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Saturday, January 12, 2013

Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Weekly Technical Outlook for January 12th

It's that time of the week when we check in with the great staff at Oil N' Can crude oil stay in a bullish pattern? Let's see how ONG will be trading crude oil, natural gas and gold this week.....

Crude oil rose further to as as high as 94.70 last week and and breached 61.8% retracement of 100.42 to 84.05 at 94.17 before retreating mildly. Near term outlook stays bullish as long as 91.52 minor support holds. Sustained trading above 94.17 will pave the way for a retest on 100.42 key resistance level. However, note bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Break of 91.52 will argue that a short term top is formed and bring pull back to 90 psychological level and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 114.83 are viewed as a triangle consolidation pattern, no change in this view. Fall from 100.42 is likely the fifth and the last leg of such consolidation. Having said that, downside should be contained above 77.28 and bring an upside breakout eventually. Break of 100.42 resistance will strongly suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for above 114.83.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

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Natural gas attempted to resume recent fall last week but was contained above 3.05 support and recovered again. Initial bias remains neutral this week as consolidation from 3.05 might extend further. But overall outlook remains unchanged. Considering that it's limited by medium term falling trend line, whole rally from 1.902 might be finished at 3.93 already. Near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 3.507 resistance holds. Current decline should target 61.8% retracement of 1.902 to 3.933 at 2.678 on break of 3.05.

In the bigger picture, the bounce off from the long term falling channel resistance for 6.108 retained the case that such decline isn't finished. Break of 2.575 support should make a new low below 1.902 to extend the whole long term down trend. Nonetheless, strong rebound from 2.575, followed by break of 3.933 resistance, will revive that case of long term reversal and target a test on 4.983 key resistance.

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

Gold's recovery from 1626 extended further last week as consolidation continued. But with 1695.4 resistance holds, deeper fall is still expected. Below 1626 will extend the whole decline from 1798.1 to 1478.3/1577.4 support zone. On the upside, though, break of 1695.4 will indicate reversal and bring stronger rebound back to 1755.0 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1923.7 high are viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that such consolidation is finished, and more range trading could be seen. In any case, downside of any falling leg should be contained by 1478.3/1577.4 support zone and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 1792.7/1804.4 resistance zone will argue that the long term up trend is possibly resuming for a new high above 1923.7.

In the long term picture, with 1478.3 support intact, there is no change in the long term bullish outlook in gold. While some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psychological level in the long run.

Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

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