Gold, Silver, Oil and Natural Gas Mid-Week Trading Charts

From guest analyst Chris Vermeulen....

So far this week has been pretty slow. Large cap stocks continue to lag the market which can be observed by looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average which still has room to move higher before breaking the January high.

One important thing to note is that volume has picked up this week considerably, particularly on the SP500 and OEX. It’s difficult to say if this volume is a good sign or not.

A lot of stocks and sectors are trading near their January high and this gives traders a reason to unload shares. On the flip side, the several sectors and indexes have broken their January high and this triggers a surge in volume as breakout traders try to take advantage of the new high and momentum. So you can see how the surge of volume is not a useful indicator right now.

Here are some charts of what I think we could see in the coming weeks.

US Dollar Index – Daily Trading Chart
I follow the US dollar index very closely simply because it affects the prices of stocks and commodities. I used a line chart below in order to take out the daily candle stick noise which made it very difficult for our eyes to pick up this pattern.

The chart shows a possible head & shoulders pattern and if that is the case then we should see the dollar start to slide lower. In turn, this would boost stocks and commodities. This is the fuel that I think could really move the market sharply higher in the coming weeks.



GLD Gold ETF – Daily Trading Chart
The price of gold looks to be setup for a nice bounce off support and the timing could just work out if the US Dollar starts to drop over the next few days. There could be a low risk setup just around the corner.



SLV Silver ETF – Daily Trading Chart
Silver has held up well but today’s reversal candle to the downside scares me a little. The odds are that silver will carry this strong momentum selling down for another 1-2 days. Again, with any luck, it will test support and the US Dollar will start to slide lower.



Crude Oil – Daily Trading Chart
Oil has had a great run the past month but as you can see it’s currently trading at the top of a large trading range. I would like to see a sideways move before it takes another run at the $84 level, but the 7 day bull flag that formed two weeks ago may have been enough to maintain the upward momentum. Again, if the Dollar drops we will see oil rally.



Natural Gas – Daily Trading Chart
This chart is actually very attractive looking. Even if you do not understand how to read charts I think it’s safe to say this one is a no brainer.

I will be closely watching for a potential low risk setup in the coming days.


Mid-Week Trading Conclusion:
In short, stocks and indexes are trading at resistance levels with many of them making new highs and that is great to see.

A lot of things are trading in limbo waiting to see what the US Dollar is going to do. Several months ago I posted some charts showing that 81 would be a key resistance level for the dollar. If it broke above that then 84 would be the next key level to watch. So we just have to wait and see… the hardest part of trading is the waiting.

Gold, silver, oil and natural gas all look like they could continue higher in the next few days if things unfold that quickly. But the market always finds a way to drag out moves so we could still be a 2-3 weeks away.

I hope this report helps give you an idea of where things are at in the market.

Just click here to receive Chris Vermeulens Free Trading Reports and Analysis.


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Gold, Silver, Platinum...W.T.F.?!

Today we have a great new video for you. I’m sure many of you read that title and your mind went in the gutter, but today we going to show you a whole new meaning for this acronym and how it applies to gold, silver, and platinum.

These three markets have a lot of volume, government implications, and technicals lining up for potentially great trades. Gold makes a record high, then pulls back. Silver is inching towards an all time high level and platinum is making people rethink their decision to go with a white gold wedding band.

Where do you stand in these markets and maybe more importantly, where should you stand?

Just click here to watch the video and to find out what W.T.F. really stands for and what does it have to do with gold, silver, and platinum?

You’ve got to watch the video to find out.

Good trading,
Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO The Crude Oil Trader

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Spot 60 Minute Trends for Gold, Oil, Natural Gas, and Indexes

Welcome back everyone! It’s time to buckle up and get ready for another exciting year of trading.

When the market is moving on light volume I tend to focus on very short term plays to minimize my exposure to volatility. The past couple of weeks have been great for day traders and futures trades as we took advantage of the short term seasonal holiday rally in the broad market and also by shorting gold when bounces reached resistance levels.

This year I will be providing many more trades as I focus more on 60 minute trading charts to scalp the market with low risk quick reward setups. Also I will start providing futures trading analysis and signals for those who want to be more active and generate more income on a monthly basis.

DIA – Dow Jones Exchange Traded Fund – 60 Minute Chart
The Dow has been trading in this range for a couple weeks providing some excellent short plays. Although I tell members not to short in a bull market, there are times when shorting in a bull market looks and feels right. The past month has been the perfect mix for shorting using the 60 minute charts.



GLD – Gold Exchange Traded Fund – 60 Minute Chart
Gold is in a strong bull market but the short term charts have provided over 13 short trades in the past 2 weeks for futures traders playing the bounces to resistance levels. The triangle on the 60 minute chart with declining volume is a continuation pattern of the short term trend which is down.

Because gold is trading near a support level on the daily chart, I am waiting patiently for a perfect setup to go short, or long depending on what happens in the coming hours. I predict lower prices with $102 area for the next support level.



UNG – Natural Gas Fund – 60 Minute Chart
Natural gas is trading at resistance on the daily and weekly charts. This 60 minute chart allows us to take a closer look at the intraday momentum which clearly shows there are more sellers than buyers at this level. I see lower prices in the coming hours/days.

UNG not a good fund for holding positions more than 2 weeks, it does provide excellent trading opportunities for day traders and 60 minute chart setups.



USO – Crude Oil Fund – 60 Minute Chart
Crude oil had a perfect bounce off of a support level on the weekly and daily charts back on the 14th. Oil is now trading at a short term resistance level and I feel it will head lower in the coming days. We still need more price action before taking a position. Let’s watch and wait.



Trends of Gold, Dow, Oil and Natural Gas Conclusion
The broad market and commodities listed above seem to be trading at resistance levels with signs of rolling over. As a technical trader the charts do all the talking and they are pointing to lower prices in the near term which falls in line with my gut feeling that a sharp pullback across the board is lurking in January. Once the big money start getting pushed around again we will know who is in control, buyers or sellers.

Let’s continue to focus on these short term charts to take advantage of any low risk setups which come our way.

Just click here to get these Free Weekly Trend Trading Charts Emailed to you.



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Year End Commodity & ETF Trend Trading Signals

Well, here we are with only hours left before the year is over. Virtually every investment is up other than the US dollar. Not much has changed since my last gold market trends report. But I have provided some interesting charts that show us what is possible in the coming weeks for the dollar, gold and natural gas.

US Dollar Trend Analysis – Resistance Levels
The dollar has shown some strength in the past month. It was a no brainer trade for 2009. You were either long gold or short the dollar. The chart below shows the key resistance levels for the $USD. I have a feeling we are going to see the dollar test the 80 -81 levels before rolling over and heading south again.

If this happens then gold and silver will continue to pull back. I am actually hoping the dollar moves higher and gold drops back to test the $1000-1060 level. This would clear the way for gold and the dollar to continue with their longer term trends with increased momentum (dollar collapses, gold goes parabolic).



GLD Gold ETF – Daily Chart
The daily gold swing trading chart is really starting to look attractive for a buy signal. Depending on what the US dollar does in the coming days will set the tone for gold.

We could see gold start to rally starting tomorrow or it will become volatile and start to sell off sharply in the coming days. Right now we have very light volume so any moves/breakouts cannot be taken seriously or with a large position.

If the dollar starts to rally we could see the GLD ETF drop to the $97.50 – $103 level.



Spot Gold Trend Analysis – 18 Day, 1hr Bar Chart
Starting in 2010 I will be providing futures trading analysis and signals so I thought I would provide a chart of the spot gold trend I have been day trading over the holidays.

This may seem like I am going against my #1 trading Rule – Never Trade Against the Trend, but the trend changes depending on time frame and trading style you are using. In short, gold reversed very strong 18 days ago just as we anticipated it would. The selling momentum was so strong it made for excellent gold futures day trading setups which I took advantage of over the past 10 trading days.

The chart below is of the 100 ounce gold GC Feb 10 futures contract which I traded. The chart is shrunk down and does not show my setups, nor does the chart look very sexy, but it clearly shows the direction of the trend and the BIG SELLING VOLUME.

The table shows my recent trades and if you take a close look all of the trades I did were Short Trades. Because the momentum and trend is down on this time frame I only traded perfect short setups (profiting from gold as it loses value).



UNG Natural Gas Trading Fund
UNG appears to be trading at resistance and starting to look like its rolling over. It did move above last weeks high which voids the reversal candle we had Tuesday and Thursday, or else it would have been a short setup for us. I don’t chase a trade, that’s my #2 rule, so I am waiting for a possible bounce here, test of resistance then another reversal back down.



Commodity & ETF Year End Trends
In short, we continue the waiting game for more setups in the coming weeks as volatility and volume creep back into the market. The dollar and gold are currently trading at pivot points and no one knows which way to play them.

Trading futures run virtually 24 hours a day and have provided some excellent trading opportunities that I will be providing in the coming weeks for traders.

Natural Gas is trading at pivot point and looking ready for another move down.

Crude oil and the board market I feel will top out in the next 2-5 days but nothing worth putting any money on at this time.

I would like to thank everyone for their kind words and support over the past 12 months. I wish you all a happy and safe New Years!

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