Crude Oil, Gold and Natural Gas Mid Week Market Commentary For Wednesday January 18th

Crude oil [March contract] closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If March extends last week's decline, December's low crossing at 92.95 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2011 decline crossing at 105.23 is the next upside target. First resistance is this month's high crossing at 103.90. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2011 decline crossing at 105.23. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 97.93. Second support is December's low crossing at 92.95.

February natural gas posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it extends the multi year decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If February extends the aforementioned decline, monthly support crossing at 2.409 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.966 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 2.819. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.967. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 2.439. Second support is monthly support crossing at 2.409.

Gold closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the September-December decline crossing at 1678.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1614.30 would temper the near term friendly outlook. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1670.80. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the September-December decline crossing at 1678.70. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1614.30. Second support is December's low crossing at 1526.20.


Gold Trend Forecast for the 1st Quarter of 2012