Potential Takeover Target Anadarko [APC] is Now $9 Billion Cheaper

Anadarko Petroleum's (APC) legal troubles likely haven't tarnished its allure for investors - instead, it has helped make APC $9 billion cheaper, and more appealing for a buyout, Bloomberg reports.

APC may be at the top of the list for multinational oil companies seeking purchases to turn around declining production, analysts say; a buyer willing to shell out $40B plus a premium would get a presence in fields where few big energy companies have exposure: the Niobrara formation in Colorado, Texas’ Eagle Ford shale basin, and offshore Africa.

APC would be an especially good fit for Exxon (XOM) or Chevron (CVX), Oppenheimer's Fadel Gheit says, although it's hard to see how a deal could be serious without a resolution to the Tronox lawsuit, which could leave APC on the hook for as much as $14B in environmental cleanup and health claims.

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Anadarko gets three downgrades after court decision, shares Down 11.5%

Anadarko Petroleum (APC) almost certainly will appeal yesterday's court ruling against it in the Tronox litigation: "We vehemently disagree with the judge's decision... We fully expect to pursue every avenue available to us through the appellate process to protect the interests of our stakeholders, once a final judgment including damages has been rendered."

The severity of the ruling for APC will come down to damages: While the judge found that the trust is entitled to recover $14.17B, APC may be able to lower the figure by $9B for offsetting costs it may have incurred from the Tronox transaction.

J.P. Morgan downgrades APC to Underweight and a $77 price target, while Citi and Global Hunter cut shares to Neutral from Buy; Credit Suisse views $65-$70 as a potential floor level valuation.

Jefferies, maintaining a Buy rating and $111 price target, believes APC could pursue more aggressive dividend/buyback moves to instill shareholder confidence that the ruling will be found excessive.


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