Saturday, November 13, 2010

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday Nov. 13th

Crude oil edged higher to 88.63 last week but formed a short term top there and pulled back. Initial bias remains mildly on the downside this week for deeper decline to correct whole rise from 70.76. Nevertheless, strong support should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 70.76 to 88.63 at 81.80 and bring another rise. Whole rally from 64.23 is still expected to continue to 90 psychological level and above.

In the bigger picture, rise whole medium term rebound from 33.2 is still in progress. Such rise is treated as the second wave of the consolidation pattern that started at 147.27. Further rise could still be be seen towards 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 103.70. However, break of 70.76 support will be the first warning that crude oil has topped out. Further break of 64.23 support will confirm and turn outlook bearish to start another medium term decline.

In the long term picture, rebound from 33.2 is not finished yet. But overall view remains unchanged. Crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2, second wave from there unfolding. Current development suggests that a breach of 61.8% retracement at 103.70 is likely. But we'll then start to focus on reversal signal again above 103.70.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts




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