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Sunday, February 17, 2013

Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Weekly Technical Outlook for Sunday February 17th

It's Sunday and that means it's time to check in with our friends at Oil N' and get their call on crude oil, natural gas and gold......

Crude oil stayed in range below 98.24 last week. With daily MACD staying below signal line, 98.24 should be a short term top and deeper decline is in favor. Below 94.97 will confirm this case and should bring deeper pull back to 55 days EMA (now at 92.47) and below. On the upside, break of 98.24 is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, near term outlook is neutral at best.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 114.83 are viewed as a triangle consolidation pattern, no change in this view. And, such consolidation could still be in progress and Crude oil remains bounded in the converging range. Nonetheless, the pattern should be close to completion and an upside breakout should be seen soon. Above 100.42 will strongly suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for above 114.83. And in case of another fall, strong support should be seen above 77.28 to bring rebound.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

Natural gas finally broke through the medium term rising trend line last week and closed below. The development suggest that whole up trend from 1.1902 has completed at 3.933 after hitting long term channel resistance. Further decline is now expected as long as 3.323 minor resistance holds, to 3.05 first. Break will resume the whole decline from 3.933 and should target 100% projection of 3.933 to 3.05 from 3.645 at 2.762 next.

In the bigger picture, the bounce off from the long term falling channel resistance for 6.108 retained the case that such decline isn't finished. Break of 2.575 support should make a new low below 1.902 to extend the whole long term down trend. Nonetheless, strong rebound from 2.575, followed by break of 3.933 resistance, will revive that case of long term reversal and target a test on 4.983 key resistance.

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

Gold dropped sharply last week, especially on Friday and breached 1600 level before closing at 1610.3. The development is confirmed with the view that fall from 1798.1 is still in progress. Near term outlook stays bearish as long as 1651 minor resistance holds. Current decline should target a test on 1526.7 low next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1923.7 high are viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that such consolidation is finished, and more range trading could be seen. In any case, downside of any falling leg should be contained by 1478.3/1577.4 support zone and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 1792.7/1804.4 resistance zone will argue that the long term up trend is possibly resuming for a new high above 1923.7.

In the long term picture, with 1478.3 support intact, there is no change in the long term bullish outlook in gold. While some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psychological level in the long run

Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hour, daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

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