Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Crude Oil, Natural Gas and U.S Dollar Commentary For Wednesday Evening

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 75.72 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, last July's low crossing at 66.11 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 74.96. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 75.72. First support is Monday's low crossing at 69.51. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 67.15.

Natural gas closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If July extends this week's rally, the 50% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.151 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.413 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.995. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.151. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.539. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.413.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and turning neutral hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.85 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If June extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 88.80. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 89.71. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 87.35. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.85.

Gold closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday hinting that a double top with May's high could have been posted today. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extends this week's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 1198.10 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1254.50. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1217.60. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 1198.10.

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