Friday, October 21, 2011

Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Market Commentary For Friday Oct. 21st

Crude oil opened higher this morning but remains below the May-July downtrend line crossing near 87.23. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

If December extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 90.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.52 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 90.65 Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 95.39

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 86.26
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.52

Crude oil pivot point for Friday morning is 85.80

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Natural gas was lower overnight as it extends this week's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above Monday's high crossing at 3.777 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If November renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 3.225 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 3.859 Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.926

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.446
Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.225

Natural gas pivot point for Fridays trading is 3.642

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Gold started the day sharply higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline.

Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends this week's decline, September's low crossing at 1535.00 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 1696.80 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1696.80
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of September's decline crossing at 1729.40

First support is September's low crossing at 1535.00
Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1476.20
Gold pivot point for Friday morning is 1621.40

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