Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Crude Oil Closes Lower, Natural Gas Higher on Short Covering


Crude oil closed lower on Tuesday as it extended this month's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If August extends the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 54.97 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 66.40 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 62.82
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 66.40

First support is Monday's low crossing at 58.32
Second support is the 62% retracement level crossing at 54.97

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Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.775 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August extends this summer's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.155 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.48
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.78

First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.23
Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.16

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