish outlook in gold. While some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psychological level in the long run

Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

SeaDrill is at it again....files for a new IPO, SDLP

COT fund favorite SeaDrill [ticker SDRL] is at it again as today the file with the SEC for a new IPO. SDLP, a new limited liability corporation.

Seadrill Partners, who owns and operates offshore drilling rigs, files for an IPO under the ticker SDLP with a proposed maximum offering price of $225 million. SDLP operating revenues moved to $497 million in FY11 from $478 million in FY10. For H1 2012 revenues improved 11% to $275 million.

Seadrill Partners said it is an “emerging growth company” that currently has long term contracts with oil majors Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), Total SA (NYSE: TOT), BP plc (NYSE: BP), and Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM). Seadrill is majority owned by the Fredriksen Group, which also owns majority interests in Golar LNG Ltd. (NASDAQ: GLNG), Golar LNG Partners LP (NASDAQ: GMLP), and Frontline Ltd. (NYSE: FRO).

Seadrill Ltd. will own 70% of the common units of Seadrill Partners following the IPO. The new company also plans “to make accretive acquisitions of drilling rigs from Seadrill and third parties” under an agreement that will give Seadrill Partners a first right to purchase additional interests in a jointly owned operating company and “a right to purchase any drilling rigs acquired or placed under contracts of five or more years after the closing date of this offering.”

According to the filing, Seadrill Partners will use the proceeds from the filing “as consideration for the acquisition of our interest in [the jointly owned operating company] from Seadrill.”

This was just announced today so we still don't have it sorted out but anything SeaDrill is sure to get investors attention.

Here is the complete SEC filing.

Update/Edit for Monday Sept. 24th....

Hamilton, Bermuda, September 21, 2012 - Seadrill Partners LLC ("Seadrill Partners") announced today that it has filed a registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") for an initial public offering of Seadrill Partners' common units. Seadrill Partners has applied to list its common units on The New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "SDLP".

Seadrill Partners was formed by Seadrill Limited to own, operate and acquire offshore drilling rigs under long-term contracts. Seadrill Partners' initial fleet will consist of two semi-submersible rigs (West Capricorn and West Aquarius), one drillship (West Capella) and one tender rig (West Vencedor).

Citigroup will act as the lead book running manager of the offering.

The offering of the common units will be made only by means of a prospectus. A written prospectus meeting the requirements of Section 10 of the Securities Act of 1933, when available, may be obtained from the offices of Citigroup Global Markets, Inc., Attention: Prospectus Department, Brooklyn Army Terminal, 140 58th Street, 8th Floor, Brooklyn, NY 11220, Email: BATProspectusdept@citi.com, Telephone: 800-831-9146.

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EIA Natural Gas Weekly Report For Thursday Sept. 20th

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Let's take a look at the EIA's overview for natural gas for the Week Ending Wednesday, September 19, 2012.....

* Natural gas prices declined at most trading locations this week, erasing gains from last week. The spot price at the Henry Hub fell from $2.96 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday, September 12, to $2.70 per MMBtu yesterday, September 19.

* Natural gas futures prices declined along with spot prices. The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) near month contract (October 2012) fell from $3.063 per MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.762 per MMBtu yesterday.

* Working natural gas in storage rose last week to 3,496 Bcf as of Friday, September 14, according to EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR). An implied storage build of 67 Bcf for the week positioned storage volumes 320 Bcf above year ago levels.

* The natural gas rotary rig count, as reported by Baker Hughes Incorporated on September 14, fell by 4 to 448 active units.

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Bearish Inventory Report Sends Crude oil Prices Lower

The downside correction to oil prices moved into a third day with a bearish weekly oil inventory snapshot adding a bit more selling momentum. In fact oil prices are now at the lowest level they have been at in about six weeks. Certainly the post QE3 euphoria has been pushing oil prices lower but today's huge crude oil build was a catalyst for a strong round of not only profit taking selling but I suspect some new shorts coming into the market.

It does not happen very often in the oil complex but the current fundamentals have trumped all of other short term price catalysts today sending prices into a bit of a tailspin. It certainly changes the short term dynamics for me and as such we may see the downside move last a bit longer than I was originally expecting. The buy the dip mentality that I thought might come as early as this week may now be postponed until next week at the earliest.

In addition to the surprisingly large crude oil build the Saudi oil ministers comments from last week are still hanging over the market. He said global supply, demand and inventories do not justify the current price (around $100/bbl last week). The Saudis have been working with Kuwait the UAE and other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council to keep production at high levels to discourage higher prices. Saudi production is over 10 million barrels per day and at the highest level in years.

It is also serving to offset the 1 million barrels per day or so of lost Iranian crude oil production due to the sanctions.....Read Dominick Chirichellas entire article.

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Exxon [XOM] Applies for a Natural Gas Export License

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The natural gas revolution has yielded many benefits to America in terms of its economy, environment, and energy security....

* Job creation
* Lower home heating bills
* Lower feedstock costs for the petrochemical and refining businesses
* Reduction in the number of active coal plants
* Increased U.S. energy security

Low domestic natural gas prices have given the U.S. a clear competitive advantage in the world economy. Consider the price differential in this chart, taken from the Wall Street Journal's recent article Should the U.S. Export Natural Gas?, which compares U.S. nat gas prices to those of Japan and Korea.

The current price of natural gas is unsustainable. Companies will either shut-in production until it becomes more profitable, or significant new demand will be created. Exxon Mobil (XOM), struggling to reap the rewards of its massive XTO takeover and the subsequent drop in nat gas prices, has recently applied for a natural gas export license. The question the U.S. Department of Energy faces (or at least should face...) becomes.... is exporting natural gas smart, strategic energy policy?

Exporting natural gas would be good in a number of ways including....Read the Michael Fitzsimmons entire article.

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Kazakhstan as an oil producer....a bigger player then you probably think

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Kazakhstan, an oil producer since 1911, has the second largest oil reserves as well as the second largest oil production among the former Soviet republics after Russia....

With total liquids production estimated at 1.6 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2012, Kazakhstan is a major producer; however, key to its continued growth in liquids production will be the development of its giant Tengiz, Karachaganak, and Kashagan fields. Furthermore, development of additional export capacity will be necessary for production growth.

Rising natural gas production over the last decade has transformed Kazakhstan from a net gas importer to a country that as of 2011 was self sufficient. Natural gas development has lagged oil due to the lack of domestic gas pipeline infrastructure linking the western producing region with the eastern industrial region, as well as the lack of export pipelines.

Kazakhstan is land locked and lies a great distance from international oil markets. The lack of access to a seaport makes the country dependent mainly on pipelines to transport its hydrocarbons to world markets. It is also a transit state for pipeline exports from Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Neighbors China and Russia are key economic partners, providing sources of export demand and government project financing.....Read the entire EIA article.

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Has the Arab Spring Effected Crude Oil Prices?

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Crude oil prices hit a four month high this week on the back of rising tensions in the Middle East and North Africa and the unfortunate murder of the U.S. ambassador to Libya. Added impetus on the upside was given to oil by the announcement of more money printing (QE3) by the Federal Reserve which said it would launch an open ended commitment to purchase $40 billion of mortgage backed securities monthly. The global benchmark for oil, Brent crude oil, jumped to about $117 a barrel.

It maintained its roughly $18 premium to U.S. based WTI crude oil which was trading at $100 a barrel on a couple days ago. Non futures investors can easily participate in the oil market through the use of exchange traded funds. The ETF which tracks Brent crude oil futures is the United States Brent Oil Fund (NYSE: BNO) and the ETF which tracks WTI crude oil futures is the United States Oil Fund (NYSE: USO). The real story behind the story in the oil market, however, is the ongoing Arab Spring which is sweeping throughout the Middle East and North Africa, pushing aside some regimes and threatening others.

The countries whose governments, such as Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states, feel threatened by popular uprisings are where investors should put their focus. Saudi Arabia in particular is key because it accounts for more three quarters of the world’s spare oil production capacity. So it is very important to note that the kingdom is no longer a price ‘dove’ in OPEC as it has been for decades. It has joined Iran, Venezuela and others in being a price ‘hawk’. The reason behind the change in attitude is simple…Arab Spring. Like its neighbors in the Gulf region, Saudi Arabia has gone on a public spending spree to appease its restless citizens.

It has sharply increased outlays on subsidies for items like food, fuel and housing in an attempt to appease its citizens. In 2011, the kingdom raised its domestic spending by $129 billion – the equivalent of more than half its oil revenues. Much of this increased spending will go toward upgrading the country’s infrastructure. Take electricity, for example. Saudi Arabia has revealed plans to spend more than $100 billion dollars on power plants and distribution networks by 2020. The kingdom has also set a goal to electrify 500,000 new homes that are being built in an attempt to mollify political unrest among its population of 27 million people.

This spending spree led the International Monetary Fund and other analysts to estimate that the kingdom and other Gulf countries need oil to be selling between $80 and $85 a barrel in order for the governments to balance their budgets. This is up, in Saudi Arabia’s case, from a mere $25 a barrel a few short years ago! Unfortunately for oil consumers, this trend looks set to continue in years ahead.

According to the Institute of International Finance, by 2015 the Saudi government will only be able to balance its budget if oil prices are at $115 a barrel if current spending trends remain in place. So in effect, with the Arab Spring forcing governments to spend more on their citizens, it has put a floor under the price of oil. OPEC will do everything in its power to keep the price above the budget breakeven points for governments in the Gulf region.

Keep up to speed on the oil and precious metals markets 

with my free newsletter at www.Gold & Oil Guy.com

Chris Vermeulen

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Crude Oil Tumbles 2.4% in Sharp, Late Session Drop

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U.S. crude futures took a violent tumble Monday, dropping more than $3 in less than a minute on a huge spike in trading volume, shaking broader markets and sparking confusion across trading floors. At 1:54 p.m. EDT, light, sweet crude for October delivery plummeted to a low of $94.83 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after trading above $98 a barrel throughout the session. Volume surged to more than 12,500 contracts in a minute, after trading near 100 contracts for most of the session.

The decline took investors by surprise across markets, leading to sharp drops in stocks, the euro and other commodities. CME Group Inc. (CME) said there were no technical trading issues involved in the selloff, and the lack of a discernable reason for the decline sent traders scrambling to the phones looking for answers. "Traders were looking like deer in the headlights," said Peter Donovan, a Nymex floor trader at Vantage Trading. "It was just confusion as traders were scrambling. I called four different desks, and they all said, 'we don't know.'"

U.S. crude futures pared some losses to settle $2.38, or 2.4%, lower at $96.62 a barrel, the lowest in a week. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange settled $2.87 lower at $113.79 a barrel. The sharp slump comes amid growing jitters among analysts, traders and other market watchers, fearful that renewed turmoil in the Middle East, particularly surrounding Israel and Iran, could quickly lead to big moves in the oil pits.

"The market is just showing its vulnerability. We've got a $10 to $15 premium just on Iran, so the market is susceptible to just come off," said Tony Rosado, a broker at Dorado Energy Services. Gen. Mohamad Ali Jafari, head of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps., said Sunday if Iran was attacked, the country would retaliate against U.S. bases in the Middle East and Israel, and aim to disrupt oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Agence-France Presse.

Meanwhile, on Sunday Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called for the U.S. to establish a "red line" on Iran's nuclear program that would result in a military response. Conversely, the potential for a release of strategic stockpiles by the U.S. to combat high prices has raised fears of sharp declines. On Monday, rumors quickly circulated that a strategic release was behind the sharp slump. But a White House official said the administration currently has no plan to release oil from the 700 million barrel Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

"As we have made clear, all options remain on the table, but we have nothing to announce at this time," the official said. Front month October reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, settled 2.4% lower at $2.9433 a gallon. October heating oil dropped 2.4% to $3.1634 a gallon.

Posted courtesy of Rigzone.Com

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Projected Alaska North Slope Oil Production at Risk Beyond 2025 if Oil Prices Drop Sharply

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Oil production on Alaska's North Slope, which has been declining since 1988 when average annual production peaked at 2.0 million barrels per day, is transported to market through the TransAlaska Pipeline System (TAPS). Because TAPS needs to maintain throughput above a minimum threshold level to remain operational, its projected lifetime depends on continued investment in North Slope oil production that itself depends on future oil prices. In the Annual Energy Outlook 2012 low oil price case, North Slope production would cease and TAPS would be decommissioned, which could occur as early as 2026.

The 48 inch diameter, 800-mile long TAPS crude oil pipeline transports North Slope crude oil south to the Valdez Marine Terminal, where the oil is then shipped by tankers to West Coast refineries. TAPS is currently the only means for transporting North Slope crude oil to refineries and the petroleum consumption markets they serve.



Low flow rates on crude oil pipelines can cause operational issues, particularly in the frigid Arctic. On June 15, 2011, the TAPS operator, Alyeska Pipeline Service Company, released the TAPS Low Flow Impact Study that identified the following problems that might occur as North Slope oil production progressively declines below 600,000 bbl/d, thereby resulting in declining TAPS throughput:

* Potential water dropout from the crude oil, which could cause pipeline corrosion

* Potential ice formation in the pipe if the oil temperature were to drop below freezing

* Potential wax precipitation and deposition

* Potential displacement of the buried pipeline due to soil freezing and thawing, as pipeline operating temperatures decline

Other potential operational issues at low flow rates include: sludge drop-out, reduced ability to remove wax, reduction in pipeline leak detection efficiency, pipeline shutdown and restart, and the running of pipeline pigs that both clean and check pipeline integrity.

The severity of potential TAPS operational problems is expected to increase as throughput declines; the onset of TAPS low flow problems could begin around 550,000 bbl/d, absent any mitigation. As the types and severity of problems multiplies, the investment required to mitigate those problems is expected to increase significantly. Because of the many and diverse operational problems expected to occur below 350,000 bbl/d, considerable investment might be required to keep the pipeline operational below this throughput level.

Analysis of Alaskan production in the Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (AEO2012) assumed that the North Slope oil fields would be shutdown, plugged, and abandoned and TAPS would be decommissioned, when two conditions were simultaneously satisfied: 1) TAPS throughput was at or below 350,000 bbl/d and 2) total North Slope oil production revenues were at or below $5.0 billion per year. These conditions are satisfied only in the AEO2012 low oil price case, when North Slope oil production is shutdown and TAPS is decommissioned in 2026.

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ONG Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Weekly Technical Outlook for Saturday Sept. 15th

Well, it's Saturday and that means it's time to check in with the staff at Oil N Gold and get their call on crude for this week......

Crude oil's rally finally resumed last week and breached 100 psychological level before closing at 99.06. Near term outlook stays bullish as long as 94.08 support holds. Current rise is expected to continue higher. However, as noted before, rise from 77.28 is viewed as the fourth leg inside the triangle pattern from 114.83. Hence, we'll be cautious on topping between 100 and 110. Meanwhile, break of 92.94 will indicate reversal and bring decline back to 55 days EMA and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 114.83 are viewed either a three wave consolidation pattern that's completed at 77.28, or a five wave triangle pattern that's still unfolding. In any case, break of 110.55 resistance will strongly suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for above 114.83. While another fall could be seen before an eventual upside breakout, downside should be contained above 77.28 support.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

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Natural gas jumped to as high as 3.070 last week and the development firstly suggests that fall from 3.277 has completed at 2.575. More importantly, the corrective three wave structure of the fall argues that natural gas hasn't topped yet. Further rally is mildly in favor this week and break of 3.070 will target a test on 3.277 resistance. Meanwhile, break of 2.888 resistance turned support will mix up the near term outlook and turn focus back to 2.575. In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain above 3.255 support turned resistance didn't confirm medium term trend reversal. That is, whole decline from 6.108 could still extend and a break below 2.168 will pave the way to a new low below 1.902. Nonetheless, again, sustained break of 3.255 will confirm trend reversal and a test on 4.983 key resistance level should at least be seen.

In the longer term picture, as long as 3.255 resistance holds, whole down trend from 13.694 (2008 high) is still in progress, so is that from 15.78 (2005 high). Another fall could be seen to 1999 low of 1.62 on resumption. But decisive break of 3.255 will now be an important sign of long term bottoming,

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

Your kidding right....How can I not be endorsing this?

Gold's rally continued last week and reached as high as 1780.2 so far. Near term outlook remains bullish with focus on 1792.7/1804.4 resistance zone. Decisive break there will have larger bullish implication and would pave the way to 1923.7 historical high. Nonetheless, before that, rise from 1526.7 is viewed as a leg inside the medium term ranging pattern only. Below 1720 minor support will indicate reversal and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1923.7 high are viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that such consolidation is finished, and more range trading could be seen. In any case, downside of any falling leg should be contained by 1478.3/1577.4 support zone and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 1792.7/1804.4 resistance zone will argue that the long term uptrend is possibly resuming for a new high above 1923.7.

In the long term picture, with 1478.3 support intact, there is no change in the long term bullish outlook in gold. While some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psychological level in the long run

Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

What is the Gold and Oil Guys call this week?