The Fed Taper Explained by SPX Options

From our trading partner options guru J.W. Jones......

With the last major news item for 2013 less than 48 hours away, I thought I would share some insights as to what the S&P 500 Cash Index (SPX) options were pricing into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement due out Wednesday.

After the news is released and the week ends, it will be time for Santa Claus to come to Wall Street. While most people believe in the Santa Claus rally, what few understand is the bullish undertones that traditionally accompany a triple witching event.

This coming Friday, is a triple expiration. Equity options, index options, and futures contracts will be expiring this Friday. This event is traditionally known as “triple witching” and historically the quarterly expiration event ushers in serious bullishness.

According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, “In the 31 years since the creation of equity index futures, the S&P500 has risen 74% of the time during this week. More recently, it has risen in ten of the past 12 years.” The chart shown below was posted on zerohedge.com and was provided by Bank of America Merrill Lynch......Read "The Fed Taper Explained by SPX Options"



Get our "Gold and Crude Oil Trade Ideas"

While the Fed Parties, Gold & Crude Oil Have Left the Building

From guest blogger and trading partner J.W. Jones.....

Risk assets and financial markets around the world have been supported by central bank action for several years. Performing financial alchemy on a scale larger than has been seen in the history of mankind, central banks have hijacked global financial markets. Mountains of liquidity, artificially low interest rates, and the creation of future asset bubbles has been their calling card for the past few years.

Unfortunately, time is starting to run out and these great Keynesian minds are on the verge of encountering a series of problems. While central banks can create fiat currency out of thin air, they cannot create real wealth. In fact, central banks cannot print jobs, earnings growth, or an increase in wages.

Furthermore, in a paper put out by the New York Federal Reserve in 2012 and covered by zerohedge.com (“Fed Confused Reality Doesn’t Conform to Its Economic Models, Shocked Its Models Predict Explosive Inflation”) the Fed openly admits that forward outcomes cannot be predicted with accuracy by their economic models. Furthermore, one of the models known as the Smets and Wouters Model has predicted significant inflation if interest rates were held near zero for more than 8 quarters.

For inquiring minds, I would forward readers to the zerohedge.com article for a more in depth explanation. Ultimately the Federal Reserve is performing a gigantic experiment in real time while admitting their economic models do not accurately portray outcomes in the future. Nowhere can this be seen more than in recent price action in U.S. Treasury prices.

Since mid-November of 2012, the 30 Year Treasury Bond has seen prices go down by roughly 9% in value. When Treasury prices are falling, interest rates are rising as there is an inverse relationship between bond prices and yields. When longer term Treasury bonds are demonstrating rising interest rates it is a signal that the bond market is expecting higher inflation levels out into the future......

Let's look at the weekly chart of the 30 Year Treasury Bond and much more.


Join our FREE Newsletter Today!