Crude oil futures in the August contract are down $1.00 at 101.93 a barrel and I am currently recommending a short position as prices have hit a 4 week low while placing your stop at the 2 week high of 106.10 risking around $4,000 from today’s price levels as the commodity markets in general have turned extremely bearish as deflation is a short term concern as prices are trading below their 20 day but still above their 100 day moving average telling you the trend is mixed as the chart structure will improve on a daily basis so I remain bearish.
Problems in Iraq have basically gone on the back burner and not talked about as much as it was a couple weeks back when prices hit new highs at 107 as prices are down over $2 for the trading week with the next major support around 101 and if that level is broken I think you could trade between 96 – 98 here in the short term. Crude oil prices have rallied from $90 in January all the way up to 107 as many of the commodity markets rallied early in 2014 but that has changed in recent weeks as many of the agricultural markets have absolutely plunged as I think that will start to pressure crude oil prices also due to the fact that the Federal Reserve is cutting back on the quantitative easing which is bearish commodities.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
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