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Thursday, January 24, 2013

Natural Gas Futures Lower after Inventory Report

A bullish weekly inventory report was not enough to push the Nat Gas futures market back into positive territory nor was the latest NOAA short term weather forecast which was more supportive than the previous day's forecast. The Nat Gas market may be slowly moving into a mode of too little too late so to speak as February is the only month of the remaining winter heating season that is currently projected to experience winter like weather over major portions of the country.

NOAA's six to ten day and eight to fourteen day forecasts are both showing a larger portion of the country expecting more winter like weather especially in the 8 to fourteen day forecast. At the moment both of these forecasts are starting to line up with the 90 day forecast for the month of February issued about a week or so ago. Next week's inventory withdrawal will be bullish versus both the previous year and the more normal five year average.

If the actual weather is in sync with NOAA latest short term forecasts the withdrawals should come in around normal maybe a bit higher through the first week of February. However, as I have been indicating for weeks the winter heating season is running out of time to have a major impact on the ending inventory levels at the end of the heating season.....continue reading.

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