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Sunday, April 15, 2012

ONG: Gold Weekly Technical Outlook For Sunday April 15th

Gold's rebound last week was limited at 1681.3 and retreated. With 4 hours MACD crossed below signa line, initial bias is mildly on the downside this week. Also, note that with 1696.9 resistance intact, near term outlook remains bearish and fall from 1792.7 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1613 will target 1523.9 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, price actions form 1923.7 high are viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern. Fall from 1792.7 is viewed as one of the falling leg inside the pattern and should head back to 1478.3/1577.4 support zone. Nonetheless, we'd still expect strong support from 1478.3/1577.4 support zone to contain downside to finish the consolidation and bring up trend resumption to another high above 1923.7 eventually. On the upside, break of 1696.9 resistance will now argue that fall from 1792.7 is finished and turn focus back to this resistance instead.

In the long term picture, with 1478.3 support intact, there is no change in the long term bullish outlook in gold. While some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psychological level in the long run

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