Crude Oil in New York Fluctuates as Chinese Imports Gain, Dollar Climbs

Crude oil rose as Chinese crude imports neared a record and the dollar weakened to a 15 month low, buoying demand for commodities. China’s net oil imports were almost 19 million tons, or 4.5 million barrels a day, the second highest level ever, according to data from the Beijing based customs office. Oil rose and gold surged to a record as the dollar’s slide bolstered purchases of raw materials by investors seeking alternative investments. “The Chinese numbers are obviously very supportive,” said John Kilduff, partner at Round Earth Capital, a hedge fund that focuses on food and energy commodity investments, in New York.

“The consistently high import numbers fly in the face of those who say there is nothing fundamental about the rise in oil prices.” Oil for December delivery rose 82 cents, or 1 percent, to $79.87 a barrel at 10:01 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures have climbed 79 percent this year. Chinese imports increased as industrial production soared 16 percent from a year earlier, spurring fuel use. Last month’s net imports were the highest since July’s record 19.2 million barrels. China is the second largest oil consumer after the U.S.....Read the entire article.

Oil Climbs as Dollar Weakens, Tropical Storm Ida Curbs Output

Crude oil rose as a falling dollar bolstered investor demand for commodities and Tropical Storm Ida entered the Gulf of Mexico, forcing BP Plc and Chevron Corp. to cut output. Oil climbed more than $2 after the greenback fell against a basket of six major currencies following a decision by the Group of 20 governments to maintain economic stimulus measures. Workers were evacuated in the region, an area that accounts for 27 percent of U.S. crude production and 15 percent of natural gas output. “The G-20 didn’t comment about the dollar, which indicates that no action will be taken, and the greenback will further deteriorate,” said Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president of energy with MF Global in New York. “A weak dollar translates into higher oil prices.”

Crude oil for December delivery rose $2.01, or 2.6 percent, to $79.44 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices rose as much as 3.6 percent to $80.19, the biggest gain since Sept. 30. Oil is up 78 percent this year. Prices dropped $2.19, or 2.8 percent, to $77.43 on Nov. 6, the lowest settlement since Oct. 30, after a report showed unemployment in the U.S., the world’s biggest energy consuming country, climbed to 10.2 percent, the highest in 26 years......Read the entire post.

EIA Natural Gas Weekly Update

* Natural gas spot prices fell over the week at most market locations, declining on average 16 cents per million Btu (MMBtu). Decreases ranged between 2 cents and 77 cents per MMBtu. In the few trading locations where prices rose, increases were modest, ranging between 1 and 4 cents per MMBtu. The Henry Hub natural gas spot price fell 10 cents on the week, closing at $4.49 per MMBtu.

* At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the December 2009 natural gas contract fell 34 cents per MMBtu, or 7 percent. The November contract expired on Wednesday, October 28, at $4.289 per MMBtu.

* Working natural gas in storage increased to 3,788 billion cubic feet (Bcf) as of October 30, according to EIA�s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report. This figure represents an implied net injection of 29 Bcf. Storage levels reached new record highs in all three storage regions, as well as on a national level.

* The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil contract rose $2.91 per barrel, or 4 percent, ending the report week at $80.30 per barrel, or $13.84 per MMBtu.

* The number of natural gas rotary rigs rose by 3 to 728, according to data Baker Hughes Incorporated released on October 30.



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Crude Oil Climbs the Most in a Month After U.S. Economy Expands

Crude oil rose the most in a month after the U.S. economy grew in the third quarter for the first time in more than a year, spurring optimism that fuel demand will increase. Oil climbed as much as 3.9 percent after the Commerce Department said that the world’s largest energy consuming country expanded at a 3.5 percent annual pace from July through September. The economy was forecast to strengthen at a 3.2 percent annual pace, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

“This confirms that the recession has ended and now the only question is what the pace of the recovery will be,” said Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis. “It would appear that this would lead to increased demand.” Crude oil for December delivery rose $2.71, or 3.5 percent, to $80.17 a barrel at 1:21 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are up 80 percent this year after climbing to a one year high of $82 a barrel on Oct. 21. Prices are heading for the biggest gain since Sept. 30.....Read the entire article.

Crude Oil Tumbles After Unexpected Increase in Gasoline Supply

Crude oil fell more than $2 a barrel after a government report showed an unexpected increase in U.S. gasoline stockpiles and crude supplies rose to a two month high. Gasoline inventories climbed 1.62 million barrels last week, the Energy Department said. A 1 million barrel decline was forecast, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Crude oil inventories rose as imports advanced the first time in five weeks. Oil also dropped as the dollar gained against the euro.

“The gasoline number was a big surprise and makes people less optimistic about the economy and demand,” said Sean Brodrick, natural resource analyst with Weiss Research in Jupiter, Florida. “You are also seeing strength in the dollar, further weakening the oil market.” Crude oil for December delivery fell $2.14, or 2.7 percent, to $77.41 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $77.23, the lowest since Oct. 16. Prices have gained 74 percent from the end of 2008 and reached a one-year.....Read the entire article.

Oil Falls From a One Year High as Stocks Decline, Dollar Climbs

Crude oil fell from a one year high as U.S. equities dropped and the dollar rebounded, reducing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. Oil declined for the first time in nine days as a disappointing report on housing starts overshadowed better than estimated earnings at companies from Apple Inc. to Pfizer Inc. Futures traded above $80 early today as the Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, weakened to its lowest level since August 2008.

“Oil is mainly taking its cue from what’s happening in the financial markets,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates, a Galena, Illinois, consultant. “This shouldn’t be too much of a surprise after the good run we’ve had to the upside.” Crude oil for November delivery fell 81 cents, or 1 percent, to $78.80 a barrel at 10:39 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, prices rose as much as 0.6 percent to $80.05 a barrel, the first time the front-month contract has traded above $80 since Oct. 14, 2008. Futures are heading for the biggest drop since Oct. 7. The November contract expires today. More active December futures declined 84 cents.....Read the entire article.

Crude Oil Rises to One Year High Above $79 as Equities Increase

Crude oil rose to a one year high as advancing global equities bolstered confidence that an economic recovery will lift fuel consumption. Oil topped $79 a barrel, extending its longest winning streak in two years, as U.S. stocks increased, contributing to an advance in equities from Shanghai to London. The dollar weakened, boosting the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. “As long as the dollar stays down and equities stay up, that’s a good enough reason to buy crude,” said Brad Samples, a commodity analyst for Summit Energy Inc. in Louisville, Kentucky.

Crude oil for November delivery rose 28 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $78.81 a barrel at 11:45 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, prices touched $79.05 a barrel, the highest level since Oct. 15, 2008. The November contract expires tomorrow. The more widely held December contract added 18 cents to $79.20 a barrel. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.9 percent to 1,097.84 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 100.67 points, or 1 percent, to 10,096.58 at 11:46 a.m. in New York.....read the entire article.

Crude Oil Rises a Third Day on Recovery in Global Fuel Demand

Crude oil rose for a third day on speculation fuel demand will increase as the global economy emerges from recession. Oil climbed after U.S. equity markets reached their highest in a year Oct. 9, fanning hope for a recovery in world energy consumption. An Investors Business Daily survey due tomorrow in the U.S., the world’s largest energy user, may show consumers were optimistic for a third month, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

“We are looking at an international economy that is going to be stronger in 12 months’ time,” said David Moore, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd. in Sydney. “There’s that conviction that things are going to be better down the track” even when some data is not “especially supportive,” he said. Crude oil for November delivery climbed as much as 79 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $72.56 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $72.23 at 9:26 a.m. Singapore time. Futures have gained 62 percent this year.....Read the entire article.

Invest AD Technical Analysis: Natural Gas May Climb to $7 Dollars

Natural gas may climb to $7 per million British thermal units after the commodity last month rebounded from a long term support level, according to Abu Dhabi-based Invest AD. Natural gas futures have almost doubled to $4.77 per million British thermal units since reaching a more than seven year low on Sept. 4. “Holding above a 20 year support and rebounding sharply from that level, signals an increase in demand for natural gas,” said Aksel Kibar, a portfolio manager at Invest AD, the investment firm owned by the Abu Dhabi Investment Council. “Any break above the $5.00-$5.50 range will push the prices toward the $6 to $7 area.”

Gas for November delivery fell 3.9 percent to $4.77 on the New York Mercantile Exchange Oct. 9. The fuel is down 15 percent this year, while crude oil is up 61 percent. “Natural gas underperformed crude oil in the last 10 years and in September the natural gas and crude oil ratio reached the lowest level in 20 years,” Kibar said. “This clearly shows an oversold condition for natural gas”.....read the entire article.

Oil Pares Weekly Gain as Bernanke Says Fed May Tighten Policy

Crude oil fell in New York, paring its weekly gain, as the dollar climbed after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said monetary policy may be tightened once the economic outlook has “improved sufficiently.” Oil traded near $71 a barrel as the U.S. currency rose against the yen and the euro, damping the investment appeal of commodities including gold. Prices rallied 3 percent yesterday after the dollar declined and the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped.

Bernanke’s remarks have had “a small impact on the immediate market,” said Ken Hasegawa, a commodity derivatives sales manager at broker Newedge in Tokyo. “It shows policy is not decided yet. The trend of the dollar will continue” to give direction to oil prices, he said. Crude oil for November delivery fell as much as 66 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $71.03 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract was at $71.13 at 11:09 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, it rose $2.12 to settle at $71.69. Futures are poised.....Read the entire article.

Crude Oil Falls More Than $1 After U.S. Fuel Supplies Increase

Crude oil fell more than $1 a barrel after a U.S. Energy Department report showed that inventories of gasoline and distillate fuel increased. Gasoline supplies climbed 2.94 million barrels to 214.4 million last week, almost three times the gain forecast by analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. Stockpiles of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, rose to the highest since January 1983. Oil also dropped as the rising dollar curbed the appeal of energy as an inflation hedge.

“This is a very bearish report,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst with Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “The product builds are significant and increase the cushion against any disruption. It takes uncertainty about refiners out of the equation.” Crude oil for November delivery fell $1.31, or 1.9 percent, to $69.57 a barrel at 2:59 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest settlement since Sept. 29. Prices have gained 56 percent this year.....read the entire article

Barclays Technical Analysis: Oil’s Trend Line Key to $75

Crude oil futures may surpass this year’s $75 a barrel high if prices for the most active contract close above their 100 day moving average and a six month trend line, according to technical analysis by Barclays Capital.

November crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange has settled above its 100 day rolling mean each day for the past week. While this signals potential for gains, for prices to rally the contract must also close over a line connecting the lowest points between February and July, Barclays said.

“A close above these indicators would point to a push towards the high end of the range that’s held since the middle of June,” Barclays analyst MacNeil Curry said in a telephone interview from New York“.....Read the entire article.

Oil Rises a Second Day as Weak Dollar Boosts Investment Appeal

Crude oil rose for a second day in New York as the dollar’s decline bolstered the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation. Crude traded near $71 a barrel as the dollar weakened following a report that Arab states held talks on replacing the U.S. currency in oil trades. Saudi Arabia’s central bank Governor Muhammad al-Jasser denied the report. Prices climbed yesterday after data showed U.S. service industries returned to growth following 11 months of contraction.

“The weaker dollar is always supportive for all commodities,” said Tobias Merath, a commodity analyst at Credit Suisse Group in Singapore. “We could see another couple of dollars upside for oil from the dollar, but it won’t be decisive. We’d need some change in the fundamentals to break out of this $68-to-$74 range.” Crude oil for November delivery rose as much as $1.22, or 1.7 percent, to $71.63 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $71.47 a barrel at 1:20 p.m. London time.....Read the entire article

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Crude Oil Declines on Concern U.S. Economic Recovery May Stall

Crude oil declined, paring this week’s gain, as a gauge of U.S. manufacturing unexpectedly fell, jobless claims rose and a stronger dollar bolstered skepticism about the recovery in the biggest energy consuming nation. Oil snapped two days of increases after the number of Americans filing first time claims for unemployment benefits climbed and a report showed manufacturing dropped lower than projected by economists. Oil also fell as the dollar rose to a three week high against the euro.

“Commodities overall took a hit from that negative turn in macro sentiment, combined with the advancing dollar,” said Toby Hassall, a research analyst at CWA Global Markets PTY in Sydney. Crude oil for November delivery dropped as much as 72 cents, or 1 percent, to $70.10 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $70.14 at 8:54 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract rose 21 cents to settle at $70.82.....read the entire article

Oil Poised to Test Resistance in the Mid $70s

Crude oil is poised to enter a “bullish channel” and test resistance at the mid $70 a barrel level after rising the most in almost six months yesterday. If prices close above $71.55 a barrel, oil is set to test resistance at $75.89, according to a technical analysis by Stephen Schork, president of consultant Schork Group Inc. in Villanova, Pennsylvania.

Crude oil for November delivery rose $3.90, or 5.9 percent, to settle at $70.61 a barrel yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. “If you are bearish you’ve got a problem right now,” said Schork. “If the channel holds we’ll get a re test of the low to mid-$70s, which is where resistance has held since the summer”.....read the entire article

Oil Drops as Dollar Rises, Analysts Forecast Supply Increase

Crude oil dropped as a stronger dollar reduced the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment and analysts forecast fuel supplies will climb. Oil futures have almost doubled since February as the dollar declined 17 percent and rising equity markets buoyed investor confidence. U.S. oil and fuel inventories probably increased last week amid refinery maintenance and a sluggish economic recovery.

“The dollar continues to be a leading indicator for oil prices because of the global nature of the asset,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. Crude oil for November delivery declined 13 cents to settle at $66.71 a barrel at 2:44 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil prices have increased 50 percent this year. Futures fell 8.4 percent last week, the biggest drop since the week ended July 10.....Read the entire article

Gas Fund’s Roll ‘Slaughtered’ Speculators, Boosted Volatility

Speculators trying to profit from the U.S. Natural Gas Fund’s roll of futures contracts got “slaughtered” and helped boost volatility as gas prices surged this week, said Adam Felesky, chief executive officer of BetaPro Management Inc.

Gas for October delivery rose 27 percent, through yesterday, on the New York Mercantile Exchange as traders had to cover their bets that the gas fund’s sale of the front month contract would reduce the price, said Felesky. Volatility jumped to the highest level since Amaranth Advisors LLC collapsed in September 2006.

Speculators shorted October gas, anticipating that the $4 billion gas fund would push prices down when it began selling its October contracts on Sept. 14, said Felesky, whose C$1 billion ($937.1 million) Horizons BetaPro Nymex Natural Gas Bull Plus ETF rolled around the same time as the larger fund.....Read the entire story

Natural Gas Extends Gain From Seven Year Low as Economy Lifts

Natural gas advanced, extending its gain to 38 percent from a seven year low earlier this month, on speculation that a rebound in demand will reduce a surplus of the power plant and industrial fuel. Manufacturing in the New York region grew in September at the fastest pace in almost two years and U.S. retail sales jumped in August by the most in three years, economic reports today showed. Gas tumbled to $2.409 per million Btu on Sept. 4, the lowest price since March 2002, on a glut of the fuel.

“The market is starting to count in an economic recovery, which should bring with it an increase in demand,” said Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover Inc., an energy consultant in New Canaan, Connecticut. Natural gas for October delivery rose 2.3 cents, or 0.7 percent, to settle at $3.32 per million British thermal units at 2:51 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange after rising as high as $3.60. Prices are down 41 percent this year.....Read the entire article

Oil Can't Sustain This Week's Rally, Natural Gas Falls Again

After rallying for four days, the price of oil fell more than $2 in trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange Friday. While initially, the price of oil made gains to threaten $73, crude oil eventually fell below $70 a barrel. The price of crude oil fell $2.55 on the NYMEX Friday to settle at $69.29 a barrel and erase the gains made during the week's rally. "Oil was rallying, once again, for reasons other than supply and demand," said Phil Flynn, vice president in charge of research for PFG Best in Chicago. "Earlier in the week, you had all this market momentum: The stock market was rallying every day; the dollar was getting slammed; and oil was rallying really reluctantly all week." The price of oil has been propped up beyond what the underlying fundamentals can support by positive economic data that points to an end to the global recession and an increase in energy demand.....Read the entire article

Oil Hovers Above $68 as US crude Inventories Drop

(AP:LONDON) Oil prices hovered above $68 a barrel Wednesday after a two day plunge as a drop in U.S. crude inventories suggested demand may be recovering. Benchmark crude for October delivery was up 60 cents to $68.29 a barrel by midday European time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract Tuesday lost $1.91 to settle at $68.05. Oil sank almost $5 a barrel in the first two days of the week as investors worried that a global economic recovery this year would be slow and may not justify the big rallies in stocks and commodities since March.

U.S. stock indexes fell about 2 percent Tuesday.

Investors were cheered somewhat when the American Petroleum Institute said late Tuesday that U.S. inventories plunged 3.2 million barrels last week. Analysts had expected the API numbers to drop 1.9 million barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

The Energy Department reports mandatory supply figures later on Wednesday, while refiners voluntarily report the API numbers. There were also signs Tuesday that the U.S. economy the biggest consumer of oil is improving.

The Institute for Supply Management, a trade group of purchasing executives, said its manufacturing index rose in August, indicating an expansion for the first time since January 2008. And the National Association of Realtors said pending U.S. home sales rose to the highest level in more than two years.

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for October delivery rose 1.81 cents to $1.80 a gallon and heating oil gained 2.41 cents to $1.78 a gallon. Natural gas jumped 3.6 cents to $2.86 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, Brent crude was up 67 cents at $68.40.