Sunday, June 13, 2010

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Sunday June 13th

Crude oil extended the consolidation from 64.24 and edged higher to 76.30 last week. Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that price actions from 64.24 are merely consolidation to fall from 87.15. Hence, even though another rise cannot be ruled out, we'd expect strong resistance at 61.8% retracement of 87.15 to 64.23 at 78.39 and bring fall resumption. Below 69.51 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 64.24 low first.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 68.59/69.50 support zone affirms our view that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.15 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least. Also, as rebound from 33.2 is viewed as as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27, we'd anticipate a break of 33.2 low in the longer term. On the upside, break of resistance at 78 level is needed to be indicate that fall from 87.15 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.

In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Our view is that fall fro 87.15 would develop into the third falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and hence, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 33.2 low in the long term as such correction extends.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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