Saturday, July 17, 2010

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook

Crude oil edged higher to 78.15 last week but failed to sustain gain there. With 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, initial bias is neutral this week. While another rise cannot be ruled out with 74.23 minor support intact. We'd continue to expect upside to be limited by 79.38 resistance and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 74.23 will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 71.09 will confirm that fall from 79.38 has resumed. Also this will affirm our view that choppy recovery from 64.23 has completed at 79.38 already and should target 64.23 support next.

In the bigger picture, recovery from 64.23 is treated as a correction to fall from 87.15 and has possibly completed at 79.38 already. Break of 71.09 support will indicate that decline from 87.15 is likely resuming. This will also revive the bearish case that whole medium term rise from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. In such case, we'd see another fall to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least.

In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Our view is that fall fro 87.15 would develop into the third falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and hence, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 33.2 low in the long term as such correction extends.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

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